CS:GO DFS Playbook – IEM Katowice 2021 Event 2.27.2021 (2-Match)

Spirit (Ranked 7th in World) @ Gambit (Ranked 15th in World)

Betting Odds: Spirit -145/Gambit +110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three semi-final match for the IEM Katowice Event.

*Spirit For Event: mir 1.22 Rating, sdy 1.15, degster 1.11, chopper 1.09, magixx 1.03.

*Spirit For Last Month of Play (26 Maps): mir 1.27 Rating, degster 1.23, sdy 1.10, chopper 1.09, magixx 1.05

*Spirt For Last Three Months of Play (43 Maps) degster 1.25 Rating, mir 1.22, sdy 1.08, chopper 1.05, magixx 1.05

*Gambit For Event: sh1ro 1.36 Rating, Hobbit 1.13, Ax1Le 1.11, interz 1.05, Nafany 1.01.

*Gambit For Last Month of Play (31 Maps): sh1ro 1.26 Rating, Hobbit 1.16, Ax1Le 1.11, Nafany 0.96, interz 0.95.

*Gambit For Last Three Months of Play (66 Maps): sh1ro 1.26 Rating, Hobbit 1.18, Ax1Le 1.16, Nafany 1.03, interz 1.00.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played three matches recently with one being a Grand Final at the DreamHack Open November 2020 Event with Gambit winning 3-1. Gambit has won the last two matches, and Spirit won the latter match at the IEM New York 2020 CIS Event. Both best of three matches went full three maps

*Top Performers for Spirit vs Gambit (10 Maps): degster (7 Maps) +16 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.07 Rating. mir +7 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.14 Rating. Magixx +15 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.12 Rating.

*Top Performers for Gambit vs Spirit (13 Maps): sh1ro +108 K-D Diff, 1.63 K-D, 1.36 Rating (hol-ee shit). Ax1Le +14 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.09 Rating. Hobbit +5 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.09 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for Gambit and Vertigo for Spirit. Gambit continues to go with Overpass, and they should stick with it as Spirit have not been good on it only winning 33% of their last three maps played there. Spirit is likely going to go with Inferno, as they beat Gambit on this map in their last meeting.

*Spirit on Inferno (6 Maps): sdy 1.31 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 83.1 ADR. degster 1.23, Mir 1.22, chopper 1.09, magixx 1.05. On Overpass (3 Maps): degster 1.12 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 78.0 ADR. Mir 1.10, sdy 1.05, magixx 0.98, chopper 0.85.

*Gambit on Overpass (11 Maps): sh1ro 1.25 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 77.6 ADR. Hobbit 1.22, Ax1Le 1.09, Nafany 1.09, interz 1.04. On Inferno (14 Maps): sh1ro 1.25 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 77.0 ADR. Ax1Le 1.07, interz 1.04, Hobbit 1.03, Nafany 0.95.

Analysis:  This is going to be a banger of a match first off, but I believe I have to side with Gambit here. I just feel that sh1ro is playing on another level, they have faired well against Spirit in head-to-head prior meetings, and Gambit has just played so well as a team in this Event. I think it could easily go three maps, and I think we likely see Dust2 or Train as a decider, but both teams have a wide map-pool. I am going with the favorite in this one in Gambit to win a close 2-1 or 2-0 match.

 

Liquid (Ranked 5th in World) @ Virtus.Pro (Ranked 6th in World)

Betting Odds: Virtus.Pro -170/Liquid +130

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three semi-finals match for the IEM Katowice 2021 Event.

*Liquid For Event: EliGE 1.26 Rating, NAF 1.16, FalleN 1.12, Stewie2K 1.02, Grim 0.98.

*Liquid For Last Month of Play (18 Maps): EliGE 1.22 Rating, NAF 1.12, FalleN 1.00, Stewie2K 0.98, Grim 0.94.

*Liquid For Last Three Months of Play (46 Maps): EliGE 1.14 Rating, NAF 1.12, FalleN 1.01, Grim 0.99, Stewie2K 0.94.

*Virtus.Pro For Event: YEKINDAR 1.30 Rating, Jame 1.19, buster 1.14, qikert 1.02, SANJI 0.90.

*Virtus.Pro For Last Month of Play (27 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.28 Rating, Jame 1.24, buster 1.09, qikert 1.04, SANJI 0.99.

*Virtus.Pro For Last Three Months of Play (60 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.18 Rating, Jame 1.17, buster 1.10, qikert 1.06, SANJI 0.97.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for V.Pro and Train for Liquid. I believe we see Dust2 for V.Pro (80% success in last 10 > 33% for Liquid over last six) and Inferno for Liquid (favors V.Pro as well 83% success in last 12 + 7-match win streak > 54% success for Liquid over last 12).

*V.Pro on Dust2 (10 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.30 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 90.1 ADR. Qikert 1.19, Jame 1.19, buster 1.09, SANJI 1.01. On Inferno (12 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.16 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 82.7 ADR. Buster 1.15, Jame 1.15, qikert 1.08, SANJI 0.90.

*Liquid on Inferno (13 Maps): EliGE 1.15 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 78.3 ADR. NAF 1.07, Grim 0.93, Stewie2k 0.91, FalleN 0.90. On Dust2 (6 Maps): EliGE 1.09 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 84.2 ADR. NAF 1.08, Stewie2K 1.04, Grim 1.03, FalleN 0.82.

Analysis: Hate to stick to the chalk in both matches, but I love Virtus.Pro in this match. They are the much stronger team lately and their map-pool is WIDE with multiple map-win streaks going. I feel this could be a V.Pro sweep to be flat out honest. Would it shock me to see Liquid steal a map? No. However, the numbers are pretty skewed in terms of V.Pro here.

 

*TOP STACKS: Virtus.Pro, Gambit

*TOP CPT PLAYS: sh1ro, Jame, YEKINDAR, Hobbit, degster, mir

*TOP VALUES: buster, Hobbit, qikert, interz, sdy, NAF

*DART THROWS: magixx, SANJI