CS:GO DFS Playbook – European Development Championship 2 Event 2.23.2021 (2-Match)
Sinners (Ranked 24th in World) @ HellRaisers (Ranked 38th in World)
Betting Odds: Sinners -215/HellRaisers +165
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -155
*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the European Development Championship 2 Event.
*NOTE – HellRaisers have a player that is to be announced still, likely they won’t be in the player pool.
*Sinners For Event: oskar 1.30 Rating, NEOFRAG 1.08, ZEDKO 1.03, beastik 1.02, SHOCK 0.93.
*Sinners For the Last Three Months of Play: oskar 1.18 Rating, NEOFRAG 1.18, ZEDKO 1.07, beastik 0.99, SHOCK 0.99.
*HellRaisers For Event: JlaYm 1.07 Rating, ProbLeM 1.04, kalinka 0.89, Flarich 0.88.
*HellRaisers For the Last Three Months: ProbLeM 1.09 Rating, kalinka 1.07, JlaYm 1.04, Flarich 0.94.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played once in 2021 with Sinners winning in a 2-1 result with map wins of Dust2 16-11 and Inferno 16-14, while HellRaisers were able to take Train 16-14 pushing it to a third map.
*Top Performers For Sinners (3 Maps): oksar +22 K-D, 1.27 Rating, 83.8 ADR. NEOFRAG +14 K-D Diff, 1.26 Rating, 85.7 ADR. SHOCK +6 K-D Diff, 1.09 Rating, 78.9 ADR.
*Top Performers For HellRaisers (3 Maps): Flarich +3 K-D Diff, 0.97 Rating, 63.7 ADR. ProbLeM +2 K-D Diff, 1.06 Rating, 78.6 ADR.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Overpass and Vertigo. I believe we see HellRaisers go back to Train and Sinners go with Inferno. Train has been a great map for HellRaisers as they have won 65% of their last 22 tries there, while Sinners just 34% of their last 15. Sinners leads with Inferno however, as they have won 80% of their last 25 attempts there, while HellRaisers not far off at 57% of their last 14 tries.
*HellRaisers on Train (22 Maps): ProbLeM 1.09 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.03 IM, 79.7 ADR. Kalinka 1.06, JlaYm 1.06, Flarich 0.95. On Inferno (14 Maps): ProbLeM 1.20 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 84.2 ADR. Kalinka 1.16, JlaYm 1.07, Flarich 1.04.
*Sinners on Inferno (24 Maps): oskar 1.32 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 80.4 ADR. NEOFRAG 1.18, ZEDKO 1.10, SHOCK 1.09, beastik 1.07. On Train (14 Maps): oksar 1.19 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 80.7 ADR. NEOFRAG 1.01, ZEDKO 0.94, SHOCK 0.91, beastik 0.86.
Analysis: This is not a great feeling for HellRaisers as they come into this match without a fifth player at the time, and this could really mess up their chemistry. This also isn’t a team in the Sinners that you would not want to be prepared for, and for that reason I think we see Sinners take this match, and likely somewhat easily.
Sprout (Ranked 21st In World) @ sAw (Ranked 22nd In World)
Betting Odds: Sprout -150/sAw +115
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -150
*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the European Development Championship 2 Event.
*Sprout For Event: Kressy 1.13 Rating, slaxz- 1.09, faveN 1.04, Spiidi 1.02, deniz 0.99.
*Sprout For the Last Three Months of Play: faveN 1.19 Rating, slaxz- 1.13, kressy 1.06, Spiidi 1.06, denis 1.01.
*sAw For Event: stadodo 1.22 Rating, JUST 1.21, MUTiRiS 1.10, arki 1.08, rmn 1.03.
*sAw For the Last Three Months of Play: stadodo 1.18 Rating, JUST 1.07, MUTiRiS 1.03, arki 1.01, rmn 0.98.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have an extensive history of head-to-head matches; however, Sprout has two new faces on their team that they did not have in their most recent meeting and we all know how much two players can change the make-up of a team.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for sAw and Overpass for Sprout. Sprout continues to pick Dust2 as their first map (winning it 67%>SaW 62%), and sAw is choosing Vertigo 42% of the time and hold that success rate at 50%>45% for Sprout.
*sAw on Vertigo (4 Maps) JUST 1.14 Rating, 0.63 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 77.9 ADR. MUTiRiS 1.13, arki 1.10, stadodo 1.07, rmn 0.94. On Dust2 (13 Maps): stadodo 1.39 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.48 IMP, 89.9 ADR. MUTiRiS 1.08, JUST 1.07, rmn 1.00, arki 0.98.
*Sprout on Dust2 (15 Maps): faveN 1.27 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 86.8 ADR. Slaxz- 1.16, Spiidi 1.08, denis 1.03, kressy 0.96. On Vertigo (11 Maps): faveN 1.13 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 82.0 ADR. Spiidi 1.08, kressy 1.03, denis 1.00, slaxz 0.90.
Analysis: I honestly don’t see much of a reason for sprout to be a 1.5-to-1 favorite in this match. On paper, these teams are so closely matched in terms of stats and talent. Sprout is on a three-map winning streak heading into this one, so likely that is why the bigger spread in their favor. I think sAw can win this match, and I think this will be a very close match.
*TOP STACKS: Sinners, sAw
*TOP CPT PLAYS: oskar, stadodo, faveN, NEOFRAG, JUST, slaxz-
*TOP VALUE PLAYS: MUTiRiS, Spiidi, ZEDKO, SHOCK, ProbLeM