CS:GO DFS Playbook – European Development Championship 2 - 2.22.2021 (2- Match)
Nemiga (Ranked 27th in World) @ forZe (Ranked 26th in World)
Betting Odds: Nemiga -120/forZe -105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the European Development Championship 2 Event.
*Nemiga For Event: boX 1.45 Rating, Jyo 1.33, lollipop21k 1.28, mds 1.15, speed4k 0.98.
*Nemiga For the Last Three Months of Play: lollipop21k 1.20 Rating, Jyo 1.06, boX 1.01, mds 0.97, speed4k 0.91.
*forZe For Event: Jerry 1.26 Rating, zorte 1.20, KENSI 1.17, FL1T 1.08, almazer 0.90.
*forZe For the Last Three Months of Play: zorte 1.18 Rating, Fl1T 1.17, KENSI 1.14, Jerry 1.07, almazer 0.98.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played six total matches dating back to 2020. Nemiga has won all six, five being best of three series and a single best of one map. There has only been one best of three go three maps, the other four best of threes resulted in a Nemiga sweep.
*Top Performers for Nemiga vs forZe (10 Maps): lollipop2k +90 K-D Diff, 1.57 K-D, 1.40 Rating. Speed4k +16 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.05 Rating. boX +11 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.16 Rating.
*Top Performers for forZe vs Nemiga (10 Maps): zorte +8 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.10 Rating. FL1T +4 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train for Nemiga and Vertigo for forZe. Both teams have taken a liking to Inferno lately, so we can likely pencil that one in. I also think we see Nuke.
*Nemiga on Nuke (7 Maps): lollipop21k 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 81.3 ADR. Jyo 1.04, boX 1.03, speed4k 0.96, mds 0.93. On Inferno (8 Maps): lollipop21k 1.25 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 86.5 ADR. boX 1.23, speed4k 1.06, Jyo 1.05, mds 1.00.
*forZe on Inferno (11 Maps): KENSI 1.12 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 77.4 ADR. Jerry 1.10, zorte 1.07, almazer 1.06, FL1T 1.05. On Nuke (11 Maps): zorte 1.24 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 80.7 ADR. FL1T 1.14, KENSI 1.13, Jerry 1.07, almazer 1.00.
Analysis: The last meeting between these two teams resulted in two OT maps before Nemiga pulled out the win. The last three maps played between these two teams have been decided by OT and have seen the loser win at least 16 rounds. (19-16, 22-19, 22-20). I would like to think forZe could likely steal a map, but it has been a bit since they were able to do so as they were swept in three of their prior three best of threes against Nemiga. However, the odds really aren’t that much into Nemiga’s favor here, but the odds on the Under 2.5 Maps is decently juiced at the time, which means we could get a close 2-0 sweep from Nemiga like we have been seeing from this series in the past.
Budapest Five (Ranked 57th in World) @ Movistar Riders (Ranked 23rd in World)
Betting Odds: Movistar Riders -455/Budapest Five +305
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +150/Under -205
*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the European Development Championship 2 Event.
*Budapest Five For Event: kory 1.36 Rating, torzsi 1.23, kolor 1.16, fleav 1.09, Coolio 1.06.
*Budapest Five For the Last Three Months of Play: torzsi 1.18 Rating, fleav 1.07, kory 1.06, kolor 0.99, Coolio 0.96.
*Movistar Riders For Event: shokz 1.22 Rating, alex 1.18, smooya 1.15, steel 1.07, mopoz 1.05.
*Movistar Riders For the Last Three Months of Play: smooya 1.34 Rating, mopoz 1.15, shokz 1.09, alex 1.03, steel 1.01.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches lately.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Overpass for Budapest Five and Dust2 for Movistar Riders. Budapest Five have been going with Nuke roughly 43% as their first map choice lately, while Movistar has been going with Overpass, which will be banned. Their next most-chosen map lately has been Train, and they have won it at a 70% clip with a four-map winning streak.
*Budapest Five on Nuke (11 Maps): torzsi 1.18 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 80.6 ADR. Fleav 1.06, kory 1.00, Coolio 0.97, kolor 0.91. On Train (13 Maps): torzsi 1.31 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 86.7 ADR. Fleav 1.19, kory 1.19, kolor 1.04, Coolio 1.02.
*Movistar Riders on Train (10 Maps): smooya (3 Maps) 1.33 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 83.0 ADR. Alex 1.11, mopoz 1.11, steel 1.03, shokz 1.03. On Nuke (13 Maps): smooya (7 Maps) 1.40 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 82.5 ADR. Mopoz 1.16, alex 1.04, shokz 1.01, steel 0.98.
Analysis: I get that Movistar Riders got smooya and all, but it feels like the vegas odds on this match are a bit inflated due to that fact. Movistar were swept by Cloud9 in their most recent match and beat 16-6 at the hands of BIG in a best of one before that. Buda Five haven’t exactly been facing top-tier competition but they have won three of their last four matches and have had two weeks off to prepare for this match. I think this match is much closer than the odds are showing, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Buda Five won this match.
*TOP STACKS: Nemiga, Budapest Five
*TOP CPT PLAYS: lollipop2k, boX, Jyo, torzsi, smooya, zorte
*TOP VALUES: fleav, mds, FL1T, mopoz, shokz, KENSI, speed4k