CS:GO DFS Playbook – IEM Katowice 2021 Event 2.18.2021 (4-Match)
Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 14th in World)
Betting Odds: Astralis -415/Mousesports +285
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +145/Under -195
*This is a best of three group A upper-bracket quarter-final match for the IEM Katowice Event.
*Astralis Over the Last Month of Play (17 Maps): dupreeh 1.17 Rating, device 1.10, Magisk 1.04, Xyp9x 1.00, gla1ve 0.99.
*Astralis Over the Last Three Months of Play (61 Maps): device 1.21 Rating, dupreeh 1.11, Magisk 1.06, Xyp9x 1.01, gla1ve 0.99.
*Mousesports Over the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): ropz 1.21 Rating, frozen 1.20, acoR 1.03, Bymas 0.95, dexter 0.89.
*Mousesports Over the Last Three Months of Play (40 Maps): ropz 1.18 Rating, frozen 1.15, Bymas 1.06, acoR 1.03, dexter 0.89.
H2H Data:
*These two teams both have faces that have alternated in-and-out of their past meetings, and Mouse has two brand new faces in acoR and dexter that have yet to face Astralis with the new team. I feel it’s a bit of a dis-service to include any past H2H data for these two teams, since I could be a bit misleading.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Overpass for Mouse. Both teams have found mutual love for Nuke as their most picked map lately, and I would think Mouse will likely go with it either way, but I think we could also see either Dust2 or Inferno. Both teams like all three of these maps, and they have played them numerous times in their recent matches. I believe we see Nuke and Dust2 here however.
*Mouse on Nuke (8 Maps): acoR (3 Maps): 1.29 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 83.4 ADR. Ropz 1.24, frozen 1.19, dexter 1.17, Bymas 0.99. On Dust2 (5 Maps): ropz 1.28 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 86.4 ADR. Frozen 1.09, dexter 1.08, Bymas 0.99, acoR 0.96.
*Astralis on Dust2 (13 Maps): device 1.24 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 81.2 ADR. Dupreeh 1.13, Magisk 1.10, gla1ve 1.07, Xyp9x 1.05. On Nuke (9 Maps): device 1.21 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 85.6 ADR. Magisk 1.02, Xyp9x 1.00, dupreeh 0.93, gla1ve 0.92.
Analysis: Astralis has not played very well lately and have dropped three of their last four matches, all three losses were sweeps to boot by BIG, NiP, and NaVi. Mouse looks like a MUCH stronger team with acoR and beat a surging Complexity team yesterday in a 2-1 result. I believe we could easily see Mouse win Nuke, and I think they have a shot at winning this match. Dexter is a veteran player, so we saw that he meshed pretty well after getting in a few maps with the new team in the win over Complexity.
Heroic (Ranked 6th in World) @ BIG (Ranked 4th in World)
Betting Odds: BIG -145/Heroic +115
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
*This is a best of three group A upper-bracket quarter-final match for the IEM Katowice Event.
*Heroic Over the Last Month of Play (11 Maps): TeSeS 1.11 Rating, stavn 1.10, cadiaN 1.07, niko 1.03, b0RUP 0.95.
*Heroic Over the Last Three Months of Play (32 Maps): stavn 1.08 Rating, TeSeS 1.06, cadiaN 1.05, niko 1.00, b0RUP 0.90.
*BIG Over the Last Month of Play (26 Maps): syrsoN 1.22 Rating, tabseN 1.16, XANTARES 1.14, k1to 1.01, tiziaN 1.00.
*BIG Over the Last Three Months of Play (60 Maps): syrsoN 1.17 Rating, XANTARES 1.12, tabseN 1.05, tiziaN 1.00, k1to 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played 7 total matches over the last calendar year with BIG winning 4 of the 7 matches played, yet Heroic have won the last three of four prior matches. Also, three of the last four matches have seen all three maps be played, as well.
*BIG vs Heroic (17 Maps): syrsoN +13 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.06 Rating. XANTARES +3 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
*Heroic vs BIG (17 Maps): cadiaN +44 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.12 Rating. Niko +44 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 115 Rating. stavn +29 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.14 Rating. TeSeS +11 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.16 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Train for BIG. Out of the last five matches these two have played – Vertigo, Mirage and Nuke has shown up three times, Overpass two times, Inferno two times. I think we see Mirage and Vertigo for this match.
*BIG on Mirage (7 Maps): syrsoN 1.22 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 73.4 ADR. tabseN 1.11, tiziaN 1.02, XANTARES 1.01, k1to 0.93. On Vertigo (9 Maps): XANTARES 1.27 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 87.0 ADR. tabseN 1.17, syrsoN 1.16, tiziaN 1.14, k1to 1.02.
*Heroic on Vertigo (5 Maps): TeSeS 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.51 IMP, 87.4 ADR. Stavn 1.16, cadiaN 1.06, niko 0.92, b0RUP 0.88. On Mirage (6 Maps): TeSeS 1.18 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 80.1 ADR. Stavn 1.16, niko 1.12, cadiaN 0.99, b0RUP 0.93.
Analysis: These two teams as so very familiar with each other and these H2H matches are usually always bangers. I think we likely once again see three-maps here, as this has been a common occurrence when these two meet, and I think we see BIG take this one down for their second win out of their last five tries. BIG has been playing well as of late and have played lots of maps lately. Think they come prepared and are looking to avenge their loss to them most recently in the DreamHack Open Fall 2020 Event back in November.
FaZe (Ranked 17th in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 7th in World)
Betting Odds: FaZe -145/Liquid +110
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
*This is a best of three group B upper-bracket quarter-final match for the IEM Katowice 2021 Event.
*NOTE – Karrigan is the returning and newly added IGL once again for FaZe, so he is playing now instead of Olofmeister.
*FaZe Over the Last Month of Play (17 Maps): Karrigan 1.23 Rating, Twist 1.15, broky 1.02, rain 1.01 coldzera 1.00.
*FaZe Over the Last Three Months of Play (29 Maps): broky 1.02 Rating, Twistzz 1.02, coldzera 1.00, Karrigan 1.00, rain 0.99.
*Liquid Over the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): NAF 1.16 Rating, EliGE 1.13, Grim 0.97, FalleN 0.96, Stewie2K 0.94.
*Liquid Over the Last Three Months of Play (44 Maps): EliGE 1.11 Rating, NAF 1.11, Grim 1.02, FalleN 0.96, Stewie2K 0.94.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played twice so far in 2021, but Karrigan was not a part of the FaZe team for these two. However, FaZe handed Liquid a sweep in both matches.
*Top Performers for FaZe (4 Maps): Twistzz +21 K-D Diff, 1.34 K-D diff, 1.19 Rating. Coldzera +17 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.11 Rating. Broky +16 K-D Diff, 1.26 K-D, 1.21 Rating. Rain +16 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.26 Rating.
*Top Performers for Liquid (4 Maps): No positive stat-lines for the sample with EliGE closest one at -10 K-D Diff, rest are all over -20 K-D Diff.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Vertigo for FaZe. I believe we see Nuke and Dust2 for this match.
*FaZe on Nuke (9 Maps): Twistzz 1.12 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.90 IMP, 74.6 ADR. Rain 1.11, broky 1.06, coldzera 1.03, Karrigan 0.91. On Dust2 (7 Maps): broky 1.12 Rating 0.71 KPR, 0.98 IMP, 77.2 ADR. Coldzera 1.06, rain 1.01, Twistzz 0.91, Karrigan 0.90.
*Liquid on Dust2 (6 Maps): NAF 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 79.2 ADR. EliGE 1.18, Grim 1.18, Stew 1.03, FalleN 0.95. On Nuke (11 Maps): NAF 1.17 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 82.0 ADR. EliGE 1.11, Grim 1.01, FalleN 0.91, Stew 0.89.
Analysis: I think I like the call for Liquid to make FalleN the IGL now going forward. I think that allows some pressure off Stewie and allows him to be a better entry-frag for this team and can help create more space. I think we see a totally different match here in the third match for these two teams in just the last couple of weeks after Liquid has been totally embarrassed in both. I think we see Liquid get a revenge match here, and they always say third time is a charm!
Vitality (Ranked 3rd in World) @ OG (Ranked 13th in World)
Betting Odds: Vitality -230/OG +170
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -155
*This is a best of three match group B upper-bracket quarter-final match for the IEM Katowice Event.
*Vitality Over the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): ZywOo 1.28 Rating, shox 1.03, RpK 0.91, misutaaa 0.91, Nivera 0.89.
*Vitality Over the Last Three Months of Play (43 Maps): ZywOo 1.33 Rating, shox 1.09, Nivera 1.07, misutaaa 1.05, RpK 1.02.
*OG Over the Last Month of Play (25 Maps): valde 1.15 Rating, mantuu 1.13, ISAA 1.06, Aleksib 1.04, NBK 1.03.
*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play (50 Maps): valde 1.20 Rating, mantuu 1.12, NBK 1.05, Aleksib 1.03, ISSAA 1.02.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played twice in 2020 with Vitality winning the most recent match in a 2-0 sweep at the CS_Summit 6 Euro and OG winning the latter match in a 2-1 result back in ESL Pro League Season 11 Euro.
*Top Performers For Vitality (5 Maps): misutaaa +18 K-D Diff, zywOo +10 K-D Diff, RpK +6 K-D Diff.
*Top Performers for OG (5 Maps): ISSAA +10 K-D Diff.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for OG and Train for Vitality. I believe we see OG go back to Inferno even though they haven’t picked it lately and I think we see Vitality go with Dust2.
*OG on Inferno (14 Maps): valde 1.20 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 80.3 ADR. NBK 1.13, mantuu 1.00, ISSAA 0.99, Aleksib 0.97. On Dust2 (23 Maps): valde 1.20 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 82.5 ADR. NBK 1.11, mantuu 1.05, Aleksib 1.01, ISSAA 0.96.
*Vitality on Dust2 (10 Maps): zywOo 1.49 Rating, 0.96 KPR, 1.59 IMP, 96.5 ADR. Nivera 1.03, shox 1.02, RpK 0.89. On Inferno (9 Maps): zywOo 1.28 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 84.7 ADR. Misutaaa 1.18, Nivera 1.12, RpK 1.11, shox 0.72.
Analysis: OG has played extremely well as of late and Vitality should be looking to get back on the winning side of things. Vitality isn’t as confidence-backed as we would like to think in this match up by Vegas and that makes me think they really have a legit shot of winning this match with their current form. Vitality is not only having to work with a new IGL in shox with apEX taking this Event off, but they are also having to play certain players on maps they likely would have been subbed-out on if apEX were playing. Some intangibles working against Vitality still and OG is running like a well-oiled machine at the moment.
*TOP STACKS: Liquid, OG, BIG
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Liquid, OG
*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, device, EliGE, NAF, valde, syrsoN, XANTARES, mantuu,
*TOP VALUES: tabseN, Stewie2K, ISSAA, dupreeh, ropz, frozen, TeSeS, Xyp9x