CS:GO DFS Playbook – IEM Katowice 2021 Play-In Event (4-Match)
Complexity (Ranked 8th in World) @ Wisla Krakow (Ranked 76th in World)
Betting Odds: Complexity -900/Wisla Krakow +510
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +190/Under -265
*This is a best of three match in the lower-bracket round 1 for the IEM Katowice 2021 Play-In Event.
*Complexity For Event: blameF 1.14 Rating, RUSH 0.76, jks 0.75, poizon 0.68, k0nfig 0.66.
*Complexity For the Last Three Months of Play: k0nfig 1.12 Rating, blameF 1.12, jks 0.96, poizon 0.96, RUSH 0.93.
*Wisla Krakow For Event: jedqr 1.24 Rating, ponczek 1.10, hades 0.86, Goody 0.83, SZPERO 0.72.
*Wisla Krakow For the Last Three Months of Play: hades 1.16 Rating, Goofy, jedqr 1.08, ponzczek 0.98, SZPERO 0.91.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches with Wisla Krakow coming from the lower-tier of CS.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Inferno for Complexity and Vertigo for Wisla Krakow. I believe the two maps we see for this match Mirage for Complexity and Train for Wisla Krakow.
*Complexity on Mirage (13 Maps): k0nfig 1.27 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 88.4 ADR. blameF 1.06, RUSH 0.96, poizon 0.96, jks 0.86. On Train (3 Maps): k0nfig 0.96 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 0.87 IMP, 81.8 ADR. RUSH 0.95, jks 0.87, blameF 0.82, poizon 0.50.
Analysis: I truly think we see each team win their map pick here. We have seen Complexity on Train a couple times, and they looked very, very bad on it. They likely are preparing for this map seeing as how Wisla plays if over 40% of the time as their first map choice, and they likely know that Complexity isn’t great on it, also. We may not see Wisla win this match, but I do think they have a legit shot at pushing out a win on Train and taking this to three maps.
MIBR (Ranked 39th in World) @ fnatic (Ranked 12th in World)
Betting Odds: fnatic -255/MIBR +190
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +100/Under -135
*This is a best of three lower-bracket round 1 for the IEM Katowice 2021 Play-In Event.
*MIBR For Event: boltz 1.27 Rating, shz 1.05, chelo 1.04, yel 0.94, danoco 0.86.
*MIBR For the Last Three Months of Play: chelo 1.11 Rating, shz 1.09, boltz 1.09, yel 0.94, danoco 0.86.
*fnatic For Event: KRIMZ 0.93 Rating, Golden 0.90, JW 0.76, Jackinho 0.74, Brollan 0.67.
*fnatic For the Last Three Months of Play: Brollan 1.19 Rating, KRIMZ 1.16, JW 1.10, Jackinho 1.09, Golden 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*These first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for MIBR and Dust2 for fnatic. I think we see Inferno for fnatic and Vertigo for MIBR.
*fnatic on Inferno (6 Maps): Brollan 1.29 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 85.7 ADR. KRIMZ 1.17, Jackinho 1.08, JW 0.98, Golden 0.97. On Vertigo (5 Maps): Brollan 1.30 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 88.9 ADR. JW 1.08, KRIMZ 1.03, Golden 0.91, Jackinho 0.79.
*MIBR on Vertigo (6 Maps): shz 1.09 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 81.2 ADR. Boltz 1.05, chelo 1.03, yel 1.00, danoco 0.94. On Inferno (6 Maps): shz 1.09 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.01 IMP, 76.0 ADR. Boltz 1.06, chelo 1.04, yel 0.97, danoco 0.78.
Analysis: MIBR is a decent team in the top-tier competition scene at the moment. They aren’t a good team…yet. They still have quite a bit of work to do and training to get where they want to be, and I still think they are a little off that mark. Fnatic is a good top-tier team. I do think we see a fnatic win here and I think it could easily turn into a sweep. I think fnatic’s map pool and success-rates on most of the maps we could see in this match are going to allow them to get the win in this match.
Cloud9 (Ranked 20th in World) @ OG (Ranked 13th in World)
Betting Odds: OG -235/Cloud9 +175
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160
*This is a best of three lower-bracket quarter-final with the winner qualifying for the IEM Katowice 2021 Event.
*OG For Event: mantuu 1.34 Rating, valde 1.12, NBK 1.08, ISSAA 1.07, Aleksib 0.96.
*OG For the Last Three Months of Play: valde 1.21 Rating, mantuu 1.12, NBK 1.03, ISSAA 1.02, Aleksib 1.02.
*Cloud9 For Event: Xeppaa 1.07 Rating, es3tag 0.99, ALEX 0.98, mezii 0.93, floppy 0.91.
*Cloud9 For the Last Three Months of Play: floppy 1.04 Rating, es3tag 1.04, Xeppaa 1.03, ALEX 1.02, mezii 1.00.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played once back at Flashpoint 2 Event in November when Cloud9 had woxic instead of Xeppaa. OG swept this match with results of 22-18 on Nuke, and 16-10 on Mirage.
*Top Performers for Cloud9 (2 Maps): woxic was the top performer with +8 K-D Diff, next best was floppy -9 K-D Diff.
*Top Performers for OG (2 Maps): Aleksib +33 K-D Diff, 1.63 Rating, 110.7 ADR. Mantuu +13 K-D Diff, 1.21 Rating, 76.1 ADR. ISSAA +1 K-D Diff, 1.09 Rating, 71.2 ADR.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for Cloud9, and Vertigo for OG. I believe we see Nuke for Cloud9 and Inferno for OG.
*Cloud9 on Nuke (10 Maps): es3tag 1.19 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 86.5 ADR. Floppy 1.11, Xeppaa 1.10, mezii 1.03, ALEX 0.99. On Inferno (6 Maps): Xeppaa 1.06 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 73.6 ADR. Mezii 1.03, floppy 1.03, ALEX 0.92, es3tag 0.92.
*OG on Inferno (14 Maps): valde 1.20 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 80.3 ADR. NBK 1.13, mantuu 1.00, ISSAA 0.99, Aleksib 0.97. On Nuke (6 Maps): Aleksib 1.19 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 84.2 ADR. Valde 1.12, mantuu 1.10, ISSAA 1.04, NBK 0.91.
Analysis: I think that OG garners a TON of ownership on this slate after taking Liquid to a three-map affair yesterday to fall into this elimination match for a chance at a spot in the Katowice Event. Cloud9 has not played well lately, and this is what makes me semi-like them as the dog and leverage on this slate as I feel they could come in here easily and push OG for a win here. I think Cloud9 is sneaky, especially since we can expect OG to be somewhat chalky.
Virtus.Pro (Ranked 5th in World) @ Renegades (Unranked)
Map Odds: V.Pro -175/Renegades +430
Betting Odds: 2.5 Over +195/Under -270
*This is a best of three lower-bracket quarter-final match with the winner going to the IEM Katowice 2021 Event.
*V.Pro For Event: Jame 1.27 Rating, YEKINDAR 1.21, SANJI 1.02, buster 0.84, qikert 0.79.
*V.Pro For the Last Three Months of Play: Jame 1.16 Rating, YEKINDAR 1.11, buster 1.06, qikert 1.06, SANJI 0.96.
*Renegades For Event: INS 1.11 Rating, Sico 1.10, aliStair 1.03, Hatz 1.01, malta 1.01.
*Renegades For the Last Three Months of Play: INS 1.36 Rating, aliStair 1.17, Hatz 1.09, Sico 1.07, malta 1.00.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches with Renegades being typically in the lower-tier of CS.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for V.Pro and Train for Renegades. The first two maps to be chosen are likely Dust2 for V.Pro and Inferno for Renegades.
*V.Pro on Dust2 (9 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.24 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 87.3 ADR. Qikert 1.18, Jame 1.15, buster 1.02, SANJI 0.98. On Inferno (11 Maps): Jame 1.17 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 73.9 ADR. Buster 1.11, qikert 1.07, YEKINDAR 1.04, SANJI 0.95.
*Renegades on Inferno (7 Maps): INS 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.47 IMP, 88.1 ADR. Hatz 1.10, Sico 0.99, aliStair 0.94, malta 0.90. On Dust2 (6 Maps): INS 1.51 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.66 IMP, 102.7 ADR. Sico 1.21, Hatz 1.18, malta 1.18, aliStair 0.94.
Analysis: V.Pro is a DAMN good team and they got trashed yesterday 0-2 by NiP in their second match after the best of one against Wisla Krakow. They will be out for blood here, but let’s not forget that this Renegades team is one of the better lower-tier CS teams and they did take Mousesports to a 16-14 result in their best of one on Inferno before going on to beat TeamOne later on in a 2-1 result. This seems like one of those “too good to be true” spots for V.Pro and with that said, I am not “saying” Renegades will win this match, but I am saying that I wouldn’t be shocked if they did upset here, and I also wouldn’t be shocked if they got swept.
*TOP STACKS: fnatic, Complexity, Virtus.Pro
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Cloud9, Renegades
*TOP CPT PLAYS: KRIMZ, Brollan, blameF, k0nfig, poizon, Jame, YEKINDAR
*TOP VALUES: buster, Jackinho, jks, INS, es3tag, Xeppaa, boltz, jedqr, floppy, valde, mantuu