CS:GO DFS Playbook – IEM Katowice 2021 Play-In (5-Match)
*IMPORTANT NOTE – THESE ARE BEST OF ONE MATCHES!
Renegades (Unranked) @ Mousesports (Ranked 14th)
Betting Odds: Mousesports -585/Renegades +375
Map Odds: 25.5 Rounds -110 Over/Under -120
*This is a best of one play-in match for the upper-bracket round 1 of the IEM Katowice Event.
*Renegades won the DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Oceania Event on December 5th as an underdog to ORDER, who had a 1-map lead going into the Grand Final. Renegades won three straight maps of Inferno, Mirage, and Dust2, allowing 10 or less rounds won to boot for ORDER in the sweep. Mousesports were on a mini-win streak during CS_Summit 7 Event before losing in their most recent match played against Virtus.pro. They had beat FURIA, Heroic, and FaZe all by the 2-0 sweep before getting swept by V.pro in the semi-finals.
*Renegades Over the Last Three Months of Play (15 Maps): INS 1.42 Rating, Hatz 1.11, Sico 1.06, aliStair 1.06, malta 0.99.
*Mousesports Over the Last Month of Play (8 Maps): frozen 1.22 Rating, ropz 1.11, Bymas 0.99. acoR 0.95. (dexter is a new member for Mouse (Who formerly played for Renegades) after Karrigan went back to FaZe, and he has not play in the last month)
*Mousesports Over the Last Three Months of Play (36 Maps): dexter (15 Maps) 1.18 Rating, ropz 1.14, frozen 1.13, Bymas 1.08, acoR 0.95.
H2H Data:
*With Renegades in the lower-tier of competition mainly, these two teams have not met head-to-head anytime recently.
MAPS:
*The first ban maps for this match should likely include Overpass for Mousesports and Train for Renegades, and then after that it is likely a ban against the team’s best map – should be Inferno and Nuke. I think we see Dust2 or Mirage for this map pick. I am going with Dust2.
*Renegades on Dust2 (6 Maps): INS 1.51 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.66 IMP, 102.7 ADR. Sico 1.21, Hatz 1.18, malta 1.18, AliStair 0.94.
*Mouse on Dust2 (4 Maps): dexter (6 Maps) 1.28 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 85.3 ADR. Frozen 1.13, ropz 1.12, Bymas 0.97, acoR 0.63.
Analysis: Obviously on paper, this should be a slam-dunk for Mouse, right? I mean they did bring on dexter, who was one of Renegades better players, and now they face dexter’s former team the day after he is introduced for Mouse as their new play in the Katowice play-in game. Think Renegades likely make this match pretty interesting, as they are a better lower-tier team, and brought on Alistair who is actually a pretty good player, as well. I don’t think Renegades likely win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did either since they did just lose their IGL in Karrigan, meaning they will have to get used to a new IGL calling the shots.
Virtus.pro (Ranked 5th in World) @ Wisla Krakow (Ranked 76th in World)
Betting Odds: V.pro -1250/Wisla Krakow +620
Map Odds: 25.5 Rounds Over +115/Under -155
*This is a best of one upper-bracket round 1 match for the IEM Katowice Event.
*V.Pro has won 9 of their last 10 matches played, with their most recent match being their lone loss for that span against Gambit in a 1-2 result. Wisla are fresh off a win over GamerLegion in a 2-1 result but had been swept in three-straight matches before getting that win. They were swept against Winstrike, Tricked, and Dignitas.
*V.Pro Over the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): Jame 1.29 Rating, YEKINDAR 1.24, buster 1.12, qikert 1.11, SANJI 1.04.
*V.Pro Over the Last Three Months of Play (50 Maps): Jame 1.15 Rating, YEKINDAR 1.10, qikert 1.08, buster 1.07, SANJI 0.96.
*Wisla Krakow Over the Last Month of Play (7 Maps): Jedqr 1.16, Goofy 1.11, hades 1.10, ponczek 0.90, SZPERO 0.79.
*Wisla Krakow Over the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): hades 1.17 Rating, jedqr 1.09, Goofy 1.06, ponczek 0.98, SZPERO 0.92.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played one match at the LOOT.BET Event back in November of 2020 with V.pro winning 2-0 with results of 16-14 on Dust2 and 16-7 on Mirage.
*Top Players For V.Pro (2 Maps): Jame +22 K-D Diff, 1.40 Rating, 84.0 ADR. Buster +17 K-D Diff, 1.33 Rating, 83.8 ADR.
*There were no positive players for Wisla Krakow, but ponczek and jedqr bad the best at -3 K-D Diff a piece.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo and Nuke. I think the next bans include Dust2 and Inferno. I think there is a good chance we see Mirage or Train for this match. I am going go guess it is Mirage.
*V.Pro on Mirage (11 Maps): Jame 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 77.4 ADR. YEKINDAR 1.02, buster 0.99, qikert 0.98, SANJI 0.93.
*Wisla Krakow on Mirage (8 Maps): jedqr 1.15 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 82.2 ADR. Hades 1.11, SZPERO 0.98, ponczek 0.91, Goofy 0.89.
Analysis: Virtus.Pro should mop up this match, as they are the clear better team and Vegas has made them this big of a favorite for a reason. V.Pro WILL be the chalk also for this slate likely, as well.
NiP (Ranked 15th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 8th in World)
Betting Odds: Complexity -165/NiP +125
Map Odds: 25.5 Rounds Over -185/Under +140
*This is a best of one match for the upper-bracket round 1 for the IEM Katowice Event.
*Complexity is running with a 3-match win streak where they defeated Vitality, G2, AND Evil Geniuses over that span. NiP is fresh off a loss to BIG 0-2, but had swept BIG the prior match, and Astralis the match prior to that.
*NiP Over the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): Plopski 1.03 Rating, hampus 1.02, REZ 1.00, Nawwk 0.94, ztr 0.85.
*NIP Over the Last Three Months of Play (25 Maps): REZ 1.07 Rating, hampus 1.03, Plopski 1.03, Nawwk 0.97, ztr 0.85.
*Complexity Over the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): blameF 1.09 Rating, k0nfig 1.09, poizon 1.02, RUSH 1.01, jks 0.96.
*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play (38 Maps): k0nfig 1.14 Rating, blameF 1.12, poizon 0.97, jks 0.96, RUSH 0.94.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played two matches recently with both teams winning a match a piece. Complexity swept NiP in the most recent meeting at the ESL Pro League Season 12 Euro with a result of 16-13 on Nuke and 16-7 on Train. The NiP win was a 2-1 result where they won Train 16-12 and Vertigo 16-11, while Complexity won Mirage 16-14.
*Complexity vs NiP (5 Maps): blameF +25 K-D Diff, 1.35 K-D, 1.20 Rating. k0nfig +9 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.08 Rating. Poizon +6 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.01 Rating.
*NiP vs Complexity (5 Maps): REZ +7 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.03 Rating.
MAPS:
*The bans for this match should include Dust2, Inferno, Vertigo, and Nuke. I think we likely see Train for this match.
*Complexity on Train (3 Maps): k0nfig 0.96 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 0.87 IMP, 81.8 ADR. RUSH 0.95, jks 0.87, blameF 0.82, poizon 0.50.
*NiP on Train (3 Maps): REZ 1.26 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 86.7 ADR. Hampus 1.15, nawwk 1.05, Plopski 1.01.
Analysis: I truly feel that Complexity ends up being chalky as can be and I think that NiP can legit win this map. It is always a toss-up trying to predict best of one maps, and Train may not be the map, but I feel that NiP has quite a wide map pool, just as much as complexity if not better, and are just as good of a team.
OG (Ranked 13th in World) @ fnatic (Ranked 12th in World)
Betting Odds: fnatic -125/OG -105
Map Odds: 25.5 Rounds Over -255/Under +185
*This is a best of one upper-bracket match for the IEM Katowice Event.
*Both of these teams have been off for at least a week, OG had lost two in a row to Astralis and BIG, while fantic had a four-match win streak snapped last time out by V.Pro.
*OG Over the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): valde 1.16 Rating, mantuu 1.09, ISSAA 1.06, Aleksib 1.04, NBK 0.96.
*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play (43 Maps): valde 1.22 Rating, mantuu 1.10, NBK 1.02, Aleksib 1.02, ISSAA 1.01.
*fnatic Over the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): KRIMZ 1.21 Rating, Brollan 1.15, Jackinho 1.02, Golden 0.95, JW 0.92.
*fnatic Over the Last Three Months of Play (29 Maps): Brollan 1.21 Rating, KRIMZ 1.16, JW 1.11, Jackinho 1.02, Golden 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played just a few weeks ago in the CS_Summit 7 Event with fnatic winning 2-1.
*Top Performers for fnatic (3 Maps): KRIMZ +4 K-D Diff, 1.12 Rating. 83.8 ADR.
*Top Performers for OG (3 Maps): ISSAA +19 K-D Diff, 1.27 Rating, 91.4 ADR. Valde +11 K-D Diff, 1.23 Rating, 82.6 ADR.
MAPS:
*The ban maps for this match should be Nuke, Vertigo, Dust2, and Train. I think we see Mirage for this map.
*OG on Mirage (6 Maps): valde. 1.34 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 85.8 ADR. Mantuu 1.25, NBK 1.06, Aleksib 1.00, ISSAA 1.00.
*fnatic on Mirage (5 Maps): Brollan 1.29 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.47 IMP, 92.9 ADR. JW 1.26, KRIMZ 1.14, Jackinho 0.94, Golden 0.93.
Analysis: On paper, this should be the closest map we see here on this slate. Both of these teams are so equally talented that I could easily see this map go to OT or be down to the wire. I think OG wins the map however.
Liquid (Ranked 7th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 39th in World)
Betting Odds: Liquid -270/MIBR +195
Map Odds: 25.5 Over -155/Under +115
*This is a best of one upper-bracket match for the IEM Katowice Event.
*Liquid is off an 0-2 loss to FaZe but had swept this MIBR 2-0 the match prior. They have lost three of their last five matches. MIBR have lost four in a row and four of their last five, but ran three of their four to three-maps in NaVi, Cloud9, and Heroic before losing 0-2 to Liquid in their most recent match.
*Liquid Over the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): NAF 1.13 Rating, EliGE 1.11, Grim 1.00, FalleN 0.96, Stewie2K 0.93.
*Liquid Over the Last Three Months of Play (40 Maps): EliGE 1.10 Rating, NAF 1.10, Grim 1.04, FalleN 0.96, Stewie2K 0.93.
*MIBR Over the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): chelo 1.03 Rating, shz 1.01, boltz 0.96, yel 0.96, danoco 0.87.
*MIBR Over the Last Three Month of Play (24 Maps): chelo 1.11 Rating, shz 1.09, boltz 1.08, yel 1.07, danoco 0.87.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played back at the BLAST Premier Spring Groups Event just a couple days ago with Liquid winning 2-0 with results of Inferno 16-9 and Vertigo 16-6. One could say this is a revenge spot for MIBR.
*Top Performers for Liquid (2 Maps): EliGE +20 K-D Diff, 1.62 Rating, 103.7 ADR. NAF +15 K-D Diff, 1.25 Rating, Stewie2K +7 K-D Diff, 1.30 Rating, 73.9 ADR. Grim +3 K-D Diff, 1.20 Rating, 79.3 ADR.
*No MIBR had positive stat-line for this match.
MAPS:
*The ban maps for this match should include Nuke, Train, Overpass, and Mirage. I think we see Dust2 for this match.
*MIBR on Mirage (5 Maps): chelo 1.28 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 90.3 ADR. Yel 1.23, boltz 1.05, shz 0.97, danoco 0.77.
*Liquid on Mirage (3 Maps): Grim 1.03 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 78.5 ADR. EliGE 1.03, Stewie2K 1.03, NAF 1.00.
Analysis: I think that this is a major revenge spot for MIBR who looked absolutely dreadful against Liquid in their most recent meeting. I think that the map could easily work out in either team’s favor, and I think that MIBR is a decent team as a value on this slate with it being a best of one format for play-ins.
*TOP STACKS: Virtus.pro, Mousesports, OG, Liquid
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: NiP, MIBR, fnatic
*TOP CAPT PLAYS: Jame, valde, EliGE, KRIMZ, mantuu, NAF, nawwk
*TOP VALUE PLAYS: YEKINDAR, buster, REZ, Plopski, boltz, ropz, frozen, valde, ISSAA, Grim