CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2.13.2021 (2-Match)

NaVi (Ranked 2nd in World) @ FaZe (Ranked 19th in World)

Betting Odds: NaVi -245/FaZe +180

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is a best of three Group C upper-bracket final – Winner clinches spot in BLAST Spring Final.

*NaVi For Event: s1mple 1.42 Rating, electronic 1.12, flamie 1.11, Perfecto 1.00, Boombl4 0.96.

*NaVi Over the Last Three Months: s1mple 1.37 Rating, electronic 1.13, Perfecto 1.03, flamie 0.97, boombl4 0.96.

*FaZe For Event: broky 1.49 Rating, rain 1.42, olof 1.36, coldzera 1.33, Twistzz 1.27.

*FaZe Over the Last Three Months: broky 1.05 Rating, rain 1.00, coldzera 1.00, Twistzz 1.00, olof 0.91.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played four times recently with FaZe sweeping the most recent match 2-0 at the DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 Event, and that was the only match out of the four played that they won. The three prior matches ALL went three maps, also.

*NaVi vs FaZe (14 Maps): s1mple +66 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.20 Rating. Electronic +11 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.09 Rating.

*FaZe vs NaVI (14 Maps): broky +19 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.05 Rating. Coldzera +2 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.01 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo and Overpass. I think the two maps we see for this match are Dust2 for FaZe and I think we see NaVi go back to Train, even though they got beat on it yesterday.

*FaZe on Dust2 (6 Map): broky 1.20 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 81.3 ADR coldzera 1.07, rain 1.04, Twistzz 0.94, olof 0.85. On Train (2 Maps): rain 1.14 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 87.4 ADR. Olof 1.00, coldzera 0.92, broky 0.82.

*NaVi on Train (5 Maps): s1mple 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 80.3 ADR. Boombl4 1.00, electronic 0.97, flamie 0.83, Perfecto 0.83. On Dust2 (6 Maps): s1mple 1.46 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 1.62 IMP, 97.1 ADR. Electronic 1.13, Perfect 0.99. Boombl4 0.96, flamie 0.93.

Analysis: Books listing NaVi as just 2.5-to-1 favs in this match makes me think they are just favoring the higher ranked team. Let’s be honest, FaZe looked AMAZING yesterday. They were tactically sound on both CT and T side, their utility use was next to none and they totally choked out Liquid, a very good team through and through. Olof was playing like his multi-championship prime run. If NaVi allows FaZe to get into this game early, we could easily see this be another three-map affair. I think FaZe is the leverage to have on this slate with everyone likely going to plug s1mple and NaVi once again here.

 

 

MIBR (Ranked 37th in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 5th in World)

Betting Odds: Liquid -195/MIBR +150

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -130

*This is a best of three Group C lower bracket final. Loser heads to the showdown. Winner plays the loser of match above for last shot at playoffs.

*MIBR For Event: yel 1.10 Rating, chelo 1.08, danoco 1.00, shz 0.89, boltz 0.76.

*MIBR Over the Last Three Months: chelo 1.14 Rating, boltz 1.14, shz 1.12, yel 1.10, danoco 0.97.

*Liquid For Event: Grim 0.83 Rating, NAF 0.82, Stewie2K 0.80, EliGE 0.76, FalleN 0.45.

*Liquid Over the Last Three Months: NAF 1.11 Rating, EliGE 1.07, Grim 1.04, Stewie2k and FalleN 0.93.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any H2H matches recently

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for MIBR and Train for Liquid. I believe we see Mirage once again for MIBR and I think we see Inferno for Liquid.

*MIBR on Mirage (6 Maps): chelo 1.28 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 89.2 ADR. Yel 1.21, boltz 1.11, shz 0.97, danoco 0.77. On Inferno (5 Maps): boltz 1.13 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 80.9 ADR. Chelo 1.09, shz 1.09, yel 0.99, danoco 0.74.

*Liquid on Inferno (11 Maps): EliGE 1.12 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 75.9 ADR. NAF 1.05, Stewie2K 0.96, FalleN 0.94, Grim 0.92. On Mirage (3 Maps): Grim 1.06 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 78.5 ADR. EliGE 1.03, Stewie2K 1.03, NAF 1.00.

Analysis: NaVi dicked around yesterday and almost allowed this MIBR team to stick around too long, but I don’t see Liquid doing that today. Liquid were embarrassed yesterday. This team is too good to not bounce-back here. Looking for huge games from EliGE and NAF here, along with better game from FalleN, as well. Going right back to the well here on Liquid, as I feel they right the ship today in a big way.

 

*TOP STACKS: Liquid, FaZe

*TOP CPT PLAYS: EliGe, broky, NAF s1mple, Grim, electronic, coldzera

*TOP VALUES: Rain, FalleN, yel, Twistzz, flamie, olof, stewie