CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2021 (2-Match)

Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -360/Complexity +250

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160

*This is a best of three Group B upper-bracket semi-final match for the BLAST Premier Spring Groups Event.

*Vitality Over the Last Month of Play (10 Maps): ZywOo 1.36 Rating, Shox 1.10, RpK 0.97, apEX 0.93, misutaaa 0.88, Nivera 0.86.

*Vitality Over the Last Three Months of Play (42 Maps): ZywOo 1.33 Rating, shox 1.13, Nivera 1.09, RpK 1.06, misutaaa 1.05, apEX 1.02.

*Complexity Over the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): RUSH 1.05 Rating, blameF 0.95, k0nfig 0.93, jks 0.79.

*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): k0nfig 1.12 Rating, blameF 1.10, poizon 0.96 (He has returned to the team, as well), RUSH 0.95, jks 0.94.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played just once in 2021 with Vitality sweeping with scores of 16-8 on Dust2 and 16-9 on Mirage. They also played four other times back in 2020, with Vitality winning all four matches there as well, with three via 2-0 sweep and one 2-1 result.

*Vitality vs Complexity (21 Maps): ZywOo +129 K-D Diff, 1.39 K-D, 1.31 Rating. Shox +25 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.07 Rating. Nivera (7 Maps) +17 K-D Diff, 1.13 K-D, 1.14 Rating.

*Complexity vs Vitality (21 Maps): k0nfig +10 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Inferno for Complexity, and Train for Vitality. I believe we see Mirage for Complexity and Dust2 for Vitality.

*Vitality on Dust2 (10 Maps): ZywOo 1.49 Rating, 0.96 KPR, 1.59 IMP, 96.5 ADR. Nivera 1.17, Shox 1.02, apEX 1.02, RpK 0.89. On Mirage (4 Maps): RpK 1.41 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 99.0 ADR. ZywOo 1.29, apEX 1.10, Nivera 1.01, shox 0.95, misutaaa 0.95.

*Complexity on Mirage (12 Maps): k0nfig 1.23 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 87.1 ADR. blameF 1.12, poizon 1.05, RUSH 0.92, jks 0.86. On Dust2 (5 Maps): poizon (2 Maps) 1.27 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 88.0 ADR. K0nfig 1.04, blameF 0.95, jk 0.90, RUSH 0.88.

Analysis: Everything once again points to a 2-0 here for Vitality as they have done if four of the last five meetings with Complexity. Vitality is just a much better team, and I still think Complexity, even though getting poizon back in their core is a major plus, just not strong enough to beat a team like Vitality.

 

Evil Geniuses (Ranked 15th in World) @ G2 (Ranked 8th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -210/EG +155

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three for Group B upper-bracket semi-finals match in the BLAST Premier Spring Groups Event.

*EG Over the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): Ethan 1.00 Rating, CeRq 0.97, Brehze 0.96, Stanislaw 0.87, Tarik 0.87.

*EG Over the Last Three Months of Play (22 Maps): Ethan 1.07 Rating, Tarik 1.04, Brehze 1.04, CeRq 0.99, Stanislaw 0.96.

*G2 Over the Last Month of Play (8 Maps): NiKo 1.16 Rating, kennyS 1.01, nexa 0.97, huNter 0.87, AmaNEk 0.85.

*G2 Over the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): NiKo 1.14 Rating, kennyS 1.06, huNter 0.98, nexa 0.96, AmaNEk 0.87.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent H2H matches in the past 12 months.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps we should see for this match include Mirage for EG and Overpass for G2. Evil Geniuses have found a 60% liking to Inferno as their first map choice lately, while G2 will likely stick to Dust2.

*EG on Inferno (7 Maps): Tarik 1.11 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 76.6 ADR. Ethan 1.11, CeRq 1.10, Brehze 1.03, Stanislaw 0.95. On Dust2 (3 Maps): Ethan 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 75.3 ADR. Stanislaw 1.02, Tarik 0.87, Brehze 0.82, CeRq 0.82.

*G2 on Dust2 (9 Maps): NiKo 1.25 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 90.1 ADR. KennyS 1.11, nexa 1.00, huNter 0.98, AmaNEk 0.87. On Inferno (8 Maps): NiKo 1.11 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 86.0 ADR. kennyS 1.09, nexa 0.92, AmaNEk 0.86, huNter 0.84.

Analysis: Where most will totally over-look EG here, and rightfully so, as they have not played well in their recent major Events, I think there is some value on them here today. I think they are the leverage on this slate and I could easily see them winning Inferno and taking this to a third map, which I could see being Nuke and this give them a shot at winning. I think EG surprises a bit here, and the odds are not exactly fully in G2 favor at the books, either.

 

*TOP STACKS: Vitality, EG

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: EG

*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, NiKo, Ethan, Brehze, RpK

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: shox, apEX, Brehze, Tarik, kennyS, k0nfig