CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premiere Spring Groups 2021 (2-Match)

NiP (Ranked 18th in World) @ BIG (Ranked 4th in World)

Betting Odds: BIG -220/NiP +165

Map Odds: 2.5 Over 100/Under -130

*This is a best of three Group A upper-bracket final match for the BLAST Premiere Spring Groups 2021 Event.

*NiP For Event: nawwk 1.20 Rating, hampus 1.12, ztr 1.06, REZ 0.97, Plopski 0.76.

*BIG For Event: syrsoN 1.35 Rating, XANTARES 1.12, k1to 1.12, tabseN 1.03, tiziaN 0.82.

*NiP Over the Last Three Months of Play: REZ 1.08 Rating, hampus 1.08, nawwk 1.01, ztr 1.01, Plopski 0.98.

*BIG Over the Last Three Months of Play: syrsoN 1.16 Rating, XANTARES 1.10, tabseN 1.04, tiziaN 1.00, k1to 0.96.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played three times in 2020 with NiP winning two of the three, however BIG won the most prior meeting back at IEM Beijing-Haidian 2020 Euro Event. The last two matches played went the full three-map distance as well.

*NiP vs BIG (7 Maps): nawwk +27 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.06 Rating. REZ +12 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.08 Rating. Plopski +6 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.07 Rating. hampus 0+ K-D Diff, 1.00 K-D, 1.12 Rating.

*BIG vs NiP (7 Maps): syrsoN +20 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.10 Rating. tabseN +9 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.09 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for NiP and Train for BIG. I think we see BIG go with Nuke and NiP go with Overpass.

*BIG on Nuke (13 Maps): tabseN 1.13 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 83.1 ADR. XANTARES 1.13, syrsoN 1.09, tiziaN 0.95, k1to 0.88. On Overpass (3 Maps): tabseN 1.24 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 90.0 ADR. XANTARES 1.15, k1to 1.08, syrsoN 1.05, tiziaN 0.90.

*NiP on Overpass (4 Maps): REZ 1.19 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 87.3 ADR. Ztr 1.10, Plopski 0.99, hampus 0.97. nawwk 0.85. NiP on Nuke (2 Maps): nawwk 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 76.6 ADR. Hampus 1.18, REZ 1.12, ztr 1.08, Plopski 0.91.

Analysis: It seems to me that the books are looking for the let-down spot here for NiP after a huge 2-0 sweep of Astralis with their newly added piece in ztr, who looked amazing by the way in that match. I feel like with BIG having their best map in D2 banned, Nuke will have to be a must-win for them. I loved what I saw from NiP yesterday on Overpass, and I could easily see this being a three-map affair, as it has been in their last two matches played H2H. I honestly think both teams can win their map choice, and I think as a decider we may be looking at Mirage, which I feel NiP has a legit shot at winning as well. I like the dog here, but if you follow my work, that’s usually the case.

 

 

Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) @ OG (Ranked 9th in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -415/OG +285

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -170

*This is a best of three Group A lower-bracket round 1 match in the BLAST Premiere Spring Groups 2021 Event.

*Astralis For Event: dupreeh 1.20 Rating, device 1.17, Xyp9x 1.07, Magisk 0.90, gla1ve 0.87.

*OG For Event: valde 1.19 Rating, Aleksib 1.05, mantuu 0.90, NBK 0.87, ISSAA 0.85.

*Astralis Over the Last Three Months of Play: device 1.23 Rating, dupreeh 1.12, Magisk 1.06, Xyp9x 1.04, gla1ve 1.00.

*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play: valde 1.19 Rating, mantuu 1.11, Aleksib 1.04, ISSAA 1.03, NBK 0.99

H2H Data:

*These two teams have just once recently at the ESL Pro League Season 11 Euro Event. Astralis swept the match with a win of 16-10 on Overpass and 16-8 on Dust2.

*Top Performers for Astralis: Magisk +15 K-D Diff, 1.45 Rating, 89.0 ADR. Xyp9x +12 K-D Diff, 1.25 Rating, 72.3 ADR. Device +11 K-D Diff, 1.25 Rating, 79.4 ADR. Dupreeh +10 K-D Diff, 1.26 Rating, 80.3 ADR.

*Top Performers for OG: mantuu came closest to a positive stat-line at -1 K-D Diff, 1.13 Rating, 77.0 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for OG and Mirage for Astralis. Astralis will likely continue to go with Nuke, while OG will likely go with Inferno.

*Astralis on Nuke (10 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 85.0 ADR. Magisk 0.99, gla1ve 0.95, dupreeh 0.93, Xyp9x 0.87. On Inferno (19 Maps): device 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 86.5 ADR. Dupreeh 1.11, Magisk 1.06, Xyp9x 1.01, gla1ve 0.96.

*OG on Inferno (15 Maps): valde 1.18 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 79.0 ADR. NBK 1.10, ISSAA 1.01, mantuu 1.00, Aleksib 0.99. On Nuke (6 Maps): Aleksib 1.27 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 87.5 ADR. Valde 1.15, mantuu 1.10, ISSAA 1.06, NBK 0.91

Analysis: Obviously this is a major bounce-back spot for both teams in this match after both being dealt 2-0 sweep losses yesterday. I think Astralis will look to get back on top here however, and the maps benefit them much more than they do OG. I like Astralis to get the win here and could likely be 2-0.

 

*TOP STACKS: Astralis, NiP

*TOP CPT PLAYS: device, nawwk, dupreeh, valde, ztr, hampus

*TOP FLEX: syrsoN, Magisk, tabseN, Xyp9x, mantuu, REZ, XANTARES