CS:GO DFS Playbook – CS_Summit 7 1.28.2021 (3-Match)

OG (Ranked 7th in World) @ Dignitas (Ranked 29th in World)

Betting Odds: OG -330/DIG +235

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -155

*This is a best of three Group A decider match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*OG For the Event: valde 1.21 Rating, ISSAA 1.07, NBK 1.02, mantuu 0.99, Aleksib 0.85.

*Dignitas For the Event: HEAP 1.24 Rating, f0rest 1.17, hallzerk 1.07, H4RR3 1.04, friberg 1.02.

*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play: valde 1.17 Rating, mantuu 1.12, NBK 1.02, Aleksib 1.02, ISSAA 1.01.

*Dignitas Over the Last Three Months of Play: hallzerk 1.08 Rating, HEAP 1.04, f0rest 1.03, H4RR3 0.97, friber 0.86.

H2H Data:

*These two teams actually opened this tournament against each other where OG sent Dignitas to the elimination match with a 2-1 result with OG winning Dust2 16-14, and Inferno 16-14, while Dignitas won Train by a score of 16-3.

*Dignitas vs OG (5 Maps): f0rest +2 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.04 Rating.

*OG vs Dignitas (5 Maps): valde +29 K-D Diff, 1.37 K-D, 1.28 Rating. Mantuu +11 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.14 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should be Mirage for Dignitas and Vertigo for OG. OG continues to roll with Inferno 41% of the time lately, while DIG has gone with Train in back-to-back matches for this Event.

*OG on Inferno (12 Maps): valde 1.26 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 82.9 ADR. NBK 1.12, ISSAA 1.02, mantuu 1.02, Aleksib 0.97. On Train (6 Maps): ISSAA 0.99 Rating, 0.63 KPR, 0.97 IMP, 71.6 ADR. Valde 0.95, mantuu 0.94, Aleksib 0.92, NBK 0.83.

*DIG on Train (5 Maps): hallzerk 1.14 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 69.2 ADR. F0rest 1.12, H4RR3 1.07, HEAP 1.06, friberg 0.98. On Inferno (7 Maps): hallzerk 0.97 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 1.02 IMP, 68.1 ADR. HEAP 0.96, friberg 0.92, H4RR3 0.85, f0rest 0.83.

Analysis: I really think this match will come down to a 3rd map and I think we likely could see either Dust2 or Nuke. Dust2 favors OG a bit more, but Nuke is a middling-map for both. I think this match is a three-mapper and I think OG wins it in a close one.

 

Heroic (Ranked 6th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 43rd in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -385/MIBR +265

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +125/Under -165

*This is a best of three Group B decider match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*Heroic For the Event: TeSeS 1.32 Rating, niko 0.99, stavn 0.99, b0RUP 0.97, cadiaN 0.95.

*MIBR For the Event: chelo 1.06 Rating, shz 1.04, boltz 1.01, yel 0.99, danoco 0.90

*Heroic Over the Last Three Months of Play: TeSeS 1.12 Rating, stavn 1.11, cadiaN 1.07, niko 1.02, b0RUP 0.93.

*MIBR Over the Last Three Months of Play: boltz 1.23 Rating, chelo 1.20, shz 1.19, yel 1.19, danoco 1.02.

H2H Data:

*These two teams also faced off in the first round of this Event and Heroic just barely pulled out a 2-0 sweep with a winning result on Vertigo of 16-9 and on Overpass at 16-14.

*Top Performers for Heroic: TeSeS +25 K-D Diff, 1.60 Rating, 113.7 ADR. Stavn +4 K-D Diff, 1.11 Rating, 82.1 ADR.

*Top Performers for MIBR: shz +9 K-D Diff, 1.20 Rating, 88.7 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for MIBR and Dust2 for Heroic. I believe we see Heroic like roll with Vertigo once again, and I think we could see MIBR go with Mirage here as they are on a four-map win streak there.

*Heroic on Vertigo (6 Maps): TeSeS 1.44 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.71 IMP, 97.6 ADR. Stavn 1.15, niko 1.11, cadiaN 0.99, b0RUP 0.92. On Mirage (5 Maps): stavn 1.19 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 85.4 ADR. TeSeS 1.13, niko 1.06, cadiaN 0.98, b0RUP 0.92.

*MIBR on Mirage (4 Maps): yel 1.39 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 88.3 ADR. Boltz 1.34, chelo 1.34, shz 1.12, danoco 0.74. On Vertigo (3 Maps): yel 1.28 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 78.4 ADR. Shz 1.20, boltz 1.09, chelo 1.01, danoco 0.92.

Analysis: This is quite the revenge spot for MIBR who just gave FaZe the business yesterday in the elimination match. I think that if Heroic plays as passively and non-motivated as they did in the first match between these two, MIBR has a very good chance of winning this match. I continue to be very impressed by this new MIBR squad and I do think they are going to be very good, very soon. I think that Mirage is likely MIBR’s map to lose and I don’t think that Vertigo is much of an edge for Heroic here, either, as MIBR played it pretty badly in their first meet. I like MIBR here again as the dog value.

 

FURIA (Ranked 9th in World) @ Cloud9 (Ranked 19th in World)

Betting Odds: FURIA -140/Cloud9 +110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three Group C decider match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*FURIA For the Event: yuurih 1.09 Rating, KSCERATO 1.09, arT 1.04, VINI 0.97, honda 0.85.

*Cloud9 For the Event: floppy 1.08 Rating, mezii 1.08, es3tag 1.04, ALEX 1.01, Xeppaa 0.99.

*FURIA Over the Last Three Months of Play: yuurih 1.14 Rating, KSCERATO 1.11, arT 0.97, VINI 0.97, honda 0.88.

*Cloud9 Over the Last Three Months of Play: Xeppaa 1.10 Rating, es3tag 1.03, floppy 1.02, ALEX 0.99, mezii 0.98.

H2H Data:

*These two teams faced-off in the opener of this event with FURIA pulling out a 2-1 win with a winning result of 16-11 on Train and 16-14 on Inferno. C9 won Nuke 16-6.

*Top Performers for FURIA (3 Maps): yuurih +12 K-D Diff, 1.17 Rating, 78.5 ADR. KSCERATO +4 K-D Diff, 1.09 Rating, 85.5 ADR.

*Top Performers for Cloud9 (3 Maps): Xeppaa +3 K-D Diff, 1.13 Rating, 84.2 ADR. ALEX +3 K-D Diff, 1.03 Rating, 72.0 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Mirage for Cloud9. Nuke is likely going to be the pick for C9 as they rolled FURIA on it in their opening meeting of this Event and FURIA likely sticks with Inferno.

*FURIA on Inferno (15 Maps): yuurih 1.19 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 79.2 ADR. VINI 1.13, KSCERATO 1.11, arT 1.01, honda 0.85. On Nuke (13 Maps): KSCERATO 1.08 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 77.2 ADR. arT 0.99, yuurih 0.99, VINI 0.85, honda 0.70.

*Cloud9 on Nuke (9 Maps): es3tag 1.17 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 89.0 ADR. Floppy 1.12, Xeppaa 1.08, mezii 1.02, ALEX 0.92. On Inferno (6 Maps): es3tag 0.99 Rating, 0.59 KPR, 0.95 IMP, 77.4 ADR. Xeppaa 0.99, mezii 0.98, ALEX 0.95, floppy 0.94.

Analysis: This is a revenge spot for Cloud9 to avenge their opening loss. Cloud9 looked pretty good against NiP in a three-map affair, but I am just not sure they are at the level of FURIA just yet. I think this is a very close match however, and I think that FURIA wins it once again 2-1.

 

*TOP STACKS: OG, FURIA

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: MIBR, Cloud9

*TOP CPT PLAYS: valde, ISSAA, yuurih, KSCERATO, TeSeS, es3tag, boltz, shz

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: mantuu, NBK, arT, mezii, floppy, yel, stavn, chelo