CS:GO DFS Playbook – CS_Summit 7 1.27.2021 (3-Match)

Complexity (Ranked 12th in World) @ Dignitas (Ranked 29th in World)

Betting Odds: Complexity -250/Dignitas +185

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160

*This is a best of three Group A elimination match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*Complexity For Event: RUSH 1.20 Rating, k0nfig 0.95, JUGi 0.92, blameF 0.84, jks 0.80

*Dignitas For Even: HEAP 1.17 Rating, f0rest 1.15, hallzerk 1.15, friberg 0.89

*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play: blameF 1.14 Rating, k0nfig 1.10, jks 0.97, JUGi 0.97, RUSH 0.96.

*Dignitas Over the Last Three Months of Play: hallzerk 1.08 Rating, HEAP 1.03, f0rest 1.03, H4RR3 0.97, friberg 0.89.

H2H Data:

*These two squads played one match recently back at the ESL One: Road to Rio – Euro Event. Complexity did have their original squad for this match and did sweep this match after a 28-24 Double-OT win on Train and a 16-11 result on Dust2. There are 4 news faces for each team, so I don’t think it is great practice to analyze this H2H, as these teams have changed quite a bit since.

Maps:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Inferno for Complexity and Mirage for Dignitas. I believe DIG likely saw how badly Complexity played Train in their most recent match and I would expect them to exploit with this map choice. I think with Mirage out for Complexity, I think we see Dust2 for their pick.

*Complexity on Dust2 (7 Maps): k0nfig 1.05 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 78.4 ADR. JUGi 1.04, blameF 1.00, jks 0.94, RUSH 0.83. On Train (2 Maps): RUSH 0.83 Rating, k0nfig 0.85, jks 0.79, blameF 0.76. (JUGI 1 map – 0.92 Rating)

*Dignitas on Train (4 Maps): hallzerk 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 71.2 ADR. H4RR3 1.20, f0rest 1.16, frigberg 0.99, HEAP 0.97. On Dust2 (8 Maps): HEAP 1.11 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 73.4 ADR. Hallzerk 1.08, f0rest 0.99, friberg 0.78, H4RR3 0.78.

Analysis: Honestly, there has nothing been warranted that makes me think that Complexity should be a 2.5-to-1 favorite over ANY team in CS right now with how they have been playing. If Complexity allow DIG to get Train, this will be a 2-0 sweep, or a three-map affair and I like to contrarian value on DIG here. They likely will be the leverage on this slate for GPPs, also.

 

FaZe (Ranked 15th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 43rd in World)

Betting Odds: FaZe -165/MIBR +125

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three Group B elimination match for the CS_Summit Event

*FaZe For Event: Kjaerbye 0.84 Rating, olofmeister 0.78, rain 0.77, broky 0.74, coldzera 0.73.

*MIBR For Event: shz 1.20 Rating, chelo 0.91, danoco 0.87, yel 0.82, boltz 0.81.

*FaZe Over the Last Three Months of Play: broky 1.08 Rating, coldzera 1.01, Kjaerbye 0.98, rain 0.96, olofmeister 0.81.

*MIBR Over the Last Three Months of Play: shz 1.28 Rating, boltz 1.27, yel 1.23, chelo 1.22, danoco 1.05.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have no prior head-to-head history, and it likely wouldn’t do us any good with MIBR being a brand-new roster.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for FaZe and Nuke for MIBR. MIBR went with Vertigo last match, but that will be banned here, so I think we see them go secondary with Dust2, as FaZe have not played well there lately on a six-match losing skid. I think we see FaZe continue to go with Mirage here, as well.

FaZe on Mirage (8 Maps): broky 1.09 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.02 IMP, 75.3 ADR. Coldzera 1.02, Kjaerbye 0.97, rain 0.84, olofmesiter 0.79. On Dust2 (6 Maps): coldzera 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.01 IMP, 83.2 ADR. Broky 1.02, rain 1.01, Kjaerbye 0.87, olof 0.73.

MIBR on Dust2 (2 Maps): yel 1.60 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.62 IMP, 98.7 ADR. Boltz 1.58, chelo 1.30, shz 1.25. On Mirage (3 Maps): yel 1.36 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 87.9 ADR. Bolz 1.29, chelo 1.29, shz 1.10.

Analysis: I was actually thoroughly impressed by the debut of this new MIBR squad in their opening match against Heroic. They ran Overpass to 16-14 and just let that one slip through their fingers and came up short on their map choice of Vertigo at 16-9. I understand the odds being in favor of FaZe as they got pretty obliterated last match by Mouse, so books likely thinking this is a bounce-back match here. Either way, it is an elimination match and I do expect FaZe to bring their best, but at the same time I just don’t really believe they are an overall good team. This MIBR team could upset and I wouldn’t be shocked one bit. They have talent, and now a match under their belts against a team that was number 1 in the World just a few months ago.

 

NiP (Ranked 18th in World) @ Cloud9 (Ranked 19th in World)

Betting Odds: NiP -115/Cloud9 -110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three Group C elimination match for the CS_Summit Event.

*NiP For Event: Plopski 0.90 Rating, REZ 0.68, nawwk 0.68, twist 0.51, hampus 0.44.

*Cloud9 For Event: Xeppaa 1.13 Rating, mezii 1.07, es3tag 1.05, ALEX 1.03, floppy 1.02.

*NiP Over the Last Three Months of Play: REZ 1.09 Rating, hampus 1.02, nawwk 1.00, Plopski 0.97, twist 0.87.

*Cloud9 Over the Last Three Months of Play: Xeppaa 1.12 Rating, es3tag 1.04, floppy 1.00, ALEX 0.99, mezii 0.97.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played a solo match at the BLAST Premiere Fall Showdown 2020 Event and Cloud9 won a close 2-0 sweep with a result of 16-12 on Nuke and 16-14 on Vertigo.

*Top Performers for NiP: hampus +2 K-D Diff, 1.19 Rating, 93.1 ADR. Nawwk +2 K-D Diff, 1.01 Rating, 66.7 ADR. REZ +1 K-D Diff, 1.08 Rating, 72.5 ADR.

*Top Performers for Cloud9: floppy +18 K-D Diff, 1.43 IMP, 92.4 ADR. Es3tag +10 K-D Diff, 1.31 Rating, 103.2 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for NiP and Mirage for Cloud9. Cloud9 has been going with Nuke lately and did so yesterday against FURIA (in which they won 16-6), and NiP has been going with Mirage, which will be banned, so I think we see them likely go with Overpass here.

*Cloud9 on Nuke (9 Maps): es3tag 1.17 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 89.0 ADR. Floppy 1.12, Xeppaa 1.08, mezii 1.02, ALEX 0.92. On Overpass (2 Maps): Xeppaa 1.21 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 84.5 ADR. mezii 1.16 Rating, Es3tag 1.09, floppy 0.84, ALEX 0.81.

*NiP on Overpass (4 Maps): REZ 1.37 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.64 IMP, 89.3 ADR. Plopski 1.16, twist 0.96, nawwk 0.95, hampus 0.85. On Nuke (5 Maps): hampus 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 94.5 ADR. Nawwk 1.05, REZ 0.99, Plopski 0.88, twist 0.77.

Analysis: From what I have seen from C9, I clearly think they are the better team here. However, the odds being in the favor of NiP literally have me scratching my head. This seems like one of those “too good to be true” spots for Cloud9 and that’s usually when NiP will sweep after no one plays them, as no one will play them here. They are the leverage of the slate, easily.

 

*TOP STACKS: Dignitas, MIBR, NiP    

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: NiP, MIBR

*TOP CPT PLAYS: hallzerk, HEAP, yel, shz, boltz, REZ, hampus

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: broky, es3tag, Xeppaa, nawwk, Plopski, f0rest, JUGi, danoco