CS:GO DFS Playbook – CS_Summit 7 1.26.2021 (3-Match)

Fnatic (Ranked 16th in World) @ OG (Ranked 7th in World)

Betting Odds: OG -120/fnatic -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three Group A winner’s match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*Fnatic For the Event: KRIMZ 1.58 Rating, Brollan 1.36, Golden 0.95, JW 0.84, Jackinho 0.83.

*OG For the Event: Valde 1.20 Rating, mantuu 1.09, NBK 0.92, Aleksib 0.91, ISSAA 0.85.

*Fnatic Over the Last Three Months of Play: KRIMZ 1.14 Rating, Jackinho 1.26, Brollan 1.18, JW 1.11, Golden 0.95.

*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play: valde 1.17 Rating, mantuu 1.14, Aleksib 1.04, NBK 1.01, ISSAA 0.99.

H2H Data:

*These two squads faced-off six total times last year with both teams splitting three wins a piece. OG swept fnatic in their most recent match back at Flashpoint2 but a 16-5 result on Overpass and a 16-14 decision on Mirage. Fnatic had won the prior two matches leading up that match. Four of the six total matches did see three maps, as well.

*fnatic vs OG (16 Maps): KRIMZ 0, 1.00 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

*OG vs fnatic (16 Maps): mantuu +66 K-D Diff, 1.28 K-D, 1.15 Rating. ISSAA +63 K-D Diff, 1.25 K-D, 1.17 Rating. valde +51 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.19 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for OG and Nuke for fnatic. Fnatic will likely go with Train again as they really looked dominant on it in yesterday’s match against Complexity. I believe OG will continue to stick with their best map in Inferno.

*fnatic on Train (5 Maps): KRIMZ 1.14 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 85.3 ADR. Brollan 1.13, JW 1.08, Jackinho 0.94, Golden 0.90. On Inferno (4 Maps): KRIMZ 1.14 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 77.4 ADR. JW 1.06, Brollan 1.01, Golden 0.90.

*OG on Inferno (12 Maps): valde 1.27 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 84.9 ADR. NBK 1.09, mantuu 1.04, Aleksib 0.99, ISSAA 0.97. On Train (5 Maps): mantuu 0.98 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 0.85 IMP, 68.6 ADR. Aleksib 0.97, ISSAA 0.91, valde 0.89, NBK 0.84.

Analysis: I would not be surprised to see this match go the full three rounds once again and continue that trend for these head-to-head meetings. I could easily see both teams winning their map picks and then it going to a decider. OG does lead the H2H series for these two teams, but fnatic did look pretty good against Complexity. OG looked a tad bit rusty, but I expect them to play much better in this match. I can never count out fnatic, but I do like some OG. I think we see an OG 2-1 win, but it’s close.

 

Mousesports (Ranked 11th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 6th in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -120/Mouse -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125

*This is a best of three Group B winner’s match out of the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*Mousesports For the Event: frozen 1.79 Rating, Bymas 1.28, Karrigan 1.25, ropz 1.18, acoR 1.01.

*Heroic For the Event: TeSeS 1.60 Rating, stavn 1.11, cadiaN 1.03, b0RUP 1.03, niko 0.91.

*Mousesports Over the Last Three Months of Play: acoR 1.18 Rating, ropz 1.17, frozen 1.15, Bymas 1.07, Karrigan 0.92.

*Heroic Over the Last Three Months of Play: Stavn 1.13 Rating, TeSeS 1.13, cadiaN 1.09, niko 1.03, b0RUP 0.95.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played just once in 2020 with Mouse coming out the victor in a 2-1 result at the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Showdown with scores of 16-8 on Train, 16-7 on Nuke, and Heroic won Mirage 16-14.

*Top Performers for Mouse: ropz +16 K-D Diff, 1.24 Rating, 79.9 ADR. Frozen +18 K-D Diff, 1.21 Rating, 79.2 ADR. Bymas +6 K-D Diff, 1.07 Rating, 70.9 ADR.

*Top Performers for Heroic: TeSeS +6 K-D Diff, 1.13 Rating, 82.2 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Overpass for Mouse. Both teams are favoring Nuke heavily, so we can likely throw that one in the mix, and I also think we could see Train or Vertigo depending on who gets the first map choice. I would like to see Train here, but I could easily see it being Vertigo of Heroic is last to pick.

*Mouse on Nuke (9 Maps): acoR 1.33 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 81.8 ADR. Ropz 1.14, frozen 1.10, Bymas 0.94, Karrigan 0.83. On Vertigo (3 Maps): ropz 1.21 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 83.9 ADR. acoR 1.10, frozen 1.06, Bymas 1.06, Karrigan 0.85.

*Heroic on Nuke (10 Maps): stavn 1.19 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 89.1 ADR. cadiaN 1.10, niko 1.09, TeSeS 1.05, b0RUP 0.95. On Train (6 Maps): TeSeS 1.37 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.64 IMP, 93.5 ADR. Stavn 1.19, niko 1.06, cadiaN 0.98, b0RUP 0.97.

Analysis: Heroic started out pretty rusty yesterday against a much weaker opponent and almost let a map slip on map one but pulled it together last minute and then took care of business on the 2nd map for the sweep. Mouse came out and throat-punched FaZe into submission with a 2-0 and not sure FaZe won over 10 or so rounds total in both maps. I really do like this new look for Mouse, and they look to be super strong now. If Heroic starts off as slow as they did yesterday, Mouse could easily 2-0 this match. Nuke is a home map for both teams, so I think it is really up to the second map that is chosen.

 

Virtus.Pro (Ranked 10th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 9th in World)

Betting Odds: V.Pro -255/FURIA +190

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three Group C winner’s match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.

*V.Pro For Event: Jame 1.64 Rating, buster 1.53, qikert 1.47, YEKINDAR 1.43, SANJI 1.05.

*FURIA For Event: yuurih 1.17 Rating, KSCERATO 1.09, arT 1.01, VINI 0.97, honda 0.80.

*V.Pro Over the Last Three Months of Play: Jame 1.15 Rating, buster 1.10, YEKINDAR 1.10, qikert 1.07, SANJI 0.95.

*FURIA Over the Last Three Months of Play: yuurih 1.15 Rating, KSCERATO 1.12, arT 0.96, VINI 0.97, honda 0.87.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played one match recently at the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Showdown with FURIA winning 2-1 with map wins of Inferno 16-6, and Train 16-9, while V.Pro won Mirage 16-13.

*Top Performers for V.Pro: buster 0 K-D Diff, 1.02 Rating, 69.5 ADR.

*Top Performers for FURIA: yuurih +27 K-D Diff, 1.46 Rating, 95.0 ADR. KSCERATO +19 K-D Diff, 1.28 Rating, 90.2 ADR. arT +5 K-D Diff, 1.08 Rating, 79.5 ADR.

MAPS:

*The two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for V.Pro and Dust2 for FURIA. I believe we can pencil in Inferno and Mirage for this match.

*V.Pro on Mirage (12 Maps): Jame 1.20 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 75.2 ADR. Buster 1.05, YEKINDAR 1.05, qikert 1.04, SANJI 0.87. On Inferno (12 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.14 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 77.6 ADR. Buster 1.12, Jame 1.09, qikert 1.08, SANJI 1.03.

*FURIA on Inferno (14 Maps): yuurih 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 80.2 ADR. VINI 1.15, KSCERATO 1.10, arT 0.99, honda 0.82. On Mirage (11 Maps): yuurih 1.16 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 83.5 ADR. KSCERATO 1.12, honda 1.09, arT 0.97, VINI 0.92.

Analysis: Was actually quite shocked at the odds that were placed on this match with V.Pro being a 2.5-to-1 favorite here. FURIA didn’t play as well against C9 today, but they still pulled out the win in the end. V.Pro played against a team that I think really isn’t that great in NiP, so I think this match is actually much closer than the odds are posting, BUT that is why Vegas still stands. Play with caution. Usually FURIA isn’t a dog very often. I could easily see this match going three maps.

 

*TOP STACKS: OG, Heroic

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: FURIA, Mousesports

*TOP CPT PLAYS: valde, stavn, TeSeS, mantuu, ropz, acoR, yuurih, Jame

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: ISSAA, cadiaN, KSCERATO, frozen, VINI, Bymas