CS:GO DFS Playbook – CS_Summit 7 1.25.2021 (6-Match)
OG (Ranked 6th in World) @ Dignitas (Ranked 30th in World)
Betting Odds: OG -900/Dignitas +505
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +170/Under -230
*This is a best of three Group A opening round match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.
*Both of these teams have not played a major event for some time. OG hasn’t played since December 10th, and Dignitas hasn’t played since January 14th.
*OG Over the Last Three Months of Play (44 Maps): Valde 1.18 Rating, mantuu 1.15, Aleksib 1.05, NBK 1.02, ISSAA 1.00.
*DIG Over the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): hallzerk 1.08 Rating, f0rest 1.02, HEAP 1.02, H4RR3 0.96, friberg 0.84.
H2H Data:
*These two teams played one match in 2020 at the Flashpoint 2 Event with OG winning 16-5 on Inferno and 16-14 on Nuke for the 2-0 sweep.
*OG vs DIG (2 Maps): Valde +14 K-D Diff, 1.40 Rating, 81.2 ADR. Mantuu +9 K-D Diff, 1.21 Rating, 64.5 ADR. NBK +7 K-D Diff, 1.20 Rating, 86.0 ADR. Aleksib +7 K-D Diff, 1.19 Rating, 67.5 ADR. ISSAA +7 K-D Diff, 1.18 Rating, 67.6 ADR.
*DIG vs OG (2 Maps): f0rest -1 K-D Diff, 0.92 Rating, 62.7 ADR. Next best is H4RR3 at -2 K-D Diff.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for DIG, and Vertigo for OG. OG continues to go with Inferno as their first map choice and Nuke the same for DIG.
*OG on Inferno (12 Maps): Valde 1.32 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 88.4 ADR. NBK 1.11, mantuu 1.02, Aleksib 1.00, ISSAA 0.93. On Nuke (6 Maps): Aleksib 1.31 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.50 IMP, 91.9 ADR. Valde 1.14, mantuu 1.09, ISSAA 1.04, NBK 0.95.
*DIG on Nuke (10 Maps): hallzerk 1.22 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 81.4 ADR. F0rest 1.16, HEAP 1.06, H4RR3 1.03, friberg 0.86. On Inferno (6 Maps): hallzerk 1.00 Rating, 0.65 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 70.3 ADR. Friberg 0.93, HEAP 0.91, H4RR3 0.87, f0rest 0.79.
Analysis: I believe we are going to see a similar outcome here for this match as we did in their most recent meeting back at the Flashpoint 2 Event. This OG team is very solid through and through and have been a top 5 team before. DIG is trying to resurface as a Swedish CS top team, but they have lost a few original teammates along the way and are still trying to make things work with the new faces in HEAP and H4RR3. I think OG can sweep this match again.
Fnatic (Ranked 15th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 12th in World)
Betting Odds: fnatic -120/Complexity -105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -125
*This is a best of three Group A opening round match out of the CS_Summit 7 Event.
*This is the first time we will see fnatic without flusha (jackinho replaced) as he stepped away from the game recently, and also our next chance to see if Complexity improves with their newest addition of JUGi instead of Poizon. Important to also note that fnatic hasn’t played a major Event match since December 6th.
*fnatic Over the Last Three Months of Play (27 Maps): Brollan 1.16 Rating, JW 1.09, KRIMZ 1.09, Golden 0.91. (no stats for jackinho)
*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play (40 Maps): blameF 1.16 Rating, k0nfig 1.11, jks 0.98, JUGi 0.98, RUSH 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two squads played a total of six times in 2020. Fnatic came out the victor in four of the six matches played. However, Complexity has won two of the last three matches played. Four of the six matches were all result of a sweep, with two going a full three-map distance.
*Fnatic vs Complexity (14 Maps): Brollan +30 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.13 Rating. KRIMZ +23 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.08 Rating. JW +4 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
*Complexity vs Fnatic (14 Maps): blameF +73 K-D Diff, 1.29 K-D, 1.24 Rating. K0nfig +8 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.08 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for Fnatic and Inferno for Complexity. Over the last four matches played H2H by these two teams, Mirage has shown up three times, while Nuke, Train, and Vertigo showed up twice. I am pretty sure Complexity go with Mirage as they have a ton lately, and I think we can see Train for fnatic.
*Complexity on Mirage (12 Maps): k0nfig 1.20 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 84.5 ADR. blameF 1.14, RUSH 0.91, jks 0.87. On Train (1 Map): k0nfig 1.00 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 91.9 ADR. Jks 1.00, blameF 0.72, RUSH 0.48.
*fnatic on Train (4 Maps): JW 1.14 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 72.7 ADR. Brollan 1.06, KRIMZ 1.02, Golden 0.89. On Mirage (6 Maps): JW 1.12 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 77.1 ADR. Brollan 1.07, KRIMZ 0.97, Golden 0.87.
Analysis: I truly believe we see three maps out of this match. Both teams are considerably even on paper and are both playing with new faces on their team. Fnatic may be a bit rusty starting out after the long break, so I could give a slight edge to Complexity in that regard. I think this match is close and I like a few players on both sides.
FaZe (Ranked 14th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 10th in World)
Betting Odds: Mousesports -150/FaZe +115
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*This is a best of three Group B opening round match out of the CS_Summit 7 Event
*Both of these teams have been off on the break and haven’t played since early December. It is worth noting that Mousesports did acquire a pretty big name in acoR from MAD Lions, and that is definitely a huge get for them for their roster.
*FaZe Over the Last Three Months of Play (22 Maps): Broky 1.10 Rating, coldzera 1.03, Kjaerbye 0.99, rain 0.97.
*Mousesports Over the Last Three Months of Play (34 Maps): ropz 1.17 Rating, frozen 1.12, Bymas 1.06, Karrigan 0.91.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played four total matches in 2020, with Mouse winning three of the four, including a victory by sweep in the most recent at ESL Pro League Season 12 Euro.
*Mouse vs FaZe (10 Maps): frozen +27 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.13 Rating. Ropz +27 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.14 Rating.
*FaZe vs Mouse (10 Maps): coldzera +31 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.13 Rating. broky +22 K-D Diff, 1.15 K-D, 1.08 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Overpass for Mouse and Vertigo for FaZe. FaZe has continued to stick with Mirage as their first map choice, while Mouse is going with Nuke.
FaZe on Mirage (7 Maps): broky 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 77.1 ADR. Coldzera 1.05, Kjaerbye 0.99, rain 0.86, olofmeister 0.80. On Nuke (5 Maps): broky 1.13 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 74.8 ADR. Kjaerbye 1.06, rain 1.02, coldzera 0.98, Olof 0.90.
Mouse on Nuke (9 Maps): acoR (7 Maps) 1.33 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 81.8 ADR. ropz 1.14, Frozen 1.10, Bymas 0.94, Karrigan 0.83. On Mirage (2 Maps): Bymas 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 75.1 ADR. acoR 1.09, Frozen 0.93, ropz 0.89, Karrigan 0.82.
Analysis: I think that this also should be a pretty close match, but I do think the addition of acoR for Mousesports could be a huge factor here as they were really lacking a great AWPer, and now they have one which will literally open up their roster for guys like frozen and Bymas to shine even more. I do like Mouse a tad more in this one, but broky has been elite and coldzera is usually a solid play, as well.
Heroic (Ranked 5th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 53rd in World)
Betting Odds: Heroic -455/MIBR +305
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -170
*This is a best of three Group B opening round match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.
*It is highly worth noting that this MIBR team is a complete over-hauled line up and basically is the BOOM roster without felps (BOOM’s best player at the time), and with danoco added.
*Heroic Over the Last Three Months of Play (45 Maps): stavn 1.15 Rating, cadiaN 1.11, TeSeS 1.10, niko 1.02, b0RUP 0.94.
*MIBR Over the Last Three Months of Play (10 Maps): boltz 1.38 Rating, yel 1.33, shz 1.30, chelo 1.29 (no stats for danoco)
H2H Data:
*There is no head-to-head data for recent matches to analyze, and it literally wouldn’t matter as this MIBR team is brand-ass new.
MAPS:
*The first ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Overpass for Heroic. Nuke is going to show up, as it has been a first map choice for both teams lately, and I also think we will see Vertigo.
*Heroic on Nuke (11 Maps): stavn 1.21 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 91.3 ADR. cadiaN 1.09, niko 1.06, TeSeS 1.03, b0RUP 0.94. On Vertigo (7 Maps): TeSeS 1.15 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 80.7 ADR. Stavn 1.14, cadiaN 1.03, niko 1.03, b0RUP 0.94.
*MIBR on Vertigo (12 Maps): boltz 1.37 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 90.3 ADR. Shz 1.33, yel 1.32, chelo 1.19. On Nuke (2 Maps); yel 1.59 Rating, 1.06 KPR, 1.65 IMP, 94.9 ADR. Shz 1.27, boltz 1.02, chelo 0.99. (*NOTE – These numbers were against a lower-tier CS competition than most, so don’t read into them too heavily as this was a team that was crushing a smaller scene for Brazil CS and now jumped up straight to Tier-1 competition)
Analysis: How can I put this easily? Heroic should have a field day against this team as long as they take this match seriously. This MIBR team as mentioned is just BOOM without felps, who was their best upside player. They have talent, as they were one of the best lower-tier Brazilian teams on the scene, but this is a MAJOR jump in competition for them and Heroic is a top-5 CS team. I like Heroic quite a bit here.
FURIA (Ranked 7th in World) @ Cloud9 (Ranked 21st in World):
Betting Odds: FURIA -255/C9 +190
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140
*This is a best of three Group C opening round match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.
*FURIA will continue to play with stand-in honda for this Event, and C9 also made a recent roster change as they acquired the best player on Chaos in Xeppaa and booted Woxic from their roster.
*FURIA Over the Last Three Months of Play (44 Maps): yuurih 1.15 Rating, KSCERATO 1.12, VINI 0.97, honda 0.98, arT 0.96.
*Cloud9 Over the Last Three Months of Play (24 Maps): Xeppaa 1.12 Rating, es3tag 1.04, floppy 1.00, ALEX 0.99, mezii 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played any matches in recent memory.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for C9 and Dust2 for FURIA. The two first maps picked lately have been Overpass for Cloud9 and Inferno for FURIA.
*FURIA on Inferno (13 Maps): yuurih 1.22 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 81.6 ADR. VINI 1.17, KSCERATO 1.07, arT 0.98, honda 0.82. On Overpass (5 Maps): KSCERATO 1.17 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 74.8 ADR. Yuurih 1.14, VINI 0.94, arT 0.91 (honda has yet to play Overpass).
*Cloud9 on Overpass (8 Maps): Xeppaa (15 Maps) 1.22 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 81.5 ADR. Es3tag 1.11, Mezii 1.11, Floppy 1.06, ALEX 0.81. On Inferno (11 maps): mezzi 1.04 Rating, 0.64 KPR, 0.99 IMP, 72.9 ADR. Xeppaa 1.02, es3tag 1.02, ALEX 1.01, floppy 0.97.
Analysis: Xeppaa is no doubt a good get for Cloud9, however, I am not sure they are on FURIA’s level at the moment. FURIA has gotten in a few major Event matches now with honda and likely have been able to practice on their schemes and set-ups as a result. Cloud9 has yet to play a major Event match since acquiring Xep and I think they may be a little rusty from the get-go. I like FURIA to jump on them quick here and the maps are in their favor for the most part.
Virtus.pro (Ranked 11th in World) @ Ninjas in Pajamas (Ranked 16th in World)
Betting Odds: V.pro -145/NiP +110
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*This is a best of three Group C opening round match for the CS_Summit 7 Event.
*Both of these teams have been on break since early December (V.pro) and early January (NiP). The good news here however is that neither team has switched any roster players, so the rosters are the same as before the break.
*NiP Over the Last Three Months of Play (25 Maps): REZ 1.09 Rating, hampus 1.04, nawwk 1.01, Plopski 0.98, twist 0.89.
*V.pro Over the Last Three Months of Play (63 Maps): Jame 1.15 Rating, YEKINDAR 1.11, buster 1.09, qikert 1.05, SANJI 0.96.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have not played a head-to-head match in 2020 or 2021.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for NiP and Nuke for V.pro. V.pro was choosing Dust2 as their first map choice lately, so they will likely have to play a secondary map. NiP has been going with Mirage as their first pick roughly 30% of the time lately, while V.Pro is going with Inferno as their next-most chosen map around 37% of the time.
*V.pro on Inferno (13 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.13 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 77.2 ADR. Buster 1.10, Jame 1.10, SANJI 1.05, qikert 1.01. On Mirage (14 Maps): Jame 1.19 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 73.3 ADR. YEKINDAR 1.11, buster 1.05, qikert 1.01, SANJI 0.86.
*NiP on Mirage (5 Maps): nawwk 1.08 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 72.8 ADR. REZ 1.06, hampus 0.97, twist 0.73, Plopski 0.68. On Inferno (2 Maps): twist 1.08 Rating, 0.58 KPR, 0.96 IMP, 77.2 ADR. Hampus 1.05, Plopski 1.03, REZ 0.97, nawwk 0.96.
Analysis: I think the map pool here is much stronger in the favor of V.pro. They are a solid team and literally have a 65+ win% on just about every map in the pool. This NiP team has been shaky and sub-par at best with their players having health issues (nawwk) and guys like Plopski under-performing terribly. I think the best overall squad here easily is Virtus.pro.
*TOP STACKS: Heroic, OG, Virtus.pro, FURIA
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Complexity, Cloud9
*TOP CPT PLAYS: stavn, valde, mantuu, Jame, YEKINDAR, ropz, yuurih, blameF, k0nfig, broky
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: cadiaN, TeSeS, Aleksib, frozen, coldzera, JW, es3tag, Bymas, jks, floppy