CS:GO DFS Playbook IEM Global Challenge 2020 12.17.2020 (2-Match)

FURIA (Ranked 6th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 4th in World):

Betting Odds: Heroic -120/FURIA -110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115

*This is a Group B best of three elimination match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.

*Both teams here come into this match on a 2-match skid, as FURIA couldn’t get past NaVi in both of their previous matches played but did take both matches the full distance in three-map affairs with NaVi claiming both wins in a 2-1 result. Heroic dropped an 0-2 sweep in the first match on Tuesday, and also lost a 1-2 result to GODSENT in the match prior. The Liquid match was their first match of this event, so I would be expecting a bounce-back performance from Heroic. FURIA has not looked great lately, but there last five matches were against all top teams in the world – Astralis, NaVi, G2, OG, so it’s not something to sneer at, however, they haven’t looked good overall.

*FURIA Over the Last Month of Play (28 Maps): yuurih 1.17 Rating, HEN1 1.13, KSCERATO 1.12, VINI 1.01, arT 0.99.

*Heroic Over the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): stavn 1.09 Rating (expect a bounce-back after his 15.5 fantasy point outing yesterday), cadiaN 1.08, TeSeS 1.08, niko 0.97, b0RUP 0.88.

*These two teams have no recent head-to-head meetings to analyze.

MAPS:

*The first ban maps for this match should include Dust2 and Overpass. The likely first picks for this match should include Inferno for FURIA (75% success rate there over L20 maps), and Nuke for Heroic (76% success rate over L18 maps).

*Heroic on Nuke (17 Maps): stavn 1.22 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 88.8 ADR. cadiaN 1.16, niko 1.11, TeSeS 1.11, b0RUP 0.94. On Inferno (13 Maps): cadiaN 1.14 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 77.2 ADR. TeSeS 1.11, stavn 1.06, niko 0.94, b0RUP 0.86.

*FURIA on Inferno (20 Maps): yuurih 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 80.8 ADR. HEN1 1.16, KSCERATO 1.15, VINI 1.14, arT 1.01. On Nuke (18 Maps): KSCERATO 1.17 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 80.9 ADR. HEN1 1.11, yuurih 1.04, VINI 1.01, arT 0.99.

ANALYSIS: I think we could see this match go three maps. Both teams here are coming off losses, Heroic was off for 10-12 days before their match against Liquid, so definitely maybe a little rust in the tank there. Expect both teams to be hungry for a win, as this is an elimination match. I think we easily see three maps here. If I pick a team to win – I think Heroic come ready to play.

 

NaVi (Ranked 3rd in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 17th in World):

Betting Odds: NaVi -285/Liquid +200

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a Group B Winner’s bracket best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.

*Both of these teams are fresh off sweeps over their recent opponents with NaVi taking care of business against FURIA in their first round of this Event, while Liquid handed the same result to Heroic on Tuesday as well in their first match of this Event. Liquid broke a three-match skid with their win, while NaVi bounced-back after an 0-2 sweep loss to Astralis.

*NaVi Over the Last Month of Play (21 Maps): s1mple 1.40 Rating, electronic 1.17, Perfecto 1.01, flamie 0.91, boombl4 0.89.

*Liquid Over the Last Month of Play (17 Maps): Grim 1.09 Rating, EliGe 1.05, NAF 1.03, Stewie2K 0.96, Twistzz 0.96.

*These teams have played one lone match so far in 2020 back in February in the IEM Katowice 2020 Event with NaVi taking the match in a 2-0 sweep with a 16-13 result on Mirage and a 16-11 result on Dust2. (This match did have nitr0 instead of Grim)

*Top Performers for NaVi vs Liquid (2 Maps): s1mple +14 K-D Diff, 1.28 Rating, 86.0 ADR. Electronic +5 K-D Diff, 1.16 Rating, 83.8 ADR. Perfecto +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 Rating, 63.1 ADR.

*Top Performers for Liquid vs NaVi (2 Maps): EliGe +11 K-D Diff, 1.32 Rating, 101.8 ADR.

MAPS:

*The two ban maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Vertigo for NaVi. I believe the two maps that will be chosen for this match will include Dust2 and Mirage, as this was the first two chosen for their prior head to head and it just makes sense for both teams here again. It wouldn’t shock me to see Nuke or Inferno here either, but I am sticking to what the numbers say.

*NaVi on Dust2 (11 Maps): s1mple 1.35 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.48 IMP, 93.5 ADR. Electronic 1.06, Perfecto 0.97, flamie 0.89, boom 0.86. On Mirage (8 Maps): electronic 1.20 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 89.5 ADR. S1mple 1.14, Perfecto 1.08, flamie 1.05, boom 1.02.

*Liquid on Mirage (8 Maps): EliGe 1.17 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 85.9 ADR. NAF 1.05, Grim 1.04, Stewie2K 0.92, Twistzz 0.88. On Dust2 (8 maps): EliGe 1.29 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 94.8 ADR. Grim 1.25, NAF 1.21, Stewie2k 1.20, Twistzz 1.07.

ANALYSIS: Believe there are lots of things factoring into this match. 1.) This is a revenge spot for Liquid, somewhat and Grim is a better player than nitr0 was before he left Liquid. 2.) NaVi has been playing some of the BEST teams in the world lately, so this doesn’t exactly bode well for Liquid. 3.) NaVi is a pretty hefty favorite in this match, and I get why. 4.) The projected maps aren’t skewed as much as I thought they would be on the NaVi side, as Liquid rates out pretty good on both. I think we have another close match, it wouldn’t shock me if NaVi sweeps again, but I think Liquid will likely be the leverage on this slate.

 

*Top Stacks:

1.) NaVi – s1mple, electronic, Perfecto (boom has been hitting value lately)

2.) Heroic – stavn, cadiaN, TeSeS, (niko went for 67 on Tuesday)

*Top Contrarian Stack: FURIA – yuurih, HEN1, KSCERATO

*Top Plays: s1mple, cadiaN, stavn, electronic, yuurih, EliGe