CS:GO DFS Playbook 12/2/2020 – FlashPoint2/DreamHackMasters Winter

Virtus.pro (Ranked 16th in World) @ BIG (Ranked 5th in World):

Betting Odds: BIG -125/Virtus.pro -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is an upper bracket semi-final match in FlashPoint 2 Event.

*BIG has now reeled of four-straight wins in their last five after dropping an 0-2 result to Complexity. Virtus.pro were winners in their most recent match against the MAD Lions, but have alternated wins over their last five with losses to FURIA and OG and wins over Gen.G and Spirit alongside MAD.

*For the Event for V.pro: Jame 1.17 Rating, YEKINDAR 1.03, buster 0.98, SANJI 0.94, qikert 0.92

*For the Event for BIG: syrsoN 1.25 Rating, XANTARES 1.24, tiziaN 1.13, tabseN 1.05, k1to 1.02

*These two squads have played two matches in 2020, however V.pro had AdreN over buster at that time. BIG swept the first best of three played in April at the Home Sweet Home Cup 1, and then beat them again in in June in a 2-1 result at the ESL Pro League.

*Top Players for BIG vs V.pro (6 Maps): tabseN +18 K-D Diff, 1.15 K-D, 1.21 Rating. XANTARES +17 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.12 Rating. syrsoN +12 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.09 Rating.

*Top Players for V.pro vs BIG (4 Maps): YEKINDAR +15 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.21 Rating. Jame +11 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, 1.06 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke and Train. Both of these teams are favoring Dust2 as their first map choice, so we can pencil that one in already. I think the secondary map we likely see will be Inferno.

*BIG on Dust2 (18 Maps): syrsoN 1.20 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 77.7 ADR. XANTARES 1.10, tabseN 1.04, k1to 1.02, tiziaN 1.01. On Inferno (14 Maps): tiziaN 1.10 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 80.7 ADR. XANTARES 1.03, syrsoN 1.00, tabseN 0.96, k1to 0.94.

*V.Pro on Inferno (22 Maps): YEKINDAR 1.15 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 81.0 ADR. Jame 1.14, buster 1.13, qikert 1.13, SANJI 1.02. On Dust2 (20 Maps): Jame 1.30 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.50 DPR!, 1.25 IMP, 78.4 ADR. YEKINDAR 1.25, qikert 1.15, buster 1.12, SANJI 1.00.

 

Astralis (Ranked 4th in World) @ G2 (Ranked 8th in World):

Betting Odds: Astralis -195/G2 +150

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -100/Under -130

*This is the Group Blower bracket semi-finals with the winner advancing to the playoffs for DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Event.

*Astralis got over the hump in their most recent match sweeping Liquid yesterday, breaking a two-match skid losing to GODSENT 1-2 and being swept by NaVi in their two prior. G2 lost yesterday to FURIA in a 1-2 result but had won three of their four prior to the loss.

*For the Event for Astralis: device 1.32 Rating, Magisk 1.11, Xyp9x 1.03, dupreeh 1.03, gla1ve 0.97

*For the Event for G2: NiKo 1.10 Rating, kennyS 1.10, huNter 1.04, nexa 0.98, AmaNEk 0.92

*These two have played several times in 2020, more recently in the BLAST Premier Fall Series and the DreamHack Events. G2 swept Astralis in their most recent meeting (Revenge narrative for Astralis?), but Astralis had won the two prior in three-map efforts. G2 swept the last match to date as well, so the series at this point is tied 2-2.

*Top Players for Astralis vs G2 (14 Maps): device +71 K-D Diff, 1.32 K-D, 1.30 Rating. Dupreeh +26 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.08 Rating.

*Top Players for G2 vs Astralis (11 Maps): NiKo +29 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.17 Rating. huNter +5 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.02 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two bans for this match should include Overpass and Mirage. The first two typical picks for these teams lately include Nuke and Dust2. In the four prior matches head-to-head, Nuke showed up in all four, as well as Dust2. Think these two maps are pretty safe bets to show up again.

*Astralis on Nuke (19 Maps): device 1.21 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 78.1 ADR. Gla1ve 1.10, dupreeh 1.07, Magisk 1.03, Xyp9x 0.88. On Dust2 (14 Maps): dupreeh 1.16 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 82.1 ADR. Device 1.12, Xyp9x 1.09, Magisk 1.01, gla1ve 0.95.

*G2 on Dust2 (16 Maps): NiKo 1.40 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.56 IMP, 99.6 ADR (wow). kennyS 1.15, huNter 1.10, nexa 1.00. On Nuke (19 Maps): NiKo 1.11 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 83.2 ADR. huNter 1.10, nexa 1.02, kennyS 0.97.

 

North (Ranked 31st in World) @ GODSENT (Ranked 23rd in World):

Betting Odds: GODSENT -175/North +135

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115

*This is a Group B lower bracket semi-final with the winner advancing to the playoffs of DreamHack Masters Winter Event.

*North broke a four-match skid in their most recent match beating Nemiga in a 2-1 effort, while GODSENT dropped a 1-2 decision to Mousesports in their most recent match after beating Astralis in the opening round of this Event.

*For the Event for North: gade 1.09 Rating, Lekr0 1.03, kristou 1.03, kreaz 1.00, cajunb 0.76

*For the Event for GODSENT: zehN 1.08 Rating, Farlig 1.07, emi 0.95, Maden 0.89, STYKO 0.88

*These two teams did play recent in October, however kRYSTAL is no longer with GODSENT, and both aizy and MSL have been transferred from North since then, as well so no need in diving too deep into H2H data.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage and Dust2. The two typical first map choices for these teams lately include Overpass and Nuke. However, North went with Train against Nemiga in their last match and I believe this presents them a good map here to utilize as they have won 60% of their last 10 tries there compared to just 44% for GOD over their last nine opportunities. Not to mention the fact that North has lost 5-straight on Overpass. Think we see Train and Nuke here.

*GODSENT on Nuke (20 Maps): zehN 1.20 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 84.7 ADR. STYKO 1.14, Farlig 1.14, emi 1.09, Maden 1.06. On Train (9 Maps): Farlig 1.10 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.97 IMP, 74.3 ADR. zehN 1.02, Maden 1.01, emi 0.93, STYKO 0.90.

*North on Train (10 Maps): Lekr0 1.16 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 80.1 ADR. Kristou 1.10, cajunb 1.10, gade 1.00. On Nuke (11 Maps): gade 1.12 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 76.7 ADR. Cajunb 1.05, Kristou 1.04, Lekr0 1.03. (Kreaz just came over from Gen.G and has not played a match yet with North)

 

Fnatic (Ranked 14th in World) @ MIBR (Ranked 25th in World):

Betting Odds: fnatic -135/MIBR +105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is an upper bracket semi-final for the FlashPoint 2 Event.

*Don’t look now, but fnatic have won four of their last five matches, three-straight over Dignitas, MAD, and Dignitas again. MIBR out-lasted OG in their most recent match in a 2-1 victory after suffering an 0-2 loss sweep to Liquid the match before.

*For the Event for Fnatic: Brollan 1.27 Rating, KRIMZ 1.24, JW 1.17, Golden 1.04, flusha 1.02.

*For the Event for MIBR: vsm 1.21 Rating, kNgV 1.12, trk 0.99, leo_drk 0.97, LUCAS1 0.95

*These two teams have no prior head-to-head matches to analyze.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo and Mirage. The two typical first choice maps for these two teams include Nuke and Inferno. Feel decently confident we see these two maps for this match.

*Fnatic on Inferno (20 Maps): KRIMZ 1.11 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.03 IMP, 74.0 ADR. Brollan 1.10, JW 1.04, flusha 1.02, Golden 1.02. On Nuke (5 Maps): KRIMZ 1.04 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 0.85 IMP, 72.1 ADR. Flusha 1.02, Brollan 1.02, JW 0.96, Golden 0.85

 *MIBR on Nuke (9 Maps): kNgV 1.17 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 80.9 ADR. Vsm 1.14, trk 1.12, leo_drk 1.05, LUCAS1 0.99. On Inferno (7 Maps): kNgV 1.21 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 76.0 ADR. Trk 0.98, vsm 0.98, leo_drk 0.90, LUCAS 0.86.

 

*TOP STACKS: Astralis, GODSENT

*TOP PLAYS: device, zehN, Farlig, kNGv, Jame, YEKINDAR, NiKo, syrsoN, KRIMZ

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Vitrus.pro, MIBR