Esports CS:GO DFS Playbook: November 30
Sean Mitchell dives into all the important statistics and map data to help you build winning lineups for Monday's CS:GO DFS Slate!
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Astralis (4th world) @ GODSENT (23rd world):
BETTING ODDS: Astralis -715/GOD +435
MAP ODDS: 2.5 Over +155/Under -215
*Group B upper bracket quarter-final for DHM winter
*Astralis losers last match to NaVi 1-2. Won prior three of four against Mouse, ENCE, G2, only other loss vs G2 0-2
*GOD losers in last two to Mouse 0-2, Espada 0-2, Won three prior over Heroic (2-0), HAVU, and Lyng vikings
*Ratings Over L month Astralis (15 Maps): device 1.20, dupreeh 1.09, Magisk 1.05, Xyp9x 1.02, Gla1ve 0.95
*Ratings Over L month GOD (6 maps): Farlig 1.07, zehN 1.05, STYKO 0.99, Maden 0.98, emi 0.62
*These two have played four maps in 2020, but with totally different team make ups - Xyp, gla1ve, emi
*Astralis did win all four - GOD didnt win over 10 rounds, (3,7,5)
*First to bans are Mirage and Dust2. First two map picks are Nuke (by both teams) and secondaries include Overpass
(GOD) and Inferno (Astralis). Overpass 78% win over L9 for GOD, Inferno near 80% win over L14.
*Astralis on Nuke (18 Maps): device 1.22 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 78.1 ADR. gla1ve 1.12, dupreeh 1.07,
Magisk 1.04, xyp9x 0.85. On Inferno (14 maps): device 1.23 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 88.2 ADR. dupreeh 1.18
Magisk 1.15, Xyp9x 1.11, gla1ve 1.01.
*GOD on Nuke (19 Maps): zehN 1.17 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 83.2 ADR. STYKO 1.15, Farlig 1.14, Maden 1.06, emi 0
On Overpass (9 Maps): Farlig 1.23 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 82.2 ADR. Maden 1.17, zehN 1.16, STYKO 1.08, emi 0
*ANALYSIS: Astralis likely a 2-0 here. Emi stand-in hurts GOD and they just dont have the fire-power to hold against
Astralis on these maps.
Liquid (14th in World) @ Mouse (18th in World):
*Group B upper bracket quarter-final for DHM Winter
*BETTING ODDS: Mouse -133/Liquid +100
*MAP ODDS: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*Liquid won four of last five, only loss 1-2 to Triumph, (FURIA MATCH lost 2-1 Sunday) . Mouse winners in last two-straight over Heroic (2-1) and GOD (2-0)
*Over Last Month of Play for Liquid (14 Maps): Grim 1.21 rating, EliGe 1.20, NAF 1.19, Stew 1.01, Twistzz 1.01
*Over Last Month of Play for Mouse (14 Maps): ropz 1.23, frozen 1.16, Bymas 1.00, ChrisJ 0.99, Karrigan 0.92
*These two have yet to play in 2020, and the 2019 matches played dont have much weight as both teams had different players at that time.
(Liquid won all three matches played with Mouse winning one of the 7 maps played on vertigo)
*First two ban maps for this match will be Train and Overpass. Nuke is being chosen first by both, but think we may see Dust2 again out of Liquid as
they have won 6-straight there and 75% of their last 8 opps, compared to Mouse 33% over L12.
*Liquid on Dust2 (8 Maps): EliGe 1.42 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.57 IMP, 101.3 ADR. Grim 1.29, NAF 1.22, Stew 1.22, Twistz 1.08
On Nuke (12 Maps): NAF 1.32 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 93.7 ADR. eliGe 1.20, Twistzz 1.13, Grim 1.12, Stew 0.92
*Mouse on Nuke (18 maps): ropz 1.26 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 90.1 ADR. frozen 1.08, chrisJ 1.00, Bymas 0.96, Karr 0.93
On Dust2 (12 Maps): ropz 1.11 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 79.5 ADR. frozen 1.03, Bymas 0.93, Karr 0.80, ChrisJ 0.79
ANAYLSIS: Liquid rates out better on both maps, have been better in recent form and have the better overall team here. Uncertain why they are dogs
on the betting odds and honestly I cannot tell you a reason why I think Mouse could win this one. Liquid did play a tough 3-map loss vs FUR yesterday
BIG (5th in World) @ Envy (58th in World):
*BETTING ODDS: BIG -555/Envy +360
*MAP ODDS: 2.5 Over +140/Under -190
*Upper bracket quarter-final for Flashpoint 2 Event
*BIG winners of three-straight and four of L5, sweeps in last two over ALT Att, Unicorns of Love. Envy losers in last four of five, only win last match at
Gen.G in a 2-1 result.
*Over Last Month of Play for Envy (9 maps): Calyx 1.19 Rating, MICHU 1.06, nifty 0.97, Thomas 0.89, LEGIJA 0.88\
*Over Last Month of Play for BIG (32 Maps): syrsoN 1.13 rating, tabseN 1.10, XANTARES 1.10, k1to 1.03, Tizian 0.98
*These two have not played any recent H2Hs.
*The first two bans for this match will include Vertigo and Train. Both have picked Dust2 as first pick lately, with Envy also playing Nuke the most times
since rejoining major events. Believe that is a good chance we see Dust2 and Nuke for this one.
*Envy on Nuke (3 Maps): Calyx 1.17 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 85.3 ADR. MICHU 1.07, LEGIJA 0.87, Nifty 0.87, Thomas 0.83
On Dust2 (2 Maps): MICHU 2.03 Rating, 1.27 KPR, 2.10 IMP, 124 ADR. Calyx 1.57, Nifty 1.36, LEGIJA 1.30, Thomas 1.16
*BIG on Dust2 (18 Maps): syrsoN 1.22 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 77.8 ADR. XAN 1.11, tabsen 1.04, tiz 1.02, k1to 1.02
On Nuke (18 Maps): XANTARES 1.11 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.04 IMP, 77 ADR. sysroN 1.10, Tabsen 1.03, tizian 0.96, k1to 0.88
ANALYSIS: Think this match is a toss up, Envy not near enough data to go off of but have a strong core, BIG is really good also and maps favor them somewhat
Complexity (10th in World) vs ENCE (30th in World):
*BETTING ODDS: CoL -500/ENCE +330
*MAP ODDS: 2.5 Over +135/Under -180
*Group A upper bracket quarter-final for DHM Winter
*Complexity fresh off a 1-2 loss vs C9, winners in three of four prior should be hungry for bounce back. ENCE losers in all five prior, now with two newer
players in doto and SADDYX (who is in now for Sergej) - Core lu only 4 maps last 30 days, doto sadd less than 5 matches with core
*Over Last Month of Play for CoL (21 Maps): blameF 1.23 Rating, k0nfig 1.20, jks 1.08, poizon 0.99, RUSH 0.98
*Over Last month of play for ENCE (4 Maps): allu 1.18, doto 0.86, jamppi 0.83, suNny 0.79, SADDYX 0.00
*These two have not played H2H recently.
*the first to ban maps for this match include Inferno and Vertigo. First two picks include Train and Mirage.
*Complexity on Mirage (13 maps): poizon 1.25 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 85.9 ADR. k0nfig 1.22, blamef 1.22, jks 1.05, RUSH 0.84
On Train (5 maps): poizon 1.17 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 78.2 ADR. blamef 1.15, k0nfig 1.03, RUSH 0.88, jks 0.00
*ENCE On train (8 Maps): allu 1.23 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 76.8 ADR. jamppi 1.15, suNny 0.98, doto 0.00, saddyx 0.00
On Mirage (5 maps): doto 1.06 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 74.2 ADR. SunNy 0.97, allu 0.89, jampii 0.85, doto 0.59, saddyx 0.00
ANALYSIS: ENCE is in a bad spot. only 3 core players, getting COL off a loss. bounce back spot for CoL and hefty fav here. Like CoL
Cloud9 (152nd in World) @ gambit (20th in World):
*BETTING ODDS: C9 -120/Gambit +105
*MAP ODDS: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115
*Group A upper bracket quarter-final match in DHM Winter
*C9 has reeled off two nice wins in a row over Col and Nip. Gambit winners and all sweeps in last 5 played (lower tier)
*Over Last Month of Play for C9 (9 Maps): woxic 1.08, es3tag 1.04, floppy 1.03, mezii 0.97, ALEX 0.92
*Over Last Month of Play for Gambit (34 Maps): Sh1ro 1.34 rating, Hobbit 1.28, AX1LE 1.25, nafany 1.15, interz 1.04
*These to have no prior H2Hs
*The first two ban maps include Nuke and Mirage. Think there is a great chance we see overpass as both choossing it a ton lately, and I think we see Dust2.
*C9 on Overpass (2 Maps): woxic 1.26 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 77.4 ADR. es3tag 1.11, mezii 1.10, floppy 0.93, ALEX 0.87
On Dust2 - not enough quantity of map played here
*Gambit on Overpass (16 Maps): Ax1LE 1.30 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 89.0 ADR. Sh1ro 1.29, Hobbit 1.20, interz 1.09, nafany 1.08
On Dust2 (18 Maps): Sh1ro 1.20 rating, 0.67 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 73.8 ADR. AX1Le 1.19, Hobbit 1.16, nafany 1.00, interz 0.94
ANALYSIS: Could see C9 taking this one lightly with lower-tier team, but Gambit is strong team. think this could easily see 3 maps
**TOP STACKS: Complexity, Astralis, Liquid,
**TOP PLAYS: blameF, device, Sh1ro, syrsoN, EliGe, ropz
**VALUES: AX1Le, k0nfig, poison, dupreeh, tabseN, frozen
**TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Gambit, Envy
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