Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO November 12
Sean Mitchell brings you all of the important stats and map data for the 6-match CS:GO DFS slate for Thursday in the IEM and FlashPoint2 Events.
CS:GO DFS Playbook 11.12.2020
Cloud9 (Ranked 238th in World) @ Virtus.pro (Ranked 15th in World):
Betting Odds: Virtus.pro -160/Cloud9 +125
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*This is the Group C upper bracket semi-final for the FlashPoint 2 Event.
*Need to remind this is a total rebuild of a lineup for Cloud9 and they have not played any major Events to date. Their last match played for C9 was on September 22nd, and of course had their original core before the rebuild. V.pro have won two of their last three and three of their last five. All three of their wins were 2-0 sweeps against Espada, forZe, and Wisla Krakow. Losers in their most recent match against Gambit in a 1-2 result.
*No real recent data for individual performances over the last three months for C9 with their new group.
*Over the Last Month of Play for V.Pro (48 Maps): Jame 1.23 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.49 DPR, 1.10 IMP, 74.7 ADR. YEKINDAR 1.23 Rating, buster 1.16 Rating, quikert 1.16 Rating, SANJI 1.01 Rating.
*Obviously no head-to-head data to be found here either, and it wouldn’t matter with so many new faces for C9.
*Same goes for map data, we haven’t seen this new C9 group play any matches, so we don’t have a clue what their map pool is at the time.
Heroic (Ranked 2nd in World) @ North (Ranked 23rd in World):
Betting Odds: Heroic -275/North +200
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -140
*This is a Group B upper bracket quarter-final for the IEM Beijing-Haidian Europe region Event.
*North comes into this one on quite the streak, winning three of their last three in a row, as well as four of their last five total matches. Two coming sweep, two with a 2-1 result. Only loss was an 0-2 loss to Spirit. Heroic are fresh off a loss in their most recent match, an 0-2 loss to GODSENT, but had won their prior two matches before the loss.
*Heroic Over the Last Month of Play (35 Maps): cadiaN 1.22 Rating, stavn 1.22 Rating, TeSeS 1.17 Rating, niko 1.06 Rating, b0RUP 0.96 Rating.
*North Over the Last Month of Play (33 Maps): cajunb, 1.07 Rating, gade 1.07 Rating, aizy 1.07 Rating, MSL 1.06 Rating, lekr0 1.04 Rating.
*These two have played five total matches in 2020, with Heroic winning all five. North only won a single map out of the 12 played. The last three matches have seen Heroic sweep North 2-0. The only map that North were able to find a win on was Nuke 16-10 in the latest match played.
*North vs Heroic (10 Maps): Not a single player has a positive stat-line for the sample. Best line is Cajunb at -32 K-D Diff. yikes.
*Heroic vs North (10 Maps): TeSeS +58 K-D Diff, 1.57 K-D, 1.37 Rating. Stavn +48 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.23 Rating. Niko +38 K-D Diff, 1.38 K-D, 1.31 Rating.
*The first two ban maps include Dust2 and Mirage. Heroic typically go with Nuke as their first map choice, while North is going with Overpass mainly as their first pick.
*Heroic on Nuke (21 Maps): stavn 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 86.8 ADR. TeSeS 1.18 Rating, niko 1.14 Rating, cadiaN 1.09 Rating, b0RUP 0.97 Rating. On Overpass (12 Maps): niko 1.11 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 80.3 ADR. cadiaN 1.07 Rating, stavn 1.05 Rating, TeSeS 1.03 Rating, b0RUP 0.93 Rating.
*North on Overpass (13 Maps): aizy 1.10 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 77.6 ADR. MSL 1.08 Rating, gade 1.07 Rating, lekr0 1.07 Rating, cajunb 1.05 Rating. On Nuke (9 Maps): gade 1.17 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 79.9 ADR. Aizy 1.12 Rating, Lekr0 1.11 Rating, cajunb 1.09 Rating, MSL 0.99 Rating.
Vitality (Ranked 1st in World) @ MAD Lions (Ranked 31st in World):
Betting Odds: Vitality -275/MAD +200
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -140
*This is the Group A lower bracket semi-final for the IEM Beijing-Haidian Europe region. Winning advances to the playoffs quarter-finals.
*MAD have reeled off two straight wins, a sweep over Dignitas on Wednesday, and a 2-1 win over fnatic in their latter match. Vitality were just humbled nicely by FaZe in their most recent match catching a 0-2 loss but had won four of their prior matches before the loss.
*Vitality Over the Last Month of Play (29 Maps): ZywOo 1.30 Rating, shox 1.05 rating, misutaaa 1.01 Rating, apEX 1.00 Rating, RpK 0.98 Rating.
*MAD Over the Last Month of Play (21 Maps): acoR 1.30 Rating, refrezh 1.25 Rating, roeJ 1.12 Rating, sjuush 1.08 Rating, HooXi 0.99 Rating.
*There has been no recent head-to-head data for these two teams.
*The first bans for this match include Dust2 (which happens to be Vitality’s first map) and Train for Vitality. MAD is going with Nuke as their main first pick, and the secondary map for Vitality lately has been Inferno. I believe these are the two maps we see.
*Vitality on Inferno (11 Maps): ZywOo 1.36 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 87.7 ADR. RpK 1.02 Rating, misutaaa 1.01 Rating, apEX 0.95 Rating, shox 0.85 Rating. On Nuke (14 Maps): ZywOo 1.19 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 79.2 ADR. Shox 1.10 Rating, misutaaa 0.99 Rating, RpK 0.90 Rating, apEX 0.84 Rating. (*Note – shox was subbed out in their last match for Nivera on Inferno, so keep that in mind)
*MAD on Nuke (11 Maps): acoR 1.26 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 77.6 ADR. Refrezh 1.25 Rating, roeJ 1.21 Rating, sjuush 1.12 Rating, HooXi 1.01 Rating. On Inferno (3 Maps): acoR 1.34 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 88.2 ADR. Refrezh 1.22 Rating, sjuush 0.92 Rating, roeJ 0.90 Rating, HooXi 0.85 Rating.
OG (Ranked 6th in World) @ Gen.G (Ranked 30th in World):
Betting Odds: OG -555/Gen.G +360
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +150/Under -210
*OG have dropped two straight to both FaZe and Spirit in their most recent two matches played, while Gen.G hasn’t played a match since the 22nd of September in the ESL Pro League, a win over C9 2-0. Could see a bit of rust factor here with Gen.G. (Also, daps and s0m are now OUT for Gen.G and was replaced with kreaz and Xizt)
*Gen.G Over the Last Three Months of Play (19 Maps): koosta 1.11 Rating, kreaz 1.09 Rating, BnTeT 1.06 Rating, autimatic 0.98 Rating, Xizt 0.83 Rating.
*OG Over the Last Month of Play (30 Maps): mantuu 1.14 Rating, valde 1.09 Rating, ISSAA 1.06 Rating, Aleksib 1.05 Rating, NBK- 0.96 Rating.
*No head-to-head data to analyze between these two teams and wouldn’t matter with two new faces for Gen.G.
*Map data is also pretty scarce with Gen.G only playing maybe 5 maps over L3 months and two new faces. OG will likely go with Inferno, and Train has typically been the first map chosen for Gen.G in the past.
G2 (Ranked 10th in World) @ NiP (Ranked 11th in World):
Betting Odds: G2 -255/NiP +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*G2 has come on very strong with the addition of NiKo, winning two of their last three and three out of their last five. Huge win over Astralis in a 2-0 sweep in their last match as well. NiP have dropped three of their last five and were losers in their last match to NaVi 1-2.
*G2 Over the Last Month of Play (28 Maps): NiKo 1.23 Rating, huNter 1.19 Rating, AmaNEk 1.11 Rating, nexa 1.01 Rating, kennyS 0.94 Rating.
*NiP Over the Last Month of Play (26 Maps): REZ 1.08 Rating, nawwk 1.04 Rating, hampus 1.01 Rating, Plopski 0.98 Rating, twist 0.97 Rating.
*These two have yet to play in 2020, and both have new players on their team with NiKo and no Lekr0 for NiP.
*The two ban maps for this match will be Dust2 and Overpass. The two first maps likely chosen will be Vertigo for G2 and Train for NiP.
*G2 on Vertigo (12 Maps): huNter 1.15 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 83.9 ADR. AmaNEk 1.08 Rating, nexa 1.08 Rating, kennyS 1.04 Rating. On Train (5 Maps): NiKo 1.24 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 84.1 ADR. Nexa 1.11 Rating, huNter 1.10 Rating, kennyS 0.96 Rating, AmaNEk 0.96 Rating.
*NiP on Train (10 Maps): nawwk 1.10 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.03 IMP, 69.9 ADR. REZ 1.01 Rating, hampus 1.00 Rating, Plopski 0.95 Rating, twist 0.94 Rating. On Vertigo (4 Maps): hampus 1.23 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.48 IMP, 92.8 ADR. Twist 1.15 Rating, Plopski 1.10 Rating, REZ 0.92 Rating, nawwk 0.87 Rating.
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 8th in World) @ Rebirth (Ranked 54th in World):
Betting Odds: EG -2000/Rebirth +525
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +380/Under -620
*Both of these teams are fresh off a two-match losing skid recently. EG lost to NiP 0-2, and OG 1-2, while Rebirth lost to GGPR 1-2, and Secret Club 0-2. (Curry will not be playing in this one, it will be XotiC instead)
*Over the Last Month of Play for EG (11 Maps): Ethan 1.23 Rating, Brehze 1.14 Rating, CeRq 1.12 Rating, Stanislaw 0.97 Rating, Tarik 0.94 Rating.
*Over the Last Month of Play for Rebirth (30 Maps): 4pack 1.14 Rating, XotiC 1.02 Rating, phantom 1.02 Rating, nosraC 0.99 Rating, retchy 0.93 Rating.
*These two faced off once in 2020, with EG winning both maps convincingly 16-1 and 16-3 on Inferno and Train.
*Top Players for EG: Brehze +34 K-D Diff, 2.07 Rating, 110.3 ADR. Ethan +22 K-D Diff, 1.79 Rating, 107.1 ADR. CeRq +19 K-D Diff, 1.58 Rating, 75.3 ADR.
*No player for Rebirth had a line better than -17 K-D Diff.
*The first two ban maps for this match will be Vertigo and Mirage. Inferno has been the first pick for EG lately, while Rebirth will have to go with a secondary map (Mirage was first pick), which looks like it will be Train.
*EG on Inferno (16 Maps): Brehze 1.26 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 78.9 ADR. Ethan 1.25 Rating, Tarik 1.16 Rating, CeRq 1.14 Rating, Stanislaw 1.06 Rating. On Train (4 Maps): Brehze 1.53 Rating, 1.00 KPR, 1.42 IMP, 99.3 ADR. CeRq 1.36 Rating, Ethan 1.12 Rating, Stanislaw 1.10 Rating, Tarik 1.04 Rating.
Rebirth on Train (11 Maps): 4pack 1.18 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 84.6 ADR. Retchy 1.00 Rating, nosraC 0.98 Rating, Phantom 0.94 Rating. On Inferno (8 Maps): nosraC 1.02 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 77.6 ADR. 4pack 0.98 Rating, Phantom 0.98 Rating, retchy 0.82 Rating.
*TOP STACKS: EG, OG, Heroic (in Order)
*TOP PLAYS: NiKo, Brehze, Mantuu, valde, huNter, CeRq, stavn, TeSeS, acoR, ZywOo, Jame, YEKINDAR (not in order)
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: MAD Lions, NiP