Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO November 11
Sean Mitchell covers all three matches for Wednesday's CS:GO DFS slate with all the stats and map data, including his favorite stacks and plays for the slate!
CS:GO DFS Playbook 11-11-2020
Dignitas (Ranked 148th in World) @ MAD Lions (Ranked 31st in World):
Betting Odds: MAD -500/Dignitas +330
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +135/Under -180
*Dignitas hasn’t played a major Event since the 28th of October, so they have been on a bit of a break coming into this match. The last match they played, they were 2-0 swept in the Elisa Invitational 2 Event by Lyngby Vikings, their fifth loss in their five most recent matches played. MAD are playing their first round as we speak against BIG for this FlashPoint 2 Event. MAD have dropped back-to-back matches lately to NaVi and Wisla Krakow, both in a 1-2 result, but had won the three prior matches ahead of the two losses.
*For the Last Month of Play for MAD (16 Maps): acoR 1.33 Rating, refrezh 1.20 Rating, roeJ 1.12 Rating, sjuush 1.09 Rating, HooXi 0.95 Rating.
*For the Last 3 Months of Play for DIG (23 Maps): f0rest 1.11 Rating, hallzerk 1.10 Rating, H4RR3 1.03 Rating, friberg 0.95 Rating, HEAP 0.93 Rating.
*These two teams did play once in 2020, but both have new faces from when they played last. It was a best of one and MAD won 16-5 on Train. Sjuush (+12) and acoR (+8), along with roeJ (+7), led MAD in scoring, while friberg and f0rest both sported a (-5) for the best stat-lines of that map for DIG.
*The first bans for these two typically are Dust2 and Mirage. Both have been choosing Nuke as their first map, with 60% for DIG and 36% for MAD. Both winning Nuke at or above 60% over 10 tries apiece, as well. A secondary map for MAD would be Vertigo. I think we likely see Nuke and Vertigo for this match.
*DIG on Nuke (10 Maps): hallzerk 1.25 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 79.0 ADR. F0rest 1.21 Rating, friberg 1.04 Rating, HEAP 0.94 Rating, H4RR3 0.74 Rating. On Vertigo (5 Maps): hallzerk 1.13 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 85.4 ADR. F0rest 0.98 Rating, friberg 0.98 Rating, HEAP 0.97 Rating, H4RR3 0.88 Rating.
*MAD on Vertigo (6 Maps): acoR 1.51 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 1.50 IMP, 86.6 ADR. Sjuush 1.37 Rating, roeJ 1.33 Rating, refrezh 1.32 Rating, HooXi 0.99 Rating. On Nuke (10 Maps): acoR 1.28 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 78.1 ADR. Refrezh 1.25 Rating, roeJ 1.23 Rating, sjuush 1.09 Rating, HooXi 1.01 Rating.
Fnatic (Ranked 13th in World) @ c0ntact (Ranked 43rd in World):
Betting Odds: fnatic -400/C0ntact +275
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +125/Under -165
*C0ntact’s most recent match was a qualifier match that got them into the DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Europe Event and they won it 2-0 against Poland on Nov. 5th. This was their fourth win in a row and four of their last five matches played with their last three in a row coming via the 2-0 sweep. Fnatic will be looking to change their losing ways here as they have dropped four in a row and four of their last five with their last two losses being sweeps against them.
*Over the Last Month of Play for fnatic (24 Maps): Brollan 1.05 Rating, KRIMZ 1.04 Rating, flusha 1.00 Rating, JW 0.95 Rating, Golden 0.90 Rating.
*Over the Last Month of Play for C0ntact (33 Maps): ottoNd 1.08 Rating, EspiranTo 1.04 Rating, rigoN 1.01 Rating, Spinx 1.00 Rating, Snappi 0.99 Rating.
*These two played one best of three in June of 2020 at the cs_summit 6 Event and fnatic ended up winning 2-1. There were two players on C0ntact that are no longer playing for them, but we can point out the top performers for this match.
*For fnatic (3 Maps): KRIMZ +27 K-D diff, 1.45 Rating, 98.7 ADR. Brollan +24 K-D Diff, 1.41 Rating, 96.2 ADR. JW +17 K-D Diff, 1.29 Rating, 80.8 ADR.
*For C0ntact (3 Maps): ottoNd -1 K-D Diff, 0.98 Rating, 68.3 ADR. Snappi was 2nd best at -5 K-D Diff.
*The two first bans for these two include Overpass and Vertigo. C0ntact has been going with Mirage lately (winning 67% of last 15 there and 4-map win streak also), while fnatic continues to go with Inferno (winning 67% there of their last 18 tries). I think we see these two maps for this match.
*fnatic on Inferno (18 Maps): Brollan 1.12 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 74.8 ADR. KRIMZ 1.12 Rating (0.67 KPR), Golden 1.04 Rating, flusha 1.03 Rating, JW 1.01 Rating. On Mirage (8 Maps): Brollan 0.96 Rating, JW 0.93 Rating, KRIMZ 0.89 Rating, flusha 0.86 Rating, Golden 0.86 Rating.
*C0ntact on Mirage (12 Maps): rigoN 1.16 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 83.4 ADR. ottoNd 1.15 Rating, Spinx 1.05 Rating, EspiranTo 1.04 Rating, Snappi 0.88 Rating. On Inferno (6 Maps): rigoN 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 82.6 ADR. Spinx 1.13 Rating, EspiranTo 1.03 Rating, ottoNd 0.85 Rating, Snappi 0.76 Rating.
NaVi (Ranked 4th in World) @ Spirit (Ranked 18th in World):
Betting Odds: NaVi -160/Spirit +120
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
*This is Group A lower bracket Semi-Final with the winner going o to the playoff quarter-finals for the IEM Beijing-Haidian Europe region.
*Spirit took care of OG in just two maps on Monday to solidify their spot in this match after losing to 0-2 to Vitality in their upper bracket quarter-final match. NaVi beat MAD Lions 2-1, but then lost to Complexity 1-2 in which placed them in this match as well.
*For the Last Month of Play for NaVi (31 Maps): s1mpe 1.22 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 84.9 ADR. Electronic 1.03 Rating, Perfecto 1.01 Rating, flamie 1.00 Rating, Boombl4 0.98 Rating.
*for the Last Month of Play for Spirit (25 Maps): mir 1.29 Rating, magixx 1.20 Rating, iDISBALANCE 1.10 Rating, sdy 1.09 Rating, chopper 1.07 Rating.
These two have only played one match in recent memory and that was on the 28th of June for WePlay! Clutch Island Event where NaVi won both Dust2 and Mirage in a 2-0 sweep with a score of 16-9 on both.
*Top Players for NaVi vs Spirit (2 Maps): s1mple +14 K-D Diff, 133 Rating, 85.3 ADR. Perfecto +10 K-D Diff, 1.22 Rating, 80.2 ADR. Boombl4 +9 K-D Diff, 1.23 Rating, 84.6 ADR.
*Top Players for Spirit vs NaVi (2 Maps): iDISBALANCE +3 K-D Diff, 1.07 Rating, 59.8 ADR.
*Both are banning Vertigo with their first ban; secondary bans include Inferno and Mirage. First maps chosen lately is dust2 for both teams. Spirit chose Overpass in yesterday’s match and beat OG there as well, I think it would be smart of them to go back to it in this one. Think we see Dust2 and Overpass here.
*NaVi on Dust2 (12 Maps): s1mple 1.35 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.49 IMP, 91.5 ADR. Flamie 1.04 Rating, Perfecto 1.04 Rating, electronic 1.02 Rating, Boombl4 0.97 Rating. On Overpass (10 Maps): s1mple 1.10 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 80.0 ADR. Electronic 1.05 Rating, Boombl 1.02 Rating, Perfecto 1.01 Rating, flamie 0.89 Rating.
*Spirit on Overpass (9 Maps): mir 1.36 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 90.2 ADR. Magixx 1.11 Rating, iDISBALANCE 1.09 Rating, sdy 1.08 Rating, chopper 0.99. On Dust2 (15 Maps): iDISBALANCE 1.18 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 75.1 ADR. Mir 1.17 Rating, sdy 1.15 Rating, chopper 1.11 Rating, magixx 1.10 Rating.
*TOP STACKS: MAD, Spirit, NaVi
*TOP PLAYS FOR CPT: s1mple, mir, iDISBALANCE, rigoN, refrezh, acoR
*CONTRAIRAN STACKS: Spirit, C0ntact (in that order)