Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO October 24
Sean Mitchell details all the important statistics for team, individual, and map data for Saturday's three-match Dream Hack Open CS:GO slate!
We are rounding down both the upper and lower-bracket finals for the Dream Hack Open Fall 2020 Event and we have a four-match slate on tap for Saturday for those brackets. Let’s see what kind of interesting tid-bits we can reveal with the CS:GO DFS Playbook brought to you guys by Fantasy Alarm!
Heroic @ NiP:
Betting Odds: Heroic -160/NiP +125
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*Both of these teams come into this one in really good recent form with both on a three-match win streak, and both winning four of their previous five matches as well. Heroic got some revenge on BIG on Friday in a 2-1 result, while NiP handed fnatic a loss as well with a 2-1 result of their own. This match is the lower-bracket final as well.
*For the Event for Heroic: stavn 1.22 Rating, cadiaN 1.20 Rating, TeSeS 1.17 Rating, niko 1.08 Rating, b0RUP 0.94 Rating.
*For the Event for NiP: REZ 1.12 Rating, nawwk 1.12 Rating, hampus 1.02 Rating, twist 0.99 Rating, Plopski 0.99 Rating.
*These two teams have played just one time in 2020 so far and it was at the cs_summit 6 Europe tournament. The match went the full three-maps as well.
*The top performers for this match included from Heroic: niko 66-53 K-D, 20 total assists (led team) 1.26 Rating, 90.2 ADR. TeSeS next best 59-56 K-D, 1.05 Rating, 77.6 ADR. (Note: cadiaN went 46-52, but had 19 assists)
*For NiP: REZ went 61-56 K-D, 10 Assists, 1.16 Rating, 87.3 ADR. Twist was next with 51-49 K-D, 24 Assists (led team by a lot), 1.07 Rating, 70.6 ADR.
*Worth noting that both Heroic and NiP banned both team’s typical first map choices of Nuke and Overpass in their lone head-to-head stated above. In doing so, this put that match on Mirage and Vertigo with Dust2 being the decider. Heroic went with Vertigo and pretty much torched NiP 16-6, while NiP barely edged out Mirage 16-13. Heroic has played Mirage quite a bit more lately, and quite a bit more than NiP as well lately. The only wrench I could see thrown here is if NiP decide to throw a curve with Train. It is a map they have played well on lately, winning 75% of their last eight attempts, however, Heroic is no slouch there either winning 60% of their last 10 tries. I think there is a good chance we see Mirage and Vertigo again.
*For NiP on Mirage (9 Maps L3 Months): nawwk 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.18 Imp, 74.0 ADR. REZ 1.13 Rating, hampus 1.09 Rating, Plopski 1.09 Rating, twist 1.0 Rating. On Vertigo (3 maps L3 Months): hampus 1.14 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 86.7 ADR. Both twist and Plopski 1.05 Rating, REZ 0.91, nawwk 0.84. Don’t be too critical here, very small sample.
*For Heroic on Vertigo (15 Maps L3 Months): TeSeS 1.16 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 85.2 ADR. Stavn 1.11 Rating, cadiaN 1.05 Rating, niko 1.04 Rating, b0RUP 0.97. On Mirage (15 Maps L3 Months): stavn 1.14 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 76.4 ADR. cadiaN 1.13 Rating, niko 1.10 Rating, TeSeS 1.08 Rating, b0RUP 0.93 Rating.
BIG @ fnatic:
Betting Odds: BIG -135/fnatic +105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -120
*Both of these teams took losses in their most recent matches, thus placing them here in the 5th place deciding match. Both teams have lost back-to-back matches leading up to this one as well, even though it is a decider match there is still $1k more in prize money for finishing 5th compared to sixth in this event.
*For the Event for BIG: XANTARES 1.25 Rating, syrsoN 1.12 Rating, tiziaN 0.98 Rating, K1to 0.88 Rating, tabseN 0.81 Rating.
*For the Event for fnatic: flusha 1.10 Rating, Brollan 1.10 Rating, KRIMZ 1.05 Rating, JW 1.01 Rating, Golden 0.95 Rating.
* These two teams have played twice so far in 2020, with BIG winning four of the maps out of the five played. In the ESL Pro League Season 11, BIG won a 2-1 result, and afterwards they played more recently in the cs_summit 6 tournament as well where BIG swept them 2-0. So, you could say there is also a bit of a revenge factor here for fnatic.
*Top Performers for BIG vs fnatic (5 Maps): tabseN +20 K-D diff, 1.25 K-D, 1.23 Rating (maybe time for slump-buster?), XANTARES +13 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.14 Rating, syrsoN +11 K-D diff, 1.13 K-D, 1.13 Rating.
*Top Performers for fnatic vs BIG (5 Maps): Brollan +26 K-D diff, 1.29 K-D, 1.25 Rating, KRIMZ +6 K-D diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.14 Rating.
*Their two matches played in 2020 saw Overpass both times. Also, Nuke, Mirage, and Inferno. We know fnatic has been going with Inferno a ton lately. Dust2 has been the popular choice for BIG lately and is the most chosen. I don’t see any reason why we don’t see these two maps for this match.
*For BIG on Dust2 (12 Maps L3 Months): syrsoN 1.20 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 74.6 ADR. XANTARES 1.13 Rating, tabseN 1.05 Rating, K1to 1.00 Rating, tiziaN 0.97 Rating. For Inferno (12 Maps L3 Months): XANTARES 1.06 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.93 IMP, 75.5 ADR. syrsoN 1.03 Rating, tiziaN 1.00 rating, tabseN 0.95 Rating, K1to 0.95 Rating.
*For fnatic on Inferno (16 Maps L3 Months): Brollan 1.14 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 75.1 ADR, KRIMZ 1.13 Rating, Golden 1.08 Rating, flusha 1.07 Rating, JW 1.04 Rating. On Dust2 (20 Maps L3 Months): Brollan 1.12 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 75.2 ADR, KRIMZ 1.11 Rating, Golden 1.06 Rating, flusha 1.05 Rating, JW 1.03 Rating.
Sprout @ OG:
Betting Odds: OG -160/Sprout +120
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*Both of these teams have alternated wins and losses over their last five prior matches and are both fresh off a loss placing them here in the 7th place decider match. Heroic beat Sprout 1-2, while OG lost to NiP in a sweep in their most recent match.
*For the Event for Sprout: faveN 1.10 Rating, dycha 1.10 Rating, snatchie 1.05 Rating, denis 0.93 Rating, Spiidi 0.89 Rating.
*For the Event for OG: ISSAA 1.19 Rating, mantuu 1.10 Rating, valde 1.08 Rating, Aleksib 1.08 Rating, NBK- 0.94 Rating.
*These two teams have played two times in 2020, and both of those matches went the full three-map distance. They split those matches as well with Sprout winning the most recent 2-1 at the ESL One Cologne 2020 Event.
*Top Performers for Sprout vs OG (6 Maps): faveN +19 K-D diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.19 Rating, snatchie +6 K-D diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.02 Rating.
*Top Performers for OG vs Sprout (6 Maps): mantuu +28 K-D diff, 1.33 K-D, 1.17 Rating, valde +18 K-D diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.19 Rating.
*In the two head-to-heads this year, Nuke and Train showed up twice. I do think we could see Nuke be chosen by Sprout, as they have won over 90% of their last 13 played there, while I think we will see Inferno for OG as it is their best map lately.
*For Sprout on Nuke (13 Maps L3 Months): dycha 1.25 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 85.6 ADR, faveN 1.24 Rating, snatchie 1.15 Rating, denis 1.08 Rating, Spiidi 1.05 Rating. On Inferno (13 Maps L3 Months): dycha 1.14 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 81.7 ADR, faveN 1.07 Rating, Spiidi 1.05 Rating, snatchie 1.03 Rating, denis 1.00 Rating.
*For OG on Inferno (15 Maps L3 Months): ISSAA 1.17 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 76.8 ADR, valde 1.15 Rating, NBK- 1.14 Rating, mantuu 1.10 Rating, Aleksib 0.89 Rating. On Nuke (15 Maps L3 Months): ISSAA 1.17 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 79.3 ADR, Aleksib 1.13 Rating, mantuu 1.08 Rating, valde 1.02 Rating, NBK- 0.86 Rating.
TOP CHALK STACKS (Ranked in Order): OG, fnatic, Heroic
TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (Ranked in Order): NiP, Sprout, BIG
TOP CPT PICKS:
OG – ISSAA, valde (Mantuu always a decent play for upside depending on price)
Fnatic: Brollan, KRIMZ
Heroic: stavn, TeSeS (niko is getting warm, nice value likely)
NiP: nawwk, REZ (twist played well against them lone time and maps favor AWP)
Sprout: faveN, dycha
BIG: XANTARES, syrsoN (tabseN likely going to break-out soon)