DreamHack 3-Match CS:GO DFS Playbook 10.21.2020

Astralis @ fnatic

Odds: Astralis -285/fnatic +220

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +106/Under -141

*Astralis has been on an absolute tear lately winning all five of their prior five matches with a sweep over GODSENT in their most recent match in the Dream Hack Event. There have won three-straight to start this tournament. Fnatic have won back-to-back matches of their own and have secured three wins in their last four matches. They toppled North in a 2-0 sweep in their most recent match, and now sit with two wins and two losses for this Event.

*For the Event – Astralis: dupreeh 1.20 Rating, device 1.08 Rating, es3tag 1.06 Rating, Magisk 1.06 Rating, gla1ve 1.05 Rating.

*For the Event – fnatic: flusha 1.13 Rating, KRIMZ 1.10 Rating, Brollan 1.09 Rating, JW 1.03 Rating, Golden 0.94 Rating.

*These two teams have played four matches recently in 2020, with Astralis winning the last two and fnatic winning the latter two. Three of the four matches went all three maps as well.

*For Astralis vs Fnatic (Last Five Maps) – Magisk +14 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.19 Rating, dupreeh +12 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.16 Rating, device +12 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.22 Rating.

*For fnatic vs Astralis (Last Five Maps) – Brollan +20 K-D Diff, 1.22 K-D, 1.16 Rating. Only positive stat-line for the sample.

MAPS:

*It is a highly likely chance that we see Inferno from fnatic, and Astralis likely goes with Nuke. At the same time, it wouldn’t surprise me to see fnatic play one of their home maps either in Train over Inferno, simply because Astralis track-record on Inferno much better lately compared to Train. Train has been included in three of their four matches played, while Inferno has also shown up three times, and Nuke has as well. With fnatic winning two of the three trips these two squads made to Inferno, I think we see it for them.

*Fnatic on Inferno (14 Maps): Brollan 1.14 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.17 Rating, 74.4 ADR. KRIMZ 1.14 Rating (0.68 KPR), Golden 1.08 Rating, JW 1.07 Rating, flusha 1.05 Rating. On Nuke (7 Maps): Brollan 1.01 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 74 ADR. That’s all above a 1.0 Rating for Nuke.

*Astralis on Nuke (14 Maps): es3tag  1.22 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 77.4 ADR. Device 1.19 Rating, dupreeh 1.18 Rating, gla1ve 1.17 Rating, Magisk 1.07 Rating. On Inferno (22 Maps) dupreeh 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 77.7 ADR, es3tag 1.16 Rating, (0.69 KPR), device 1.14 Rating, gla1ve 1.12 Rating, Magisk 1.08 Rating.

 

OG @ G2

Odds: OG -122/G2 -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -102/Under-130

*Both of these teams are fresh off losses here in the DH event, and both have lost two of their last three. OG secured a 2-0 sweep over Mousesports two matches ago while G2 beat their foe in Heroic in a 2-1 result two matches ago as well.

*For the Event for OG: ISSAA 1.20 Rating, mantuu 1.17 Rating, valde 1.14 Rating, Aleksib 1.04 Rating, NBK- 0.96 Rating.

*For the Event for G2: -huNter 1.20 Rating, kennyS 1.15 Rating, AmaNEk 1.02 Rating, nexa 0.98 Rating, JaCkz 0.88 Rating.

*These two teams have faced off four total times recently here in 2020, with three of the four matches going the full distance of three maps and G2 securing three of the four wins over that span as well. The only win OG has in that span is a 2-0 sweep three matches prior.

*OG vs G2 (Last 6 Maps): mantuu +18 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.10 Rating, Aleksib +18 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.17 Rating, valde +1 K-D diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

*G2 vs OG (Last 6 Maps): nexa +4 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.09 Rating, kennyS +2 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.02 Rating.

MAPS:

*Dust2 has been the only map to show up three times out of their last four matches played, with Mirage, Nuke, and Inferno making showings for two apiece.

*The bans have been the same for their prior four matches – Vertigo and Overpass.

*OG likely goes with Inferno once again and I think we see G2 go with Nuke, as it just makes sense seeing as how G2 has beaten OG on this map the last two times it has been included in the maps.

*OG on Inferno (15 Maps): ISSAA 1.17 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 76.8 ADR. Valde 1.15 Rating, NBK- 1.14 Rating, mantuu 1.10 Rating, Aleksib 0.89 Rating. On Nuke (13 Maps) Aleksib 1.16 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 82.3 ADR. ISSAA 1.15 Rating, mantuu 1.12 Rating, valde 1.05 Rating, NBK- 0.87 Rating

*G2 on Nuke (7 Maps) nexa 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 84.5 ADR. -huNter 1.03 Rating, JaCkz 1.02 Rating, AmaNEk 1.01 Rating, kennyS 0.96 Rating. On Inferno (10 Maps) -huNter 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 84.4 ADR. Nexa 1.17 Rating, kennyS 1.05 Rating, AmaNEk 0.98 Rating, JaCkz 0.92 Rating.

 

FaZe @ NiP

Odds: FaZe -155/NiP +115

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*NiP actually comes into this one with the better recent form as they have won two of their last three matches before being dealt a loss in their more recent match against Vitality on Tuesday. They were victors in their prior two matches however against both Sprout (2-1) and ENCE (2-0). FaZe are losers of their last two of three, with their only win coming against sAq with a 2-1 result. They were best by BIG (0-2) and GODSENT (1-2) in the two losses mentioned.

*For the Event for FaZe: NiKo 1.15 Rating, broky 1.08 Rating, Kjaerbye 1.00 Rating, coldzera 0.97 Rating, rain 0.96 Rating.

*For the Event for NiP: nawwk 1.13 Rating, hampus 1.00 Rating, REZ 0.99 Rating, twist 0.96 Rating, Plopski 0.92 Rating.

*These two teams have played four times in recent memory, with FaZe winning all four matches to date. Two of these were by the 2-0 sweep. So, you could say that NiP has some if not a lot of narrative for the revenge game. Two of the four matches also did go three-maps as well.

*FaZe vs NiP (8 Maps): NiKo +46 K-D Diff, 1.29 K-D, 1.26 Rating, broky +12 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.03 Rating.

*NiP vs FaZe (8 Maps): nawwk +9 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.11 Rating, twist +8 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.02 Rating.

Maps:

*The last four matches between these two have seen Mirage all four times, Train twice, Overpass twice, and Train twice.

*Only two map wins for NiP in those four matches was on Overpass and Mirage.

*I think it is highly likely that we see Mirage again for FaZe, and I think NiP will likely go with Train, as it has been a good map to them lately with a success rate of 71% over their last seven tries, their best of any map.

*FaZe on Mirage (10 Maps): NiKo 1.12 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 82.7 ADR. Broky 1.09 Rating, rain 1.06 Rating, Kjaerbye 1.06 Rating, coldzera 0.90 Rating. On Train (4 Maps): rain 1.11 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.11 IMP, 80.6 ADR. NiKo 1.09 Rating, broky 1.04 Rating, Kjaerbye 0.96 Rating, coldzera 0.95 Rating.

*NiP on Train (7 Maps): hampus 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 78 ADR. REZ 1.06 Rating, nawwk 1.05 Rating, twist 1.03 Rating, Plopski 1.00 Rating. On Mirage (9 Maps) nawwk 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 74.9 ADR. REZ 1.13 Rating, hampus 1.09 Rating, Plopski 1.09 Rating, twist 1.00 Rating.

CHALK STACKS: Astralis, FaZe, G2

CONTRARIAN STACKS: fnatic, NiP, North

TOP CAPT PICKS:

Astralis: es3tag, dupreeh

FaZe: NiKo, broky

G2: -huNter, nexa

Fantic: flusha, KRIMZ

NiP: nawwk, hampus

OG: mantuu, ISSAA (Aleksib sneaky)