Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO October 20
Sean Mitchell brings you all the important statistical data for Tuesday's three-match DreamHack CS:GO DFS slate with the Playbook!
Playbook: CS:GO Three-Match DreamHack Slate 10.20.2020
Vitality @ NiP
Odds: Vitality -220/ NiP +165
Maps Odds: 2.5 Over +103/Under -135
*Vitality comes into this one only losing one of their last five matches, and that being against FaZe in an 0-2 loss. NiP are winners of their last two-straight beating both ENCE (2-0) and Sprout 2-1 in their most recent match for DH.
*For the Event: Vitality – ZywOo 1.51 Rating, RpK 1.13 Rating, misutaaa 1.06 Rating, apEX 0.99 Rating, shox 0.92 Rating.
*For Event: NiP – nawwk 1.23 Rating, twist 1.02 Rating, REZ 1.02 Rating, hampus 0.98 Rating, Plopski 0.96 Rating
*These two have played four times recently in 2020, Vitality has won three of the last four played with two 2-0 sweeps and one 2-1 win as well. NiP won the latest match and the fourth of the series in a 2-1 win. Their most recent match went three-full maps at the ESL Pro League Season 12 Europe.
*Over the L3 months, these two have played 5 maps
- Vitality Top Performers: ZywOo +47 K-D diff, 1.73 K-D, and 1.45 Rating, shox +15 K-D diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.20 Rating, both misutaaa and RpK sit with around +3 and +4 K-D diff for the sample as well.
-NiP Top Performers: REZ +1 K-D diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.05 Rating; only positive stat-line for NiP for sample.
*Not exactly 100% sure why NiP has allowed Vitality to select Dust2 in their last three of three matches, however they have, and Vitality has punished them on it every time. However, NiP has been banning Dust2 75% of the time over their last three months of play, so let’s hope they continue that trend.
*I believe if they do go with that ban, I think we see Vitality likely go with Nuke (NiP 6-map losing streak there as well), and I think we see NiP go with Mirage, as it is a map they have played well on, played more of lately, and have a slight success rate edge on lately as well.
*For Vitality on Nuke (8 maps): ZywOo 1.14 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.19 IMP, 78.2 ADR. Shox 1.03 Rating, misutaaa 1.00 Rating. On Mirage (7 maps): ZywOo 1.42 Rating, 0.95 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.75 IMP, 94.6 ADR. apEX 1.01 Rating.
*For NiP on Mirage (7 maps): nawwk 1.30 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 0.54 DPR, 1.27 IMP, 78.6 ADR. REZ 1.13 Rating, hampus 1.09 Rating, Plop 1.08 Rating, twist 1.04 Rating. On Nuke (7 maps): REZ 1.08 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 75 ADR. Nawwk 1.07 Rating, Plopski 1.04 Rating.
Sprout @ GODSENT
Odds: GODSENT -116/Sprout -111
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -141 – NOTE: Odd that these two teams are so close on money-line, yet map odds are favoring a sweep??
*Sprout is fresh off a two-match losing streak to both NiP and North with both finishing at 1-2 results. GODSENT was sent home with a sweep of their won, as Astralis took care of business quickly with them on Monday. GODSENT has a bit of a small edge in terms of recent form, as they have won two of their last five, beating FaZe 2-1 and sAw 2-0. Sprout did down NiP 2-0 in their DH opener however, but since have dropped those two straight, one being the rubber match with NiP.
*For the Event – Sprout: dycha 1.08 Rating, snatchie 1.07 Rating, faveN 1.07 Rating, denis 1.00 Rating, spiidi 0.96 Rating.
*For the Event – GODSENT: Maden 1.14 Rating, Farlig 1.06 Rating, zehN 1.00 Rating, STYKO 1.00 Rating, kRYSTAL 0.80 Rating.
*These two teams have no prior head-to-head data.
*Over Last Month of play for Sprout (34 Maps): dycha 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 85.7 ADR. faveN 1.16 Rating, denis 1.09 Rating, spiidi 1.08 Raitng, snatchie 1.08 Rating.
*Over Last Momht of play for GODSENT (23 Maps): zehN 1.14 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.08 IMP, 80.4 ADR. Maden 1.07 Rating, STYKO 1.05 Rating, Farlig 1.05 Rating, kRYSTAL 0.88 Rating.
*Odds are we see Nuke for GODSENT, and Sprout will have to choose a secondary map as their typical first one of Mirage will be banned. I think we see Sprout likely go with Dust2. I think both teams could easily win their map choice here as GODSENT was able to beat FaZe on Nuke and won 10 rounds on it against Astralis as well. Sprout does have an 11-map win streak going on Nuke, but it wasn’t all top-tier competition. Sprout does hold a 70% success rate advantage to just 33% for GODSENT on Dust2.
*Sprout on Dust2 (16 Maps): dycha 1.18 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 80.6 ADR. Snatchie 1.16 Rating, faveN 1.16 Rating, denis 1.08 Rating, Spiidi 1.02 Rating. On Nuke (11 Maps): faveN 1.29 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 84.1 ADR. Dycha 1.24 Rating, snatchie 1.17 Rating, denis 1.13 Rating, SPiidi 1.09 Rating.
*GODSENT on Nuke (15 Maps): zehN 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 83 ADR. STYKO 1.16 Rating, Farlig 1.15 Rating, Maden 1.05 Rating. On Dust2 (three Maps): zehN 1.12 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 77.0 ADR. No one else sits above a 0.97 (Maden).
Heroic @ North
Odds: Heroic -415/ North +285
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +127/Under -170
*Both teams come into this one in decently rough form, but it is North looking the better of the two lately as they have won two of their last three matches including 2-1 wins over ENCE and Sprout before losing 0-2 at the hands of fnatic on Monday. Heroic have only one win to their name in their last five and that is over Endpoint. Losses to G2, Astralis, and BIG by 1-2 results, and swept by FaZe 0-2 in that span as well.
*For the Event – Heroic: cadiaN 1.23 Rating, stavn 1.14 Rating, TeSeS 1.10 Rating, niko 1.01 Rating, b0RUP 0.92 Rating.
*For the Event – North: Gade 1.12 Rating, MSL 1.08 Rating, cajunb 1.06 Rating, Lekr0 1.05 Rating, aizy 0.98 Rating.
*These two have played a total of three best of three series and one best of one match so far in 2020. Heroic holds a 9-map win to 1 loss edge over North for this span.
*Top Performers H2H for (8 maps) – Heroic: niko +39 K-D diff, 1.65 K-D, 1.43 Rating, stavn +38 K-D diff, 1.32 K-D, 1.25 Rating, TeSeS +33 K-D Diff, 1.53 K-D, 1.32 Rating, cadiaN +33 K-D diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.21 Rating, and b0RUP +10 K-D diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.08 Rating.
*Top Performers H2H for (8 maps) – North: As you could expect, no positive stat-lines, and no one better than -37 K-D Diff. Yikes.
*We are looking pretty safe to see Nuke and Vertigo for this match, and I have to say they both favor Heroic.
*Heroic on Nuke (14 Maps): TeSeS 1.18 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 82.8 ADR. Niko 1.12 Rating, stavn 1.12 Rating, cadiaN 1.03 Rating, b0RUP 1.02 Rating. On Vertigo (13 Maps): TeSeS 1.12 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 82.3 ADR. Stavn 1.07 Rating, cadiaN 1.04 Rating, niko 1.01 Rating.
*North on Vertigo (8 Maps): aizy 1.31 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.55 IMP, 89.6 ADR. Gade 1.15 Rating, Cajunb 1.14 Rating, Lekr0 1.11 Rating, MSL 1.08 Rating. On Nuke (Four Maps): Lekr0 1.13 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 74.2 ADR. Aizy 1.09 Rating, cajunb 1.07 Rating.
TOP CHALK: Vitality, Heroic
TOP CONTRARIAN: North, NiP, Sprout
TOP CPT PLAYS (Teams Not Ranked in Any Order):
Vitality – ZywOo, shox (NiP Killer)
Heroic: TeSeS, stavn, cadiaN
NiP: nawwk, REZ
North: aizy, Lekr0
GODSENT: Farlig, zehN
Sprout: dycha, faveN