Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO October 12
Sean Mitchells pores over all of the statistical data to help you build the top DFS lineups for today's two-match CS:GO Tribo To Major Event Slate with the Playbook!
Welcome back to another CS:GO DFS Playbook brought to you by the good guys over at Fantasy Alarm! We have a two-match slate in the Tribo to Majors 2020 Event today, and it is a lower-tier event, however we still have some decent contests on the slate for it, so we will cover it! Enjoy!
Isurus (Ranked 82nd in World) vs RED Canids (Ranked 81st)
In our first best of three match of the day, we have a third-place deciding match between two familiar foes in the lower-tier scene with Isurus and the RED Canids. However, we do have a couple of new faces for each team presently. The Canids added KHTEX and heat, while Isurus brought in caike and JonY BoY. The current betting odds for this match are listing Isurus as the favorite with a money line of -141 in their favor. The books are also sitting the Maps Over 2.5 at +108, while the Under 2.5 Maps is juiced a smidge to -143, somewhat thinking this could be an Isurus sweep. The recent form for both of these teams is one of opposite spectrums, as the RED Canids have been on a four-match skid, while three of those losses have come via the 0-2 sweep. Isurus was a loser in their most recent match but had won three-straight prior to that loss. Both teams are looking at getting back in the win column here in this match, not to mention advancing on in this tournament as well. These two teams have played lots recently, and interestingly enough both have a 10-map win margin for each team, but it is Isurus who have won the last three of four matches played. Since we do have some head-to-head data, let’s see who the top players were in those matches. For Isurus, it is JonY BoY at the top, however it is worth mentioning he has only played three maps against RED since joining Isurus, but he sits with a +39 K-D Diff, 1.57 K-D, and 1.44 Rating on the short sample. Next, it is the other new-comer in caike with a +15 K-D diff, 1.11 K-D, and a 1.06 Rating in a seven-map sample. They are the only two to have positive stat-lines but note the smaller sample sizes. For the Canids, it is latto with the best stat-line with a +53 K-D DIff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.16 Rating. He is followed by nython with a +43 K-D diff, 1.11 K-D, and 1.13 Rating. DeStInY comes in next with a +38 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, and 1.10 Rating. To get a better grasp of how these teams have played lately, let’s take a look at their last month of performances from best to worst. For Isurus (21 maps) it is JonY Boy at the top spot for this sample with a 1.05 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 72.1 ADR. Decov is next at 1.01, reversive at 0.93, Noktse at 0.92, and lastly, caike at 0.89. For RED (15 maps) nython leads the charge with a 1.11 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.15 IMP, and 79.7 ADR. Latto is next at 1.10, DeStiNy at 0.95, and KHTEX at 0.95, and heat rounds it out at 0.96. Let’s see what kind of maps pop up for this one.
The first two ban maps for these two teams lately include Inferno for RED (which just so happens to be Isurus typical first map chosen lately), and Vertigo for Isurus. RED has been going with Train mostly lately, and it has consumed 55% of their last first map choices over the last three months. They also hold a 60% success rate there over their last five attempts, while Isurus has only played it three times and did not secure a win on any of those tries. There are two maps that Isurus have been choosing behind Inferno as it will be banned in this one, and those two are Nuke (19%) and Overpass (15%). However, Nuke has been a bad map for them lately, as they have lost six-straight there, while RED has won five of their last five there. Now, on Overpass, Isurus holds a 75% success rate in their last eight attempts, while RED has only played it twice lately and split those two attempts. So, we could easily see this match turn into Train and Overpass in my opinion. Let’s see the top players for each projected map picks. For Isurus on their projected map choice of Overpass (eight map sample; JonY BoY has only played four) it is JonY Boy at the lead but has played half the maps as the rest to note, but he sits at 1.30 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.35 IMP, and 87.2 ADR. Reversive is next at 1.16, caike at 1.09, Notkse at 1.05, and lastly, decov at 1.00. For Train (three maps) not a single option sits over a 0.84 (Caike) for this map. For RED on their projected map choice of Train (five maps) latto is the lead here with a 1.16 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 77.3 ADR. KHTEX is on his heels next at 1.15, heat at 1.09, DeStiNy at 1.04, and nython at 1.01. For Overpass (2 maps) nython in the top spot for the small sample with 1.27 Rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.47 IMP, and 88.0 ADR. KHTEX next at 1.25, latto at 1.05, heat at 0.96, and lastly, DeStiNy at 0.92 to round it out. I honestly think the only reason Isurus is favored here is due to the recent head-to-head history, but it seems that RED has the better overall performances lately as a team, and their numbers are quite better to be honest. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: nython – (Leads the team over the last three months in overall numbers, rates out well on both maps)
Top Stacking Options: nython, KHTEX, latto (DeStiNy value)
ANCHOR: JonY BoY – (Seems to be their carry now, and his small sample numbers lately are very good)
Top Stacking Options: JonY BoY, Decov, Reversive (caike value)
Sharks (Ranked 23rd in World) vs BOOM (Ranked 52nd In World)
The second best of three on today’s slate is the Grand Final for the South American Region of this Event between Sharks and BOOM. However, it is only a best of three format, instead of a best of five like Grand Finals typically tend to be. Looking at the current betting odds, BOOM is a -500 favorite on the money line to win this match. The Under 2.5 Maps is also juiced way up to -215, so books expecting a pretty easy clean sweep here for BOOM. This is a really interesting match, as this is also a pretty big revenge spot here for the Sharks, as they were beat in this same tournament already by BOOM by a 2-0 sweep with results of 16-4 on Mirage and 16-5 on Vertigo. These two teams have played three matches so far in 2020, with BOOM sweeping the last two matches, and the Sharks winning their first meeting at the ESL Pro League, before BOOM beat them 3-0 in the Grand Final of the ESL Pro League for the South America Region. Since we do have some head-to-head map data, let’s see who the top players were for this sample. As you likely could imagine, Sharks have no players with positive stat-lines for this sample. For BOOM, the top player against Sharks has been yel, as he sits with a +39 K-D Diff, 1.36 K-D, and 1.26 Rating for an eight-map sample. Next, its felps with a +31 K-D Diff, and then its shz with a +19 for the top-three performers for the sample. To get a better grasp on top performers lately, for Sharks over last month (26 maps) it is exit at 1.22 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 81.5 ADR. Luken sits at 1.17, leo_druNky at 1.07, jnt at 1.02, and supLex at 1.00. For BOOM (23 maps) boltz has been the top player for this sample at 1.30 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 87.5 ADR. Felps follows at 1.27, chelo at 1.22, yel at 1.20, and shz at 1.18. Let’s look at some projected maps.
The first two ban maps lately have been Nuke for BOOM and Overpass for Sharks. Nuke just so happened to be the typical first map chosen for Sharks as well, so we can throw that one out. BOOM has been going with Vertigo as their typical first pick lately and have an 8-map winning streak going there as well. The secondary map pick for Sharks lately has been Dust2 at a 25% clip. They have also won 80% of their last five attempts there, but BOOM has also won roughly 70% of their last seven tries there. The last two of three times these two played, Dust2 and Vertigo were included, so I think it is pretty safe to say we see these as well in this one. Let’s talk performers for each. For Sharks on their projected map choice of Dust2 (Five maps) it is Luken at the top for this sample with a 1.25 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 85.5 ADR. Leo is next at 1.18, then its jnt at 1.17, exit at 1.06, and lastly, supLex at 0.99. For Vertigo (three maps) it is exit in the lead with a 1.23 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 98.3 ADR. No other options sit above a 0.82 here (supLex). For BOOM on their projected map of Vertigo (six maps) felps is the lead barley with a 1.36 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.43 IMP, and 88.3 ADR. He is followed very closely by boltz at 1.35, shz at 1.20, chelo at 1.23, and yel at 1.19. For Dust2 (five maps) it is boltz in the lead here for this sample with a 1.23 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 85.7 ADR. Felps is next at 1.19, yel at 1.18, chelo and shz both at 1.11 to round it out. I think this is pretty clear-cut here, and I believe the Sharks will have to find a win on Dust2 to have a chance at competing in this one. BOOM should likely take Vertigo pretty easily, as it is a map they have just dominated on lately. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Luken – (Going contrarian with CPT if going Sharks in GPPs, which they will be the leverage in my opinion)
Top Stacking Options: Luken, exit, leo_druNky
ANCHOR: boltz – (Dudes been balling lately if you couldn’t tell)
Top Stacking Options: boltz, felps, yel
TOP STACKS: BOOM (Chalk), RED Canids
Top Plays: boltz, felps, yel, nython, latto
Top Contrarian Plays: Sharks – exit, Luken, Leo
Isurus – JonY BoY (chalk), Decov