Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO October 1
Sean Mitchell brings you all you need for Thursday's CS:GO DFS ESL Pro League three-match slate with the playbook!
Welcome back to another CS:GO DFS ESL Pro League Season 12 Playbook by yours truly! Hopefully you guys are enjoying the new layout of the playbook, as I think it will continue to be the format I go with for the foreseeable future. I am always open to suggestions/recommendations on innovating my writing, so don’t hesitate to shoot me a message with any thoughts! We have another three-match slate as the playoffs have fully kicked-off, so let’s dive in!
Spirit (Ranked 19th in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 9th in World)
Our first match of the day for this Thursday is one out of the lower-bracket for round 1, as both of these teams were losers in their most recent matches sending them down to the lower bracket to face each other here today. Looking at the current betting odds, it seems the books are expecting quite a big bounce-back from Astralis, who were absolutely taken out to the woodshed by Heroic yesterday in a massive 0-2 reverse sweep. However, books have rolled out Astralis as -400 favorites on the money line to win this match. Prior to the Heroic loss for Astralis, they had been on cruise-control with four straight winning matches, while Spirit have found themselves on a two-match skid over their last two matches and could also be a factor into why Astralis is such a large favorite in this match. We do have two head-to-head matches for these two squads recently, both in the ESL Pro Leagues for both seasons 11 and 12. Since we do have this, we can look at the averages for each team over these head-to-heads.
ASTRALIS (Averages for Core vs Spirit L2 Head-to-Heads):
- Device – 46 Kills, 3 Assists, 27 Deaths, +10 FK +/-
- Gla1ve – 37 Kills, 15 Assists, 25 Deaths, +1 FK +/-
- Dupreeh – 34 Kills, 11 Assists, 25 Deaths, -4 FK +/-
- Magisk – 30 Kills, 10 Assists, 29 Deaths, 0 FK +/-
SPIRIT (Averages vs Astralis L2 Head-to-Heads):
- Sdy – 32 Kills, 5 Assists, 34 Deaths, 0 FK +/-
- Mir – 28 Kills, 7 Assists, 39 Deaths, -3 FK +/-
- iDISBALANCE – 25 Kills, 6 Assists, 34 Deaths, -7 FK +/-
- Magixx – 23 Kills, 5 Assists, 39 Deaths, -6 FK +/-
- Chopper – 23 Kills, 6 Assists, 39 Deaths, -7 FK +/-
CAPTAIN’S CORNER (2 CAPT Picks From Match):
1.) Device (Astralis) –
Device is still the top guy on this team, and we saw Spirit get absolutely wrecked by the AWP of poizon in their loss to Complexity. I do think we see a totally different team in Astralis for this match after the embarrassing loss they took against Heroic. Device could lead the server today if he gets hot, and he is determined to get a win. He leads the team by a good margin in average kills and first kills differential.
2.) SDY (Spirit) –
Why not take a risk on the contrarian team in play here, as they are a huge under-dog in this match as stated above with a contrarian CAPT as well? SDY has the best numbers so far in the two matches these two squads have played for Spirit, while tying with iDISBALANCE for the least amount of times killed by Astralis as well. Also, he is the only player with not a negative FK differential over those matches to boot.
VALUES: (2 FLEX Picks From Match):
1.) Magisk (Astralis) –
Magisk has been one of the better players for Astralis lately, and he actually led them in the server in their loss to Heroic on Tuesday. His averages in the last two matches against Spirit have not been ideal, but when you factor in his recent play, he has more value to me than say gla1ve or es3tag. Magisk actually is tied for second-best numbers on Astralis with es3tag at a 1.14 Rating over the last month of play (19 maps). He is also sporting a 0.71 KPR, nice 0.62 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 78.9 ADR.
2.) mir (Spirit) –
Typically, Spirit’s best player is mir, and there is no hiding that fact. He leads the team in the server over the past month of play (21 maps) with a 1.17 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. His DPR of 0.67 has gotten a bit up there in recent memory, and it also shows in his averages against Astralis in their two prior head-to-heads as he is tied with two others for most deaths on average for the sample. Either way, he is usually their top-priced player, and with Spirit being a dog, we can likely get him at a much cheaper cost for this slate. Mir has averaged 58 DK fantasy points over his last five, while notching out three 4 Kill Rounds as well. He has the upside to lead the server, and I don’t mind using him as a leverage captain either.
NaVi (Ranked 8th in World) vs Complexity (Ranked 10th in World)
In our second best of three match, we have the winners of their own respective upper-bracket quarter final matches on Monday, now playing in the upper-bracket semi-final match for this slate. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, as we could have assumed, NaVi is the favorite in this one and they are listed as -220 favorites on the money line to win this match. NaVi comes into this one in excellent recent form, as they have won all five of their prior five engagements against their opponents, while Complexity broke a three-match skid in their most recent making beating out ENCE to be featured in this match. We do have four matches played between these two squads with both teams splitting the wins at 2 apiece and Complexity winning the most recent two matches for reference, so let’s take a look at some of the key statistics from these head-to-heads.
NAVI (Averages vs COL L4 Head-to-Heads):
- S1mple – 52 Kills, 10 Assists, 37 Deaths, +9 FK +/-
- Boombl4 – 39 Kills, 11 Assists, 44 Deaths, -10 FK +/-
- Flamie – 37 Kills, 11 Assists, 39 Deaths, +3 FK +/-
- Electronic – 35 Kills, 10 Assists, 41 Deaths, -2 FK +/-
- Perfecto – 31 Kills, 11 Assists, 40 Deaths, -7 FK +/-
COMPLEXITY (Averages vs NaVi L4 Head-to-Heads):
- BlameF – 41 Kills, 16 Assists, 34 Deaths, +9 FK +/-
- K0nfig – 40 Kills, 9 Assists, 42 Deaths, +3 FK +/-
- Poizon – 38 Kills, 14 Assists, 38 Deaths, -2 FK +/-
- RUSH – 35 Deaths, 11 Assists, 39 Deaths, -5 FK +/-
CAPTAIN’S CORNER (2 CAPT Picks From Match):
1.) S1mple (NaVI) –
No really getting around this one, the guy is just good. I mean really good. As you can see by his averages against Complexity over their last four meetings, his Kills alone are head-above basically everyone that will be in this server on this match. His AWP sniper rifle allows him to claim lots of First Kills, and that means extra fantasy points. He sits with a +9 FK differential, which is best on his team, and tied with blameF for most in this head-to-head data. The only other person that has also died the least amount on average less than his is also – blameF. Either way, S1mple put up 154.50 DK Fantasy points in the CAPT spot on Tuesday against Mousesports and has averaged 95 DK Fantasy points just as a flex over his last five matches. Not to mention his 1.42 Rating, 0.95 KPR, and 93.5 ADR over his last month of play online (19 total map sample).
2.) blameF (COL) –
Not much of a shocker here as well, as blameF is the lead for Complexity on the server for basically the last few months (1.25 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 83.6 ADR over last month (26 map sample team-leading), but he also has the best numbers on average against NaVi as well over their last four meetings as shown above. It isn’t really the Kills that are the biggest attribute for him here, his 16 average assists over the four matches is something that is pretty eye-opening, and these will add immensely to fantasy production as well. As mentioned above, he has died the least amount on average of any player on his team against NaVi, while also notching out the best FK differential as well by a wide margin. BlameF put up 75.5 DK fantasy points in their most recent meeting as well with a 37-13-31 K-A-D ratio, with just four First Kills.
VALUE FLEX (2 FLEX Picks From Match):
1.) Boombl4 (NaVi) –
This is a contrarian pick for NaVi, as most will be looking at Electronic, however, Electronic doesn’t exactly have the greatest numbers on average against COL over their last four matches. Guess who was second in averages though? That’s right, Boom. Guess who has the second-best numbers on the team over the past month of play for NaVi? Boom. Boom sits with a 1.10 Rating, 0.66 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 77.6 ADR over his last 19 maps played. He has literally made a huge improvement in his game lately and has climbed the ratings a bit in terms of ranks on his team. Boom has averaged roughly 60 DK fantasy points, 9.2 First Kills, 13.2 Assists, with a 1v3, 1v4, and a total of three 4 Kill Rounds over his lsat five matches. Have to ride the hot-hand here, as his numbers lately, and his averages against COL warrant some value.
2.) Poizon (COL) –
Many likely won’t want to play the AWP against S1mple in this match, but let’s face it, poizon has pretty much shown over the last couple of months that he is one of the better AWPer’s in the game right now. He is not on S1mple’s level, but he has shown he is highly capable of putting up fantasy points in heaps, as with most AWP players first kills come in quite a bit when they are hitting shots. One of the more interesting stats for poizon when looking over his averages against NaVi over the sample provided, is the 14 average assists, something you usually don’t see an AWP player be 1-2 on his team in, mainly because AWP are typically one-shot one-kill type actions, but poizon seems to make it work. He has averaged 12 assists over his last five matches, including an average of 9.6 First Kills over that span as well, with a total of FOUR 4 Kill Rounds out of his last five to boot.
Honorable Mentions in Stacks: k0nfig (COL), flamie (NaVi)
BIG (Ranked 5th in World) vs Heroic (Ranked 2nd in World)
Oh boy, the last best of three match of this slate is going to be an absolute banger, as these two teams are pretty much rivals at this point. The current betting odds on this match are actually favoring Heroic in this one as well, as they are listed at -123 on the money line, however, if you want to back BIG here you have to lay -105 as well. These two squads are facing off here after both winning their prior upper-bracket quarter final matches, placing them in this upper-bracket semi-finals match. These two squads have played four matches so far in 2020, with Heroic placing a 2-1 result on BIG in their most recent meeting, however, BIG won the three prior matches to this loss, all three coming via the 2-0 sweep. So, you can say that this match has a small bit of a revenge factor here for BIG as they were the number 1 ranked team in the World when Heroic handed them that loss, so in some ways, this could be BIG’s opportunity to repay the favor as Heroic sits as the 2nd ranked team in the World at the moment. Let’s take a look at the averages for the last three matches played head-to-head (didn’t include match with Snappi for Heroic).
BIG (Averages vs Heroic over L3 Head-to-Heads):
- TabseN – 48 Kills, 13 Assists, 43 Deaths, -4 FK +/_
- SyrsoN – 46 Kills, 6 Assists, 38 Deaths, +9 FK +/-
- XANTARES – 45 Kills, 9 Assists, 40 Deaths, -1 FK +/-
- K1to – 43 Kills, 10 Assists, 44 Deaths, +4 FK +/-
- tiziaN – 37 Kills, 11 Assists, 44 Deaths, -14 FK +/-
Heroic (Averages vs BIG over L3 Head-to-Heads):
- stavn – 47 Kills, 9 Assists, 43 Deaths, -1 FK +/-
- niko – 45 Kills 10 Assists, 43 Deaths, +2 FK +/-
- TeSeS – 44 Kills, 12 Assists, 47 Deaths, +9 FK +/-
- CadiaN – 38 Kills, 14 Assists, 42 Deaths, +3 FK +/-
- B0rUP – 34 Kills, 14 Assists, 44 Deaths, -7 FK +/-
CAPTAIN’S CORNER (2 CAPT Picks From Match):
1.) SyrsoN (BIG) –
SyrsoN has been playing almost god-like recently, averaging 72.5 DK fantasy points just as a FLEX. Add on the fact that he is also averaging 13.2 First Kills over that span as well, and an average of 13 Assists, with three 4 Kill Rounds, two 1v2 clutches, and three 1v3 clutches, it is pretty easy to see why he is a top player on this slate. He is second in average Kills to Tabsen against Heroic, but his DPR of 38 on average is much better than his 43, and his +9 FK differential will also play a big role in his fantasy production.
2.) stavn (Heroic) –
Stavn is typically Heroic’s best, or highest upside player, and he has led the team in average DK fantasy points over their last five matches at 62.8. He also has a 1v3 clutch and two 4 Kill Rounds to his name over that span as well, and has notched out at least 12 or more Assists in four of the five, with at least seven or more First Kills as well in four of the five. He has the best numbers on average against BIG over their last three matches to boot, so makes sense that he is likely their best player overall. cadiaN is going to have his hands full with syrsoN and his AWP. TeSeS is a contrarian CAPT if you want to go there, as his K-D-A and FK differential are pretty decent vs BIG in the sample as well.
VALUES: (2 FLEX Picks From Match):
1.) tabseN –
tabseN leads the team in Kills on average vs Heroic for the three-match sample provided above. He is also averaging almost the most deaths against the as well, but he possesses 4 Kill and 5 Kill round upside, which will make for added fantasy value. TabseN has averaged a smooth 67 DK fantasy points just as a FLEX over his last five matches, plus an average of 14 Assists, average of 9.6 First Kills, with a 1v2 clutch, and FOUR 4 Kill Rounds to his name over that span. Easily a value FLEX, or even a CAPT spot.
2.) TeSeS (Heroic) –
TeSeS had quite a monster game against Astralis in their 2-0 victory. He was crushing in flanking and grabbing mult-kill rounds and First Kills almost the whole match. TeSeS has averaged a modest 51 DK fantasy points over his last five matches, while notching out 11 or more Assists in all five, with SEVEN 4 Kill Rounds, and a 5 Kill Round as well for that duration. He has really nice value in this one, and if you are playing Heroic, you will need him in that stack.
Honorable Mentions for Stacks: XANTARES (BIG), niko (Heroic)
STACKS ON – STACKS OFF:
- The Chalk (in Order of ownership across board in my opinion) – BIG, NaVi, Astralis:
(Think NaVi will consume a lot of ownership for S1mple, BIG will distribute ownership between syrsoN, tabseN, and XANTARES, Astralis being such a large favorite will increase ownership)
- Contrarian Corner (In Order to play for GPP leverage) – Heroic, Spirit, Complexity:
(Heroic looked very good yesterday, and I think they have what it takes to beat BIG again and they are locked in, Spirit looked rough against BIG in their 0-2 loss, but they are better than they played and after watching Astralis yesterday, I am not so sure they should be as big of a favorite in this one. Complexity is likely one of my last options as a contrarian stack, as they have one of the worse match ups against NaVi and are playing with a new face in NaToSaPhIX.