Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO September 22
Sean Mitchell breaks down all FIVE matches for Tuesday's CS:GO DFS ESL Pro League Season 12 slate with the Playbook!
Welcome back to another CS:GO DFS playbook brought to you by the good guys over at Fantasy Alarm! We are continuing to cover the ESL Pro League Season 12, and we have a 5-match slate on tap for Tuesday, September 22nd! Let’s jump right in!
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Liquid (Ranked 8th in World)
We start the day off with a banger in our first best of three match in the Group Stage of North America with Evil Geniuses taking on Liquid. Looking over the current betting odds, the books are currently listing EG as the favorites in this one, and they are sitting at -175 on the money line to win this match. These familiar foes both come into this match in good recent form, as Liquid have reeled off three-straight wins over Gen.G, Triumph, and Cloud9, while EG have swept three of their last five matches and won four of those as well. As mentioned above, these two squads know each other very well and have a lengthy head-to-head history, as they just played a Grand Final in the ESL One Cologne tourney as well with EG winning that one with a result of 3-2. That makes four-straight consecutive wins for EG over Liquid in their last four matches as well. Before the Grand Final, EG had swept Liquid three times consecutively as well. Since we do have seven maps played between these two over the last month, let’s note the best performances for each team. For EG, only two turned a positive stat-line despite the being on the winning team, those were Ethan with a +33 K-D Diff, 1.27 K-D, and 1.31 Rating, while Brehze was next with a +20 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.14 Rating. For Liquid, no other than EliGe with the stand-above numbers at +24 K-D Diff, 1.26 K-D, and 1.24 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps.
The first two ban maps for this match include Train for Liquid and Overpass for Evil Geniuses. The typical first map choices lately for these two include Inferno for EG and Nuke for Liquid. However, I don’t think this match will be as easy, as both of these teams like to play map strategy. We have seen Inferno in three of their last four matches, along with Mirage and Nuke splitting two apiece. I do think we could see Inferno still for EG, but I think Mirage is likely the pick for Liquid, unless they get froggy and go with Vertigo, which was one of the two maps they won in the Grand Final. The other? Mirage. I think we see Inferno/Nuke/Mirage, or Vertigo. For this reason, I don’t think it is very beneficial to list the individual performances, just know that EG is favored on mostly all of them. Going to go straight to player options instead.
ANCHOR: Brehze – (Most consistent, Ethan is another CPT option as his numbers have been great vs Liquid lately)
Top Stacking Options: Brehze, Ethan, CeRq/Tarik
ANCHOR: EliGe – (Best player vs EG by far in recent matches, and still their top player)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, Twistzz
Gen.G (Ranked 21st in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 23rd in World)
In our second best of three of the day, we have another one out of the Group Stage of the North American region between Gen.G and Cloud9. Looking over the current betting lines for this match and the books are split right down the middle for this match with both teams listed as -115 on the money line to win. Both of these squads have been on quite the skids lately, as Gen.G have dropped four of their last five, while being swept in four of those five, and Cloud9 have dropped four-straight as well. Gen.G are now in the daps-less period after he stepped away from the team and allowing newbie czxi to be the fifth Gen.G player going forward, for at least the time being. These two teams have played four times so far in 2020, with Cloud9 winning two of their last three, however, it was Gen.G who won their most recent match with a 2-1 result. Since we do have some good head-to-head data, let’s see who played the best against each other in these. For Gen.G, three of their four core players have positive stat lines against C9 over their last five maps played, autimatic tops the list with a +19 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, and 1.16 Rating, next it is BnTeT and Koosta both with around +5 K-D diffs. For Cloud9, three players for them also sit with positive lines for this sample in oSee, floppy, and Sonic. oSee and floppy both sit with over +20 K-D dIffs, while Sonic is sitting with a +11. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Mirage for Cloud9 and Overpass for Gen.G. The two typically first maps chosen lately for these two include Train for Gen.G and Overpass for C9, which will be banned. In the two prior head-to-heads for these two, Vertigo has been the choice by Gen.G, while Cloud9 have chosen Inferno both times as well. I think we could easily see these two maps again here for this one, so let’s see who the top players have been on these lately. For Gen.G on their projected map choice of Vertigo (six map sample), it is BnTeT at the top spot with a 1.19 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.72 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 87.4 ADR. Autimatic follows him at 1.12, s0m at 1.09, and lastly, Koosta at 1.00. For Inferno (10 map sample) only one player sits above a 1.0 rating here and that is BnTeT at 1.08, 0.70 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.00 IMP, and 77.6 ADR. For Cloud9 on their projected map choice of Inferno (10 map sample) it is floppy in the lead here with a 1.13 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.06 IMP, and 82.4 ADR. Only one other makes the list here and that is oSee at 1.01. For Vertigo (11 map sample) oSee is the top player here at 1.16 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 78.9 ADR. Next, it is Sonic at 1.10, floppy at 1.07, and he rounds out the list for Vertigo. I want to think that Cloud9 should win this match, but they have been a dumpster fire lately as well, so I think this match is a complete toss up and this is indicative by the books basically being split on it also. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: BnTeT – (Rates out best on both projected maps and has good numbers vs C9 lately)
Top Stacking Options: BnTeT, autimatic, koosta
ANCHOR: floppy – (Think everyone forgets how good floppy can be with how good oSee has been, going contrarian)
Top Stacking Options: floppy, oSee, Sonic
FURIA (Ranked 9th in World) vs Chaos (Ranked 22nd in World)
In the third best of three of the day, we have yet another match out of the Group Stage for North America region between FURIA and Chaos. The current betting odds are listing FURIA as a -285 favorite on the money line to win this match. FURIA were cruising on a four-match win streak before it was halted in their most recent match as they dropped a 0-2 reverse sweep at the hands of 100 Thieves, while Chaos were winners in the last match against C9 in a 2-0 sweep and have won three of their last five. These two teams have played a total of four times lately, with Chaos coming out the 2-0 victor in their most recent match, while FURIA had won all three of the matches prior to that loss. Since we do have some good head-to-head data here (just a reminder that Chaos has a new player in markE subbed in for Steel), we can look at some of the top performers for these matches. For FURIA (four map sample) it is HEN1 with the stand-out numbers for the sample with a +31 K-D diff, 1.47 K-D, and 1.26 Rating. For Chaos, only one player option had a positive stat-line for this sample and that was leaf with a +4 K-D diff, 1.05 K-D, and 1.04 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two include Vertigo for Chaos and Dust2 for FURIA. The typical first maps chosen lately by these two include Nuke for Chaos and Vertigo for FURIA (which will be banned). FURIA’s next most chosen map will likely be Inferno, and this is a map that Chaos have lost four-straight on as well. The past four matches have literally seen Nuke and Inferno, so I have no reason to think this one will be any different. Let’s see the top players for each of the maps from each team lately. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Inferno (13 map sample) yuurih has been the top player here by a smidge with a 1.22 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.57 DPR, 1.11 IMP, and 78.0 ADR. HEN1 is right on his heels at 1.21, with both VINI and KSCERATO at 1.19, and lastly, arT at 1.13 to round it out. For Nuke (11 map sample) it is HEN1 at the top spot here for this sample with a 1.18 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.22 IMP, and 78.6 ADR. KSCERATO comes in next at 1.10, then its yurrih at 1.08, and lastly, VINI at 1.06. For Chaos on their projected map choice of Nuke (20 map sample) it is Xeppaa still in the lead here with a 1.22 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 82.2 ADR. Jonji is the next after him here at 1.16, then its leaf at 1.12, vanity at 1.11, and lastly, MarKE at 1.03. For Inferno (20 map sample) only Xeppaa makes the list here alone with a 1.11 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.09 IMP, and 77.4 ADR. Hate to say it, but I think Chaos just caught FURIA on a bad day in their last match where they dealt them a sweep, and don’t think they forgot about it either. FURIA in a 2-0 sweep likely incoming here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Xeppaa – (Literally the carry on this team, and tops out on both maps also)
Top Stacking Options: Xeppaa, leaf, vanity
ANCHOR: yurrih – (yurrih is often forgot about on this FURIA team, but he’s really good)
Top Stacking Options: yurrih, HEN1, KSCERATO (VINI for value)
100 Thieves (Ranked 19th in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 58th in World)
Feels like we just saw this match a few days ago or something, but here we are again for our fourth best of three match of the slate, another one out of the Group Stage in North America region between 100 Thieves and Triumph. The 100T come in as the second-largest favorite on the slate for today at -590 on the money line to win this match, and likely for good reason as Triumph hasn’t really been that great lately despite their win over Cloud9. 100T comes into this one in decent form as they have won three of their last four, with nice wins over FURIA, Cloud9, and Chaos. Triumph have dropped their last three in a row. These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches, so we will look at individual performances over the last month for these two teams. For the last month of play for 100T (17 map sample) it is jks in the top spot with a 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.16 IMP, and 83.7 ADR. Jkaem is in the second spot for the span with a 1.11, AZR next at 1.08, Liazz at 1.07, and finally, Gratisfaction at 1.02. For Triumph (23 map sample) only Junior sits above a 1.0 Rating for his team with a 1.09 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.07 IMP, and 72.9 ADR. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Train for Triumph and Overpass for 100T. The two first typical maps chosen lately include Vertigo for 100T and Overpass for Triumph (which will be banned). The next most chosen map for Triumph lately has been Nuke. So, I do believe we will see Vertigo and Nuke for this one. Let’s take a look at some top players for these maps lately from these two teams. For Triumph on their projected map choice of Nuke (15 map sample) it is Junior all alone once again with a 1.24 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.55 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 74.4 ADR. For Vertigo (two map sample) Penny is the top player for the very small sample with a 1.30 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.35 IMP, and 99.3 ADR. He was the only one to make that list as well. For 100 Thieves on their projected map choice of Vertigo (seven map sample) jks is the lead here with a 1.36 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.55 IMP, and 98.6 ADR. He is followed by two teammates with jkaem at 1.11 and Liazz at 1.08. For Nuke (10 map sample) it is jkaem slightly edging out jks here with a 1.11 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.17 IMP, and 77.5 ADR. Jks also has a 1.11 rating, but smaller Kill-Asst% and KPR, Liazz sits at 1.04, and lastly, Gratisfaction sits at 1.03. I think like most else that 100T should take care of business here, and they should be massively chalky, so that means that Triumph is definitely the contrarian leverage if you decide to go that route in gpps. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Junior – (Rates out as tops on both maps and over the last month as well)
Top Stacking Options: Junior, Penny, Moose
ANCHOR: jks – (Guy is rock solid and can carry in any match)
Top Stacking Options: jks, jkaem, Liazz
BOOM (Ranked 75th in World) vs Havan Liberty (Ranked 151st in World)
In our fifth and final best of three match of the day, we have one out of the upper-bracket semi-final for the South Asian region between BOOM and Havan Liberty. Looking at the current betting lines for this match and the books are listing BOOM as the highest-priced favorite on the slate at -1000 on the money line to win this match. BOOM comes into this one with very nice form sitting at five consecutive wins in their last five, while Havan has literally only played three matches here recently and have dropped their last two of the three. These two teams recently played a best of three last month and BOOM won two out of the three maps played, so yes it went three maps. Let’s look at the top performers from this one for these two teams. For BOOM, it was felps with the top line with a 63-44 K-D, 1.35 Rating, and 88.7 ADR. Next, it was shz at 56-46, 1.20 Rating, 83.6 ADR. For Havan, it was drg with the best overall line even though it was dead split on K-D at 53-53 with a 1.03 Rating, and 83.6 ADR. Dok was next with 49 frags and 53 deaths, and 0.91 Rating. I don’t think we can really get a good bead on the maps that could be chosen for this one, as Havan may elect to go a different route this time to offset BOOM in any way, so I don’t feel comfy trying to project any maps for this one. All you need to know is that BOOM is a -1000 favorite. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: felps – (1.46 Rating, 0.95 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.56 IMP and 96.8 ADR over last nine maps)
Top Stacking options: felps, boltz, yel (shz value)
ANCHOR: drg – (best overall player in last match, and top fragger as well)
Top Stacking Options: drg, dok, ALLE (remix also nice value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: jks, Brehze, felps, floppy, EliGe, yurrih
Top Stacks: BOOM, EG, 100T, FURIA
Top Values: Sonic, NAF, Tarik, AZR, VINI