Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO September 11
Sean Mitchell covers all four matches on Friday's CS:GO DFS ESL Pro League Season 12 slate with the Playbook!
The ESL Pro League Season 12 continues on for this Friday with another four-match slate on the docket. Let’s jump right into the playbook for DFS!
OG (Ranked 12th in World) vs GODSENT (Ranked 26th in World)
Our first best of three match of the day features two teams in OG and GODSENT out of Group A play. The current betting odds are listing OG as small -135 favorites on the money line to win this match. Both teams here come in fresh off wins in their prior matches, with OG getting a 2-0 sweep of AGO after losing three in a row, while GODSENT is on a mini-win streak of two after beating both HAVU and ENCE with a 2-1 result after dropping two straight. These two squads have played two total matches so far in 2020, with both matches seeing a full three map affair. Both teams split a win in those two matches as well, with OG winning the most recent, and GODSENT winning the latter. Since we have six maps and both teams splitting a match a piece, let’s take a look at who performed the best in these six maps. For OG, three player options had positive stat-lines for this sample, but it was mantuu who stood out the most sitting with a +34 K-D diff, 1.37 K-D, and 1.21 Rating. Valde was next with a +15 K-D diff, 1.15 K-D, and 1.09 Rating. Nbk- is the last of the three with a positive line, but its +4 K-D diff, so just a smidge above. For GODSENT, just two players for them sit with positive stat-lines for this sample. STYKO and zehN both have similar lines with STYKO at +17 K-D diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.21 Rating, while zehN sits at +18 K- D diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.17 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two typical ban maps for this match include Mirage for GODSENT, and Vertigo for OG. The two typical map choices lately have been Inferno for OG, and Nuke for GODSENT. I don’t see any reason that these two maps shouldn’t be the two chosen, so let’s see who has performed well on these lately. For OG on their projected map choice of Inferno (16 map sample) it is Valde in the top spot for this sample with a 1.23 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 84.3 ADR. All other options follow him here beginning with ISSAA at 1.19, mantuu at 1.16, NBK- at 1.10, and lastly, Aleksib at 1.01. For Nuke (17 map sample) it is Valde again in the lead with a 1.14 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.05 IMP, and 77.6 ADR. Next, it is mantuu at 1.13, Aleksib at 1.10, ISSAA at 1.09, and NBK- sits at 1.02 to round out the list. For GODSENT on their projected map choice of Nuke (eight map sample) it is STYKO in the top spot for this sample with a hefty 1.29 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.38 IMP, and 86.2 ADR. Three follow him here with Farlig at 1.19, zehN at 1.11, and Maden at 1.01. For Inferno (four map sample) zehN is the top play here for the small sample with a 1.26 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 83.8 ADR. After him, Maden is on his heels at 1.22, Farlig at 1.07, and STYKO at 1.03. Both prior matches played saw three maps in this one, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one go three maps as well. This should be a nice match to stack up with some nice options. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Mantuu – (He or Valde are my CPT picks for this one on the OG side)
Top Stacking Options: mantuu, valde, ISSAA
ANCHOR: STYKO – (Most will go Farlig, and he will be chalk, but I like the contrarian looks of both STYKO and zehN here)
Top Stacking Options: STYKO, zehN, Farlig (Maden is value but his DPR is up there)
Complexity (Ranked 6th in World) vs fnatic (Ranked 13th in World)
The second best of three match for today should be an excellent one out of Group B play between Complexity and fnatic. The current betting odds are favoring Complexity in this one, as they sit at -165 on the money line to win this match. Complexity has been on quite the roll lately winning their last three in a row, with two of those coming via the 2-0 sweep. Fnatic has alternated wins and losses in their last three, but have won two of the three, including a 2-0 sweep over long-time rival in FaZe in their most recent match. Looking at the prior head-to-head history for these two, and it has been a one-sided affair mainly in the favor of fnatic, as they hold a six to one map advantage over their last three matches played. Their most recent match, at the DreamHack Masters Spring Event, was the only match of the three to see a full three-maps. The prior two saw fnatic take are of business in just two maps a piece. Since we have seven maps of data, let’s see who the top players were from these head-to-heads. For fnatic, two players really stick out in this sample and that is Brollan and JW. Brollan leads the way with a +32 K-D diff, 1.24 K-D, and 1.24 Rating. JW comes in with the next best line with a +21 K-D diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.18 Rating. For Complexity, just two players for them sit with positive stat-lines for this sample, and it is blameF (to no surprise) and oBo. BlameF leading the way with a +16 K-D diff, 1.12 K-D, and 1.13 Rating, while oBo sits with a +9 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, and 1.13 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Overpass for Complexity and Vertigo for fnatic. The first pick for Complexity continues to be Mirage, while fnatic continues to roll and roll with Inferno (five-map win streak here). I could see Complexity going away from Mirage in this one as well, as fnatic has won roughly 75% of their last four attempts there, and Complexity has won seven-straight on Dust2, while fnatic has stuggled there only winning one of their last four. I do think we see Complexity go with Dust2 here and Fnatic stick with Inferno. Let’s see who has played the best on these maps lately. For Complexity on their projected map choice of Dust2 (seven map sample) blameF at the top spot with a 1.26 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 86.8 ADR. K0nfig is right behind him here with a 1.23, and then its poizon at 1.21, oBo at 1.19, and lastly, RUSH at 1.11. For Inferno (five map sample) blameF is the only player to sit above a 1.0 Rating here, as he sits with a 1.26 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 93.0 ADR. For fnatic on their projected map choice of Inferno (10 map sample) KRIMZ is the lead here with a 1.19 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.17 IMP, and 81.6 ADR. Brollan is next at 1.15, then it is JW at 1.11, Golden at 1.03, and flusha at 1.02 to round it out. For Dust2 (four map sample) it is KRIMZ in the top spot here as well for this sample, sitting with a 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.11 IMP, and 75.0 ADR. Three others follow here with Brollan at 1.03, flusha at 1.02, and JW ends it at the mark of 1.00. I am Complexity continues to get better every day, and they showed a vast improvement in their most recent match against fnatic taking it to three maps. I do think that Complexity is the better overall team, but fnatic has found ways to beat them in the past. I think the books know what is up by listing Complexity as the favorite in this one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: blameF – (Hes the top player and carry for this team)
Top Stacking Options: blameF, oBo, poizon
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (Been their best player lately, tops out on both maps as well)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, Brollan, JW
Cloud9 (Ranked 24th in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 74th in World)
In our third best of three match, we get one out of the Group stage for the North America region featuring Cloud9 and Triumph. Cloud9 comes in as pretty hefty favorites on the money line to win this, and for good reason. They sit at -330 on the money line to win this match. Both teams come into this one in need of a win, as Cloud9 have dropped three-straight, while Triumph have been on a downward spiral since losing most of their core from a few months ago starting with Grim. Triumph literally only have two remaining core players in Junior and Shakezullah from that core as well, so three new faces for them has not been easy on the growing pains lately. These two teams have only played one match with Cloud9 winning a 2-1 result at the ESL One Cologne tourney. Since we don’t have much data to go off of, let’s see who the top players have been over the last month of online play. For Cloud9 (26 map sample) oSee has been immaculate for this span sitting with a 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 82.2 ADR. Three others have played above average as well for C9 beginning with floppy at 1.12, Sonica t 1.01, and lastly, motm also at 1.01. For Triumph (12 maps) yea…no one has over a 0.94 Rating, and Junior sits with that Rating for this span. I told you guys it’s been tough sledding for these guys lately. Let’s project some maps.
The first two ban maps for this match include Mirage for Cloud9 and Train for Triumph. The first maps chosen lately has included Overpass for both. We could see two scenarios I think depending on who gets the first map choice to pick. Likely either will go with Overpass, so I think if Triumph gets second pick it could be Nuke or Vertigo, and likewise, if Cloud9 get the second pick, I think they could go with Vertigo or Inferno. Since we don’t exactly have a clear-cut route to the two maps that likely will be chosen, I am going to elect to not list any individual performances for any maps in this section. However, just note that Triump has been ….bad lately, and C9 are the largest favorites on the slate. Let’s go to the options.
ANCHOR: oSee – (Dude has been blistering hot lately)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, Sonic
ANCHOR: Junior – (Best player on this train-wreck of a team)
Top Stacking Options: Junior, Moose, penny
Astralis (Ranked 11th in World) vs Mousesports (Ranked 20th in World)
In our final match of the day, we have a best of three out of Group B between Astralis and Mouse. The books are currently listing Astralis as a -250 favorite on the money line to win this match. Astralis out-lasted Vitality in their most recent match for a 2-1 winning result, extending their mini-win streak to two, while Mousesports dropped a three-map thriller to NiP in their most recent match after recording two nice wins over both fnatic and FaZe prior to the loss. These two squads have faced off a few times already in 2020, three total times to be exact with Mouse coming away with two wins out of the three matches played. One was by the 2-0 sweep, with the other coming in with a 2-1 result. Astralis’s lone win was a 2-0 sweep. Since we do have seven maps of data, let’s see who the top performers were for this sample. For Astralis, Magisk is the top player against Mouse of this sample, with Device coming in second. Magisk sits with a +29 K-D Diff, with a 1.26 K-D, and 1.28 Rating, while device sits at a +22 K-D diff, 1.20 K-D, and 1.18 Rating. For Mouse, as most could have guessed it is ropz alone on this island, but he has been excellent for this sample sitting with a +35 K-D diff, 1.33 K-D, and 1.18 Rating. He is the only player with a positive stat-line for this sample as well, albeit Bymas not having any data to go off of. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Mirage for Astralis, and Overpass for Mouse. The typical first maps chosen lately for these two squads include Nuke for Astralis (four-map win streak here also), and Train for Mouse. I do believe we see these two maps for this match as well, so let’s see who has performed well on these lately. For Astralis on their projected map choice of Nuke (four map sample) Dupreeh has been the lead here for the short sample size with a 1.34 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.55 DPR, 1.25 IMP, and 86.9 ADR. Next, its device at 1.29, gla1ve at 1.33 (two map sample), then its Bubzkji when in at 1.20, and finally Magisk at 1.14. For Train (four map sample) it is Magisk at the top spot here with a 1.17 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.05 IMP, and 79.3 ADR. He is followed by gla1ve at 1.22 (only two map sample), and device at 1.08. For Mouse on their projected map choice of Train (three map sample) ropz is the lead here with a 1.28 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.41 IMP, and 91.6 ADR. Two others follow him here with frozen at 1.19, and Bymas at 1.07. For Nuke (five map sample) it is ropz alone on this island as well as the only player above a 1.0 Rating, as he sits with a 1.21 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 0.74 DPR, 1.33 IMP, and 89.4 ADR. I think Astralis should likely win this match, and I think they could win it 2-0 to be honest. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: device – (he has come around quite a bit lately and is still a great carry on this team)
Top Stacking Options: device, Magisk, dupreeh/gla1ve
ANCHOR: ropz – (no-braainer, right?)
Top Stacking Options: ropz, frozen, Bymas
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: blameF, oSee, mantuu, device, ropz
Top Stacks: Astralis, Complexity, Cloud9, OG
Top Values: Will update when salaries are released!