NBA DFS Write-Up and Example Lineups: September 9

The NBA playoffs roll on and we have another two-game slate on tap tonight, so let’s see who we will be targeting in DFS!

GAME 1

Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics (6:40 PM ET, ESPN)

Betting Odds: BOS -3.5, Total: 210

We have Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semi-finals tonight between the Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors. Just two short days ago, the Boston Celtics put the wrath of their strapping defense on the Raptors early and often leading to a lop-sided 111-89 victory in Game 5. Tonight, the Raptors will need to dig down deep and play their hearts out to force a final Game 7 for this series, or their playoff run will end tonight. Let’s see what players we will be targeting tonight.

BOSTON CELTICS:

Top Tier:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,300 DK/$9,400 FD) – Tatum has played tons of minutes so far in this series, as he has seen at least 36 or more in all five games so far. There are two things that are for sure with Tatum, one is his minutes are going to be high, and two his usage is going to be high as well, as he leads the team with an overall usage of 26.9% for the series. One thing that has not exactly exceeded his minute totals or his usage rate, is his fantasy production. He has only put up over 41 fantasy points in this series just once, a 55-point effort in Game 2. Needless to say, we know Tatum has 50+ fantasy point upside, however, it is at almost a very high premium price to shoot for that upside tonight, especially when he hasn’t met value in four of the five games played. Just keep that in mind.
• Jaylen Brown ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD) – I am placing Brown in my top tier for tonight for his price alone. Brown has been excellent in all but basically one game so far in this series. He has put up at least 30 o%, r more fantasy points in four of the five, while topping 38 fantasy points in three of those five as well. He is right behind Tatum in terms of usage rate at 25.1%, while seeing 36 or more minutes in four of the five games played as well. He contributes in most categories, and his defense has been stellar registering seven total steals, with six total blocks to boot in this series so far. Love Brown once again tonight.

Middle Tier:

• Kemba Walker ($8,100 DK/$8,300) – Not exactly loving the price on Kemba tonight, and it has gotten up to a point somewhat like Tatum where you are paying a premium for a guy that hasn’t touched value at this price but just two times so far in this series, however, his floor in this series has been solid as he has notched out at least 30 or more fantasy points in all five games played. His minutes are there, and he is third on the team in usage at 21.6%.
• Marcus Smart ($6,500 DK/$5,700) – Love Smart’s price on FD, not so much on DK. Smart has played well, his defense has put a strangle hold on Lowry especially for Game 5, but his fantasy production hasn’t exactly been stupendous. Smart’s major fantasy asset is his ability to record steals and blocks, as he has 4 total steals, and four total blocks in the five games played, and thus has allowed him to put up at least 26 or more fantasy points in all of those games as well. Where his value also comes in on DK is in three-point baskets, and if he isn’t hitting his shot, he likely won’t get close to touching his 5x value on DK at 32.5 DK fantasy points. On FD, I am liking the price much more

Value Tier:

• Daniel Theis ($5,400 DK/$5,600 FD) – Theis has been an absolute machine in this series, just out-playing both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka of the Raptors down-low. He is fresh off a 30-fantasy point outing and has now topped 22 or more fantasy points in all five games. His floor has been solid, he has seen 30 minutes in three of the five games, and I really like him once again as a mid-range value here.
• Brad Wanamaker ($3,500 DK/$4,100 FD) – I am not over-indulging in this play by any means, but he showed some nice flash in Game 5, and need I remind the game was quite out of reach by the second half, however, his 28 minutes was encouraging (I know he hasn’t seen more than 13 yet) and the 25 fantasy points was also quite nice. Likely won’t catch another one of these games from him, but in the event that you believe TOR can’t hang tonight as well, he may be a punt play for you in gpps.

TORONTO RAPTORS:

Top Tier:

• Kyle Lowry ($8,200 DK/$8,900) – As mentioned above, the clamps were placed on Lowry by Smart in Game 5, and it really hurt the Raptors flow in that game. Lowry put up a series low 23 fantasy points, and we all know Lowry knows this. I could sit here and claim this is a major bounce-back spot for Lowry, but I am pretty sure the Celtics know what they did in Game 5 to be so successful, and I doubt they veer away from that strategy. Lowry had been excellent in this series up to this point, and we know his upside is there as it has been so far in this series, but the thought of having Smart on him all of Game 6 is not exactly something we love paying over $8K for, right? I think Lowry is a great GPP play, as I think most are going to roll right past him after they see his out-put from last game.
• Fred VanVleet ($7,500 DK/$7,900 FD) – This is the play I think I want for the TOR backcourt. FVV has to be the guy tonight. He got into foul trouble early in Game 5 with three in the first half, and it really hampered his mindset pertaining to driving to the basket. FVV is going to have to take his game to another level tonight if we get Smart on Lowry again for Game 6. FVV has been one of the more solid floor guys for this series, putting up 34 or more fantasy points in all five games, seeing 38 minutes or more in four of the five, and his price went down for Game 6. He will be in my lineups.

Middle Tier:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – Siakam was great in Game 4 in Toronto’s win, and then was basically a no-show in Game 5. His 17 fantasy points in Game 5 has to have left some sour tastes in the mouths of his fantasy owners, and I was one of those actually. Once again, we cannot have any bias in DFS, so with that said, Pascal has put up 31 or more fantasy points in his last three of four, with two of those topping 40 fantasy points. IF the Raptors want to win this game, it will be on the backs of both VanVleet and Siakam. I expect a MUCH more aggressive Pascal tonight.
• OG Anunoby ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – OG was one of the main producers for Game 5, and his size and athleticism was on full-show in this one as well. He had the first seven of the Raptors 10 points off the bat, and he recorded three offensive rebounds in the first half alone. He just didn’t get much help from the other guys around him. OG has literally been one of the best Raptor player options in this series. After starting off warm with 24 fantasy points in Game 1, we saw him put up 32, and 38.5 in Games 2 and 3, and then cooled back off for four and five with only 22.9 and 21.8 fantasy points. Paying near $6k on DK and at this price on FD is not going to cut it with only a low-20ish fantasy production total. However, we have seen 30-point upside.

Value Tier:

• Marc Gasol ($4,100 DK/$4,400 FD) – Gasol needs to step up bigly in Game 6. He has been more than out-played by Theis and Robert Williams, and the veteran needs to show he can still hack it. He only saw 14 minutes in Game 5, however, Serge Ibaka is questionable to play tonight as he twisted an ankle in this one as well, so Gasol literally could see a huge bump in minutes tonight if he is ruled out as a result. Gasol put up 17, 18, and 22 fantasy points in the first three games of this series, and then went MIA with 13.5 in Game 4 and just 8.3 in Game 5. Keep an eye on the Ibaka news, and if he is out, Gasol could be a major value at his price.
• Norman Powell ($3,900 DK/$4,300) – Really digging the price on Powell on DK, and he could also be a huge beneficiate of Ibaka’s vacated minutes in the event that he sits, as we did see TOR go totally small in Game 5 without Gasol or Ibaka, which led to 31 minutes on the floor for Powell along with over 22 fantasy points as well. Powell has really nice value on DK, and I don’t mind him on FD, but I would likely rather pay up for SG on FD.
• Chris Boucher ($3,000 DK/$3,900 FD) – Boucher was granted 12 minutes in Game 5, and it was likely due to blowout, however, if Serge does sit, he could be bumped up a few minutes more so if this game does happen to get out of hand rather quickly. In those 12 minutes on the floor, Boucher was able to amass over a fantasy point per minute, and we know he has major upside. He is a gpp dart for sure, but if Ibaka sits, he could turn into more of a value punt than a total dart.

Game 2

Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Betting Odds: LAC -8, Total: 221

We have Game 4 of the Western Conference semi-finals between the Nuggets and the Clippers for the nightcap here tonight. The Clippers lead the series 2-1 after putting together a big fourth quarter in Game 3, out-scoring the Nuggets 29-19 in route to a 113-107 win. The Nuggets will look to even the series tonight in Game 4. Let’s talk player options.

DENVER NUGGETS:

Top Tier:

• Jamal Murray ($8,600 DK/$8,500 FD) – It seems that every time people start to count the Nuggets out of games, Jamal Murray happens. If the series against Utah was enough evidence, then I don’t really know what else you need to see. Murray was held in check in Game 3’s 36 fantasy point effort, after having an astounding Game 2, in which he notched out over 45 fantasy points on 27 actual, with three boards, six dimes, two swipes, and one swat. Not to scoff at 36 fantasy points, but watching Murray drop 50-actual in multiple games against the Jazz, we were a bit spoiled to say the least. I know the Jazz aren’t even on or near the same level as the Clippers, but we did almost see a 50-burger, so we know the upside is there. They will need him once again tonight to even this series.
• Nikola Jokic ($9,900 DK/$9,900 FD) – Jokic has been more than stellar in both of the two recent games against the Lakers after a sub-par showing in Game 1. He has topped 60 fantasy points in back-to-back games, and he has been an absolute monster. If you ever took a look at his regular season games against the Clippers, you would have known he was averaging near a triple-double against them in three games, and this likely wouldn’t have been as much of a shock to see him produce like this in back-to-back games. Here is the thing, the Clippers don’t have an answer for him, and he is basically getting everything he wants. Jokic is my top play tonight, and I don’t mind how chalky he is, because we see the upside, and there isn’t really another player on this slate with 60-point upside, besides Kawhi, or Tatum likely.

Middle Tier:

• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200 DK/ $5,400 FD) – MPJ stepped up bigly in Game 3 with a 40-fantasy point effort putting up 18 actual, 10 boards, one dime, and three steals in just 23 minutes on the floor. His minutes have been super inconsistent with his defensive woes, but we see the upside he brings. MPJ is a boom-or-bust play, and I expect quite a few to chase his last game production tonight, making him likely a pretty highly-owned option. However, we know he can ball out if given the minutes, but we have to remember this is a Mike Malone coached team after all.
• Paul Millsap ($4,800 DK/$$4,900 FD) – I am buying into Millsap tonight, and hoping that we get games 1 and 2 type performances where he put up 22.5 and 33.3 fantasy points. He was a dud in Game 3 with just 16.5 fantasy points, however, he still saw 28 minutes on the floor. He has now seen 24, 32, and 28 minutes in the three games so far in this series, and I think most will likely gravitate to MPJ around his price range. Could catch a low-owned Millsap on a nice night if he gets nice minutes once again.

Value Tier:

• Gary Harris ($4,600 DK/$5,300 FD) – Not really sure why his price is where it is on FD, but I am not worried about that because I want him on DK anyways. Harris shot the ball really well in Game 3, leading him to his highest fantasy out-put since his return to the floor. He notched out 28.8 DK fantasy points on 10 points, a board, six dimes, and FOUR steals. I hate to say it, but Harris is a 3 and D wing player, and he likely doesn’t score well unless his three-ball is falling, but the six assists were a nice plus, and even if he can’t sustain that number, even getting 3-4 assists with similar shooting totals and a steal or two even, will net over 20 or so fantasy points making him a decent value on DK in my opinion.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS:

Top Tier:

• Kawhi Leonard ($10,300 DK/$10,600 FD) – As I mentioned above on Jokic’s detail, I think there are literally 1-3 players on this slate that can put up 60 fantasy points and Leonard is in that mix. Kawhi is fresh off a 53.5 fantasy point effort where he put up 23 points, 14 boards, six dimes, and two swats. He has now put up over 40 fantasy points in all three games of this series, and I doubt we see anything less for Game 4.
• Paul George ($8,500 DK/$8,200) – Playoff P is trying to shine through in this series, as PG13 has topped 40 fantasy points in his last two outings. He has now put up at least 36 or more fantasy points in all three games, and likely is one of the safer plays on the slate as he and Leonard share pretty much ALL the usage for the Clippers. PG’s fantasy production has just continued to rise over the first three games of this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for 45+ once again tonight.

Middle Tier:

• Marcus Morris ($4,900 DK/$5,100 FD) – Morris has been more than inconsistent for this series so far, however, we did see him put up 33.3 in Game 1. He has put up at least 21 or more fantasy points in two of the three games so far, and his price is more affordable as a mid-tier value with his 27, 31, and 35 minutes played over those three. He has scored in double-figures in all three, while pulling down at least 3 or more boards, and two total steals as well. His shooting has been better than average as well, as he has hit 16-of-27 FGAs to boot.
• Ivica Zubac ($4,800 DK/$4,700 FD) – I am not putting much weight onto Zubac’s Game 3 performance, but we did see him put up 17 and 25.8 fantasy points in the prior two. His price is a bit higher than we would like, and the reemergence of Harrell has confined him back to his usual 20-22 minutes, but he has been decently productive so far in this series, and he neared a double-double in Game 2, as he was shy just one rebound in doing so, which would have more than likely pushed his fantasy total over 30 points.

Value Tier:

• Patrick Beverly ($3,600 DK/$4,800) – I can’t help but love Bev’s price on DK after seeing him play 21 minutes in route to 20.5 DK fantasy points with seven points, four boards, three dimes, a steal and block in Game 3. Beverly was reported to be “staying on a minute’s limit for the whole series”, however, we saw his minutes jump from 15 to 21 from Game 2 to Game 3, so you be the judge. Either way, if he is going to see around 20-24-minute tonight as a result, and only being $3.6K on DK, I will have lots.