Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO September 8
Sean Mitchell breaks down all four-matches on the ESL Pro League Season 12 CS:GO DFS slate with the playbook!
Welcome back, Ladies and Gents as we approach yet another CS:GO DFS ESL Pro League Season 12 slate! We have another four-match slate on tap for Wednesday, so let’s see what we have in store!
Complexity (Ranked 6th in World) vs Spirit (Ranked 18th in World)
In our first best of three match for the ESL Pro League Season 12 slate, we have one out of Group B between Complexity and Spirit. The current betting lines are showing Complexity to be the favorite in this match with a -185-money line. Both of these squads were victors in their last rounds of this event, with Complexity taking care of NiP in a confident 2-0 sweep, while Spirit shocked Vitality in a three-map thriller that ended with a 2-1 result. These two teams don’t have any head-to-head data to analyze, so let’s analyze who the top performers have been for the last month of play online. For Complexity (18 map sample) it is still blameF in the lead spot with a 1.23 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.54 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 82.6 ADR. He is followed very closely by poizon at a 1.21 Rating, and then its oBo at 1.17, k0nfig at 1.06, and lastly, Rush comes in at 0.99. For Spirit (29 map sample) mir is the top player with a 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 86.2 ADR. Next, it is iDISBALANCE at 1.15, sdy at 1.09, magixx at 1.04, and lastly, chopper at 1.03. Let’s see if we can narrow down some projected map choices for these two teams.
The first two ban maps include Overpass for Complexity and Vertigo for Spirit. The two typical first map choices lately for these two squads include Dust2 for Spirit (which we need to point out that Complexity has won seven in a row here also), and Mirage for Complexity. I truly don’t see much of a reason to think that we don’t see these two maps, unless one of these teams decides to play map strategy, and in that event, we likely see Nuke thrown in somewhere, but I don’t think these teams will do so. Let’s see who has played the best lately on the maps of Mirage and Dust2. For Spirit on their projected map choice of Dust2 (10 map sample) iDISBALANCE has been the best here over the last month with a 1.22 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 80.2 ADR. After him, it is sdy at 1.11, chopper at 1.10, mir also at 1.10, and that rounds out the list. For Mirage (six map sample) iDISBALANCE leads this one as well for this span, sitting at 1.30 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 83.7 ADR. Mir is nipping at his heels with a 1.29, while sdy sits at 1.14, and Magixx ends the list at 1.07. For Complexity on their projected map of Mirage (12 map sample) no other than blameF at the lead with a 1.28 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.25 IMP, 87.5 ADR. He is followed by poizon at 1.14, oBo at 1.10, and k0nfig at 1.08 to round out the list. For Dust2 (seven map sample) blameF still the top guy here also with a 1.26 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 86.8 ADR. K0nfig is right on his heels here with a 1.23, poizon also at 1.21, oBo at 1.19, and lastly, RUSH at 1.11 here to end it. I do think we have to side with Complexity here, as I feel both projected maps fit them better, and I do think this match could easily go three maps. Should be a close one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: blameF – (it is the chalk pick, and I am fine with that, could also go poizon or k0nfig to be different)
Top Stacking Options: blameF, poizon, k0nfig (oBo nice value)
ANCHOR: mir – (dude is a stud, but can go iDISBALANCE for contrarian look)
Top Stacking Options: mir, iDISBALANCE, chopper (magixx has played well lately also)
NiP (Ranked 10th in World) vs Mousesports (Ranked 20th in World)
In our second best of three on the day, we get our second match out of Group B as well between NiP and Mousesports. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, the books are listing NiP as a -155 favorite on the money line to win this one. NiP have dropped their last three matches in a row, two via the 2-0 reverse sweep, while Mousesports have been on a mini-win streak of two matches over both fnatic and FaZe. These two teams have only played one match lately, and it was a best of one at the 2019 DreamHack Masters Malmo Event, and it didn’t feature the new looks that NiP have, so no need to analyze that match. Let’s see who has been performing the best over the last month of play online. For NiP (17 map sample) it is Plopski as the top play for this span, sitting at a 1.12 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 79.4 ADR. Three others sit above a 1.0 Rating for this span starting with REZ at 1.06, hampus at 1.04, and nawwk at 1.03. For Mouse (10 map sample) interestingly enough, Bymas has been the best bet for this range (reminder he has only played 5 maps with Mouse) sitting at 1.15 rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.01 IMP, and 78.4 ADR. For the rest, it is ropz at 1.13, frozen at 1.05 and he ends the list over ratings above a 1.0. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two include Dust2 for NiP, and Overpass for Mouse. Just so happens that Overpass was a typical first map choice for NiP, so I feel pretty confident we see Mirage from them, and Train has been the typical first map choice for Mouse lately as well. Mirage is a good map for NiP, as they have won near 70% of their last nine attempts there, while Mouse has not played on Mirage in the past three months. Train is a map that Mouse have only played twice lately, however it makes up 42% of their first map choices lately. Only other map that comes close to it for them is Nuke. Both maps have only seen Mouse win roughly 50% of their attempts, and neither has been played over four times. I could see Mouse going with Nuke as a map strategy pick, as NiP have not played well there lately, only winning 17% of their last six attempts. Seeing as how Mouse has chosen Nuke in two of their last three matches, I think we could feel pretty confident in seeing both Mirage and Nuke for this match. Let’s see who the top players have been on these two maps for these teams. For NiP on their projected map choice of Mirage (nine map sample) Plopski is the lead guy here with a 1.28 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.22 IMP, and 87.3 ADR. All other players for NiP fit the bill here, as hampus is next at 1.12, nawwk at 1.08, REZ at 1.01, and lastly, twist right at the number of 1.0. For Nuke (six map sample) it has not been a good map at all for NiP, as they literally have zero player options above a 1.0 Rating for this sample. For Mouse on their projected map choice of Nuke (four map sample) ropz is the ONLY guy playing above average here for this sample, and he sits at a 1.22 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 0.75 DPR, 1.32 IMP, and 90.7 ADR. For Mirage (zero maps played over last three months). So, this match is pretty interesting, as NiP have lost three straight, so they are looking for a major bounce-back, and on the flip-side we have Mouse basically on the total opposite after winning their last two in a row. The maps don’t exactly favor each all that much, but I could see them splitting their first map choices. I think Mouse could also 2-0 them as an outcome. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Plopski – (if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. He has been their best player lately besides REZ)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, REZ, hampus/nawwk
ANCHOR: Ropz – (No brainer, as he is their best player by far, Bymas is contrarian if you are feeling froggy in gpp)
Top Stacking Options: Ropz, Bymas, Karrigan
FURIA (Ranked 9th in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 74th in World)
Our third best of three match of this Event today is one out of the Group stage, and it features FURIA vs Triumph. Looking at the current betting odds, as you could have easily guessed FURIA is a massive -900 favorite on the money line to win this match, and they likely should be. Triumph is a team in a pretty much total rebuild right now, as they have not only lost Grim, they also lost curry, and more recently, Spongey as well. They have basically rebuilt with a few players from ENVY in moose, ryann, and penny. Nonetheless, Triumph has a lot of chemistry-building work to do and they are quite a ways off from being able to compete with a team like FURIA. FURIA has won three of their last four matches, with their only loss coming to arguably the best team in CS:GO right now in Evil Geniuses. Triumph has dropped all five of their last five matches, and I don’t exactly see an end in sight yet. Looking over the last month’s production numbers for each squad, FURIA (22 map sample) is led by HEN1, who sits with a 1.11 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.01 IMP, and 71.9 ADR. Three other options in arT, yuurih, and KSCERATO all sit at 1.11 as well, but HEN1 has the best DPR of the three. VINI isn’t far behind at 1.09 to round it out. For Triumph (14 map sample) let’s just say no one is over a 1.0 Rating, and its not good. Let’s go right to the projected maps for this match.
The first two ban maps include Dust2 for FURIA and Train for Triumph. The two typical first map choices for these two include Overpass for Triumph and Vertigo for FURIA. I honestly think we do see these two map choices as well for this match. Let’s see the top performers for each lately. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Vertigo (13 map sample) it is arT at the top for this map at a 1.26 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.74 DPR, 1.52 IMP, and 85.8 ADR. Yuurih is next at 1.22, KSCERATO at 1.15, HEN1 at 1.08 and he rounds out the list for Vertigo. For Overpass (three map sample) it is HEN1 at the top spot here with a 1.19 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 1.34 IMP, and 84.3 ADR. Yuurih is next here also at 1.16, arT at 1.15, and lastly, KSCERATO at 1.02. For Triumph on their projected map choice of Overpass (13 map sample) Junior and his AWP has the top spot here at 1.09 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 0.95 IMP, and 71.3 ADR. He is only followed by Shakezullah here at 1.05. For Vertigo (2 map sample) Penny sits at the top for the short sample with a 1.30 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.35 IMP, and 99.3 ADR. He is the only option to fit the requirements here as well. I will just say this, FURIA will be the chalk, but they should easily sweep this match. Triumph is just not a good team at the moment, and they are running into a very good team in FURIA. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: HEN1 – (Tops out as top-rated player lately, and rates well on both maps)
Top Stacking Options: HEN1, Yuurih, arT
ANCHOR: Penny – (I just advise fading Triumph)
Top Stacking Options: Penny, Junior, Moose
Vitality (Ranked 1st in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 11th in World)
Our fourth and final match for this Event today is quite the banger, and it is also out of Group B. This one features the top-ranked team in the World in Vitality, and the former top-ranked team in the World in Astralis. Interestingly enough, the books are currently listing Astralis as a -150 favorite on the money line to win this match. Vitality is fresh off a 1-2 result loss to Spirit, while Astralis completed a 2-0 sweep of FaZe to get back on the winning track after dropping their prior two matches to Complexity and NiP, in which both were via the sweep as well. Vitality will most definitely be looking to get back to their winning ways as well in a bounce-back spot here. We do have some recent head-to-head data to analyze for these two in terms of head-to-head data, but we must remember that Astralis has a few new faces, and one familiar face that just returned as well. Bubzkji and es3tag are the new guys, while gla1ve also just returned to the lineup in the last few matches. Astralis has basically alternated Bubzjki and es3tag in their prior two matches with the return of gla1ve, so it is pretty important to know which of these options will make the fifth player for this match as well, as it is not listed at the moment. On DraftKings, it is actually listing gla1ve as “OUT”, but we will need to get some clarification on this as well. Let’s see who the top performers have been over the last month of online play for these two teams instead of looking at head-to-head data. For Vitality (19 map sample) we know it is zywOo in the lead spot with a 1.30 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.42 IMP, and 86.2 ADR. He is followed by two others above a 1.0 Rating in shox at 1.12, and RpK at 1.05. For Astralis (10 map sample) it is actually Magisk in the top spot for this span with a 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.17 IMP, and 79.6 ADR. He is followed by gla1ve (Four map sample) at 1.19, device at 1.14, dupreeh at 1.06, and lastly, Bubzjki at 1.0. Interestingly enough, es3tag is not even listed anymore. Let’s look at some projected maps for this match
The first ban maps for these two lately include Train for Vitality, and Mirage for Astralis. Dust2 is the typical first map choice for Vitality lately, while Nuke has been the pick for Astralis (and they have a four-map win streak here also). Vitality has the edge on Dust2 however, as Astralis has only played it twice lately, and Vitality has a 70% success rate there in their last 13 attempts also. Vitality is also winning 60% of their last 10 tries on Nuke as well, so it won’t be just an easy task for Astralis either. I don’t feel we need to list individual performances for two reasons, one – ZywOo will lead both for Vitality, and two- we don’t exactly know who is playing for Astralis. I do like the dog in this match however, and I think Vitality has the edge on the maps as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (no explanation)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, RpK/misutaaa has been good also lately
ANCHOR: Magisk – (let’s ride the contrarian hot-hand here)
Top Stacking Options: Magisk, device, es3tag/gla1ve
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, blameF, mir, HEN1, Magisk, ropz
Top Stacks: FURIA, Vitality, Mouse, Complexity
Top Values: device, k0nfig, Bymas, VINI, misutaaa, magixx, Karrigan