We are back for another ESL Pro League Season 12 slate today with another four-matches to be played. Let’s dive right in!
MATCH 1
Fnatic (Ranked 13th in World) vs Mousesports (Ranked 22nd in World)
The first best of three match for this Saturday features two teams that are very familiar with each other in fnatic and Mouse. This is a match our of Group B play. The current betting odds are listing fnatic as a slight favorite on the money line sitting at -150 to win this match. Both of these teams were victorious in their prior matches, as fnatic took down Spirit in a three-map thriller, while Mouse ousted FaZe pretty easily in a 2-0 sweep. Both teams had been on a small skid prior to their last match wins, so they will both be looking to keep the momentum going. These two teams have played a number of times already in 2020, and it is fnatic that has the series lead for 2020 matches played so far, as they have won all four of their prior matches, including the Grand Final at the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe. Since we do have quite a few maps of data for these two in terms of head-to-head, let’s see the top performers for these matches in this year. For fnatic (10 map sample) it is KRIMZ sitting pretty high on the lead against Mouse in this sample with a +50 K-D diff, 1.32 K-D, and 1.21 Rating. Brollan is next with a +31 K-D diff, 1.19 K-D, and 1.26 Rating. All players for fnatic have a positive stat-line for this sample as well. For Mouse (10 map sample) as you could have probably guessed, the only player with a positive stat-line is ropz, as he sits with a +27 K-D diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.11 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Overpass for Mouse and Vertigo for fnatic. The typical first maps chosen continue to be Inferno for fnatic and Train for mouse. I do think we see these two maps as they are pretty clear-cut in terms of first map pick% lately. So, let’s see who has performed the best on these two lately for these two. For fnatic on their typical map choice of Inferno (nine map sample) it is KRIMZ, who has been playing very well lately, in the lead still with a 1.12 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.07 IMP, and 80.7 ADR. After KRIMZ, it is Brollan on his heels at 1.11, JW at 1.05, Golden at 1.03, and lastly, flusha at 1.02. For Train (10 map sample) it is KRIMZ up top once again this time with a 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.09 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. Only followed by three here, Brollan at 1.15, flusha at 1.08, and JW at 1.01 to round it out. For Mouse on their projected map choice of Train (four map sample) ropz is the clear-lead and only player with an above average rating here sitting at 1.27 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.40 IMP, and 86.8 ADR. For Inferno (two map sample) interestingly enough, it has been Karrigan in the lead for the two-map small sample here with a 1.18 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. Ropz is the only one to follow him here and he sits with a 1.14. I have to say that I really like fnatic in this one. I believe the maps favor them, and fnatic played really well against Spirit. I am not putting a ton of weight onto the Mouse win over FaZe, as FaZe played like total piss, so I do think this match could easily turn into a fnatic 2-0 sweep. Let’s talk options.
FNATIC:
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (He has been the best player for them lately, and he rates out as top on both maps)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, Golden, flusha/Brollan
MOUSESPORTS:
ANCHOR: ropz – (This is pretty clear if you read the analysis)
Top Stacking Options: ropz, Karrigan, Bymas
MATCH 2
Complexity (Ranked 9th in World) vs NiP (ranked 10th in World)
In our second best of three match we have a banger of a match ahead in Group B play with Complexity and NiP. The current betting odds are listing Complexity as a very small -125 favorite on the money line to win this match. Complexity is fresh off a convincing 2-0 sweep over a resurgent Astralis team, while NiP were losers in their last two matches, both at the hands of Vitality. Before the two losses to Vitality however, NiP had won three straight over Astralis, NaVi, and BIG, so this is somewhat of a bounce-back spot in a big way for NiP and I think the betting line is insinuating this also. These two have only played once this year, and that was at the ESL One: Road to Rio -Europe where NiP won in a three-map thriller by a 2-1 result. NiP won both Train (16-12) and Vertigo (16-11), with Complexity only claiming their map choice of Mirage (16-14). The top players of this match were REZ for NiP with a 69-55 K-D, 1.24 Rating, and 85.2 ADR, and k0nfig was the top fragger for Complexity with a 64-64 K-D, 1.07 Rating, and 84.0 ADR. Let’s take a look at who has been the top players for the past month. For Complexity (16 map sample) poizon has claimed the throne for this sample with a 1.22 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.57 DPR, 1.30 IMP, and 76.6 ADR. Three others have played above average as well with blameF at 1.20, oBo at 1.16, and lastly, k0nfig at 1.04. For NiP (15 map sample) Plopski is the clear lead with a 1.16 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.26 IMP, and 81.2 ADR. He is also followed by three teammates playing above average for this sample as well beginning with REZ at 1.09, hampus at 1.07, and lastly, nawwk at 1.06. Let’s see if we can project some maps.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Dust2 for NiP, and Overpass for Complexity. It is noteworthy that NiP had been choosing Overpass at a decently high-clip lately, so this one will be banned. Complexity continues to choose Mirage as their first pick, and the second-most chosen map lately for NiP has been Vertigo, however, they have a four-map losing streak currently there. The next most-chosen map is Train for them, and it is one they have won almost 70% of their last nine attempts on, so I believe we see Mirage and Train for this match. Let’s see the top players on these two lately. For Complexity on their projected map choice of Mirage (15 map sample) it is blameF at the top spot here with a 1.25 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 84.5 ADR. Next, its poizon at 1.18, oBo at 1.14, and lastly, k0nfig at 1.07 to end the list. For Train (four map sample) it is also blameF here in the lead with a 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.05 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Two others fit the bill here with oBo at 1.14, and poizon at 1.12. For NiP on their projected map choice of Train (nine map sample) REZ is the top player here lately with a 1.17 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.12 IMP, and 86.5 ADR. He is followed closely by Plopski at 1.16, nawwk at 1.10, and hampus at 1.08. For Mirage (nine map sample) Plopski is the top player here with a 1.28 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.22 IMP, and 87.3 ADR. All others follow here with hampus at 1.12, nawwk at 1.08, REZ at 1.01, and twist sitting at the threshold of 1.00. So, I love this match as a game-stack and I could easily see it going three maps as well. I think NiP will be looking to bounce-back, and this is also a small bit of a revenge narrative for Complexity, as they lost their only prior meeting. Really like this one. Let’s talk options.
COMPLEXITY:
ANCHOR: poizon – (This guy has been lights out lately and his AWP has been magical)
Top Stacking Options: poizon, blameF, oBo (k0nfig value)
NIP:
ANCHOR: REZ – (I can go Plopski also, but he will be the chalk capt for NiP, REZ has been great lately)
Top Stacking Options: REZ, Plopski, hampus/nawwk
MATCH 3
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 23rd in World)
For the third match on the slate, we have a best of three match out of the North America region between EG and C9. The current betting odds are heavily favoring the Evil Geniuses here as they sit at -455 on the money line to win this match. EG has been masterful lately, winning all five of their prior five matches by the sweep. Beating Liquid twice, FURIA once, Triumph, and Gen.G in that capacity. Cloud9 look to get back on track as they have dropped their prior two matches, as well as their last four of five matches, with their lone win coming against a putrid Triumph team. These two squads know each other quite well and have played three matches so far in 2020. Surprisingly enough, it is Cloud9 who has held the advantage in these head-to-heads, and they have won two of the last three. The only two best of three matches were won by Cloud9, with their most recent match being a best of one in the BLAST Premier Spring 2020 event where EG left with a close 16-14 victory on Dust2. Since we have a nice number of maps of head-to-head data in last six months, let’s see who performed the best for each team in these. For EG (10 map sample) CeRq is the only player option that sits with a positive K-D, as he sits with a +21 K-D diff, 1.12 K-D, and 1.10 Rating. For Cloud9 (seven maps) three players sit with positive stat-lines for this sample. Sonic is actually the top performer with a +21 K-D diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.16 Rating, next it is floppy with +13 K-D diff, 1.10 K-D, and 1.11 Rating, lastly, it is oSee with a +11 K-D diff, 1.09 K-D, and 1.08 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps lately for these two include Overpass for EG (which happens to be C9’s typical first map chosen), and Mirage for Cloud9. The first pick lately for EG has been Inferno, and it has been a good one as they have won 12 in a row on there for a 92% success rate over the last 13 tries. The second most-chosen map for C9 lately has been Train at nearly 25%, but EG also holds a near 85% success rate there lately, compared to just 57% for C9. I think we could see C9 go with Dust2, as it was a map they were able to win on last match, including Train. So, to be honest, I’m not exactly sure which route C9 goes, as they could literally pick three maps as their choice in Dust2, Train, or even Vertigo. Also, EG has gone with Nuke in two of their last three matches also, so we could very well see them stick to what has worked as well, as they have won Nuke in both best of threes they played recently. So, I am not going to try to pinpoint two maps for these two, as they do tend to play map strategy and as we can see it hasn’t exactly stuck to the “norm” for their typical map choices. I will say that Dust2 has shown up in all three prior matches, and Nuke has shown up twice. So, use that as you will. Let’s talk options.
EVIL GENIUSES:
ANCHOR: CeRq – (He has been the best vs C9 in their prior matches and he can carry)
Top Stacking Options: CeRq, Brehze, Ethan
CLOUD9:
ANCHOR: oSee – (I could go floppy here as well, but oSee has been flames lately)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, Sonic
MATCH 4
FaZe (Ranked 14th in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 11th in World)
In our final best of three match of the day, we get a match out of Group B between FaZe and Astralis. Looking at the current betting odds, it is Astralis out in the lead for favorite in this match sitting at -215 on the money line. Both of these teams have dropped their last two matches, and both were swept in those two matches also. So, with that said, both of these teams will be chomping at the bit to get back in the win column. These two have faced off just twice in 2020, and both have also had a few lineup changes in the past six months or so as well. Either way, FaZe has only been able to win 1 map out of their last nine played, so Astralis has definitely been the favorite in these matches. For the four-map sample in 2020, let’s see who the top performers were. For FaZe, NiKo was the only positive player in this sample and he sits with just a +1 K-D diff, 1.01 K-D, and 1.03 Rating. For Astralis, Dupreeh has the best numbers for this span, sitting with a +34 K-D diff, 1.59 K-D, and 1.3 Rating. Device is next with a +21 K-D diff, 1.34 K-D, and 1.26 Rating. Magisk is the only other play with a positive stat line at +8 K-D diff, 1.12 K-D, and 1.16 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps.
The first two ban maps for these two include Vertigo for FaZe, and Mirage for Astralis. Mirage just so happens to be the typical first map choice for FaZe also, so it’s banned. Astralis has been going with Nuke as their most chosen lately, however, we did see them go with Train in their most recent match, so this could be an interesting factor. However, seeing as FaZe has lost four-straight on Nuke, I would think we see Astralis go Nuke. For FaZe, we likely see them go with Dust2 in my opinion. So, let’s see who has played the best on these two maps lately. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Dust2 (nine map sample) it is NiKo at the top with a 1.15 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 78.7 ADR. After him, it is broky at 1.12, then coldzera at 1.09, and lastly, rain at 1.02. For Nuke (12 map sample) it is also NiKo in the lead here with a 1.09 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.73 DPR, 1.29 IMP, and 86.1 ADR. Kjarebye is next at 1.07, and he finishes the list here. For Astralis on their projected map choice of Nuke (four map sample) it is Dupreeh in the top spot for this sample, as he sits with a 1.32 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.42 IMP, and 83.3 ADR. Next, it is Device at 1.30, then Bubzkji at 1.22, and lastly, Magisk at 1.14. For Dust2 (two map sample) and this very, very small sample, it is Magisk with a 1.33 rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.39 IMP, and 86.4 ADR. Next, it is Device at 1.21, dupreeh at 1.16, gla1ve at 1.13 rounds it out. I think Astralis has definitely had their number in the recent past, however, I think we could easily see this match go the full distance. Dust2 is what I believe will be the key for FaZe in taking this to that third and final map, but FaZe has looked pretty bad lately, but then again, so has Astralis. Let’s talk options.
FAZE:
ANCHOR: NiKo – (He is the carry mostly, and he tops both maps and has only positive line vs Astralis)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, broky, coldzera
ASTRALIS:
ANCHOR: dupreeh – (Going with the hot-hand here, which Magisk was the hot-hand last match, but dupreeh has the numbers vs FaZe)
Top Stacking Options: dupreeh, Device, Magisk (bubz for value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: CeRq, KRIMZ, ropz, dupreeh, poizon, oSee, REZ
Top Stacks: fnatic, EG, Complexity, NiP, Astralis
Top Values: Tarik, k0nfig, floppy, coldzera, flusha, Sonic, Golden