Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO September 3
Sean Mitchell breaks down all four-matches for Thursday's ESL Pro League Season 12 CS:GO DFS Slate!
The ESL Pro League for Season 12 has begun for all regions and we have another four-match slate on tap for this Thursday! Let’s see what we have on tap!
Fnatic (Ranked 13th in World) vs Spirit (Ranked 20th in World)
In our first best of three match of the day, we have one out of the Europe region for Group B between fnatic and Spirit. Looking at the current betting odds, they bookmakers are listing both of these teams basically dead-even, but you have to lay some juice to play either side. Books are listing fnatic as -116, and Spirit at -111 on the money line, so techinically, they are favoring fnatic just a small amount in this one currently. Spirit comes into this match in quite the great form lately, as they have ravished their last five opponents with four out of their last five coming via the 2-0 sweep, the only match to come with a 2-1 winning result was likely over their toughest opponent of this stretch in the Gambit Youngsters. For fnatic, we cannot say the same, as they have only won one match in their last five, and that was a 2-1 result over Heroic. However, it is worth nothing that they have only played three total matches since coming back from their break. Nonetheless, they have been swept twice in lieu of their one win as noted above, so it has been quite a rough restart for them so far. These two squads have only played one time in 2020, and Spirit ate their souls basically in a dominating 2-0 sweep with results of 16-14 on Inferno and 16-3 on Nuke. The top performers for this match were KRIMZ for fnatic, who finished in the negative actually, but was the top fragger with 33 frags and 38 deaths, along with 9 assists. For Spirit, Chopper was the top player with 42 frags compared to just 25 deaths, with 9 assists credited to his name as well. Both Magixx and mir also had nice games in this one, with magixx fragging 43 compared to 29 deaths and 10 assists, while mir ended with 44 frags, most of the day, and 31 deaths and 8 total assists. So, we can see how good Spirit was in this one. Since we don’t have a great deal of data to analyze for head-to-head, let’s see who the top players have been lately for each squad over the last month. For fnatic (seven map sample) it is Brollan at the top with a 1.09 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.09 IMP, and 75.5 ADR. Only two others have played above average lately for them, KRIMZ is just behind Brollan at 1.08 Rating, while Golden barely meets the threshold with a 1.01 Rating also. For Spirit (23 map sample) mir has been the top player for this span with a 1.25 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 86.9 ADR. All other player options also sit above a 1.0 Rating here beginning with iDISBALANCE at 1.19, sdy at 1.12, chopper at 1.06, and lastly, magixx at 1.04. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match typically has been Vertigo for both. It can be noted that Nuke is also being banned by fnatic around 18% lately behind Vertigo, and Spirit are also banning Overpass around 12% as their next most-banned behind Vertigo. For the two typical first map choices for these two, Spirit is choosing Dust2, and fnatic have been going with Inferno quite often. I do think that these two maps do make quite a bit of sense, as fnatic almost beat Spirit on Inferno in their only prior match, and Spirit has played Dust2 the most lately as well at 16 times. So, let’s see who has played the best on these lately. For fnatic on their typical map choice of Inferno (eight map sample) KRIMZ has led here with a 1.12 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.08 IMP, and 81.4 ADR. Two others fit the bill here also with Brollan at 1.09, and flusha right on the number at 1.00. For Dust2 (three map sample) it is KRIMZ at the top once again on this very small sample sitting at 1.24 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.17 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. JW also sits at 1.24, however his DPR is 0.70 in comparison. Next, we have Brollan at 1.21, and lastly, flusha at 1.12 to round it out. For Spirit on their projected map choice of Dust2 (16 map sample) iDISBALANCE is the lead here with a 1.27 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.59 DPR, 1.32 IMP, and 80.5 ADR. He is followed be all but one here with mir at 1.15, sdy at 1.10, and Chopper at 1.06. For Inferno (six map sample) mir is the only player option to sit above a 1.0 Rating, and he sits at 1.11 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.15 IMP, and 82.0 ADR. So, we can safely say that Inferno is not a strong map for them as well. Looking over this match as a whole, I want to pull the trigger pretty hard on Spirit, but I think that fnatic could potentially win Inferno, and take this match to a third map. If they can’t win Inferno, basically it’s a 2-0 lock sweep for Spirit in my eyes. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (Leads team on both maps, pretty much their most consistent player overall)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, Brollan, Golden
ANCHOR: mir – (Has the most upside on this team and is a complete stud)
Top Stacking Options: mir, iDISBALANCE, sdy
Complexity (Ranked 9th in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 11th in World)
What a slobber-knocker of a match this should be in our second best of three match of the day between Complexity and Astralis. This one is also out of Group B as well, and also out of the Europe region. The current betting odds are listing Astralis as the favorite here and are -160 on the money line to win this match. Both of these squads are fresh off a loss, and both were swept in that event also, with Complexity losing to Heroic, and Astralis getting dealt the loss by NiP. Both teams had been on mini-win streaks prior to their reverse sweeps, as they had swept both of their prior matches beforehand. These two teams have played two total matches so far in the 2020 year, with Astralis winning the most recent match at ESL One: Road to Rio by a 2-1 result. The match before that at the BLAST Premier Spring Event, Complexity swept them 2-0. So, this series is split down the middle at 1-1 at moment. However, it is worth noting that neither one of those two prior matches featured the new faces for Astralis in es3tag or Bubzkji, so hard to go off of that data. With that said, let’s analyze who has played the best for each team over the last month. For Astralis (six map sample) newcomer es3tag is actually the top player for this span with a 1.21 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 83.5 ADR. He is followed by device and Magisk both at 1.16, dupreeh at 1.14, and lastly, Bubzjki at 1.03. For Complexity (14 map sample) it is Buff Bagwell, I mean blameF in the lead with a 1.23 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.55 DPR, 1.18 IMP, and 83.7 ADR. Poizon comes in next at 1.21, oBo at 1.16, k0nfig at 1.03, and lastly, RUSH at 0.96. Let’s see if we can project some map picks for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two include Mirage for Astralis and Overpass for Complexity. Just so happens that Complexity has been choosing Mirage as their typical first map choice lately, so this one will be gone likely. Astralis has been going with Nuke mostly as their first pick lately, while Complexity will more than likely roll with Dust2, as they have won eight-straight here lately. Need to also note that Complexity has also won roughly 81% of their last 16 attempts on Nuke as well, so Nuke really isn’t much of an edge to Astralis, actually, not really an edge at all there for them. I could potentially see Astralis play a little map strategy here and go with Inferno, as it is a map that Complexity have lost five of their last five tries on, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Astralis take that chance, but more than likely they play the map they have played the most with their two new faces in Nuke. So, lets see who has performed the best on these two lately. For Complexity on their projected map choice of Dust2 (eight map sample) it is no other than blameF at the top with a 1.40 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.53 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 89.9 ADR. K0nfig is next with a 1.26, then its oBo at 1.17, RUSH at 1.15, and lastly, poizon at 1.13. For Nuke (16 map sample) blameF once again in the lead with a 1.31 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.52 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 84.9 ADR. He is followed by oBo at 1.21, then its poizon at 1.17, k0nfig at 1.05, and RUSH ends the list at 1.01. For Astralis on their projected map choice of Nuke (5 map sample) it is Bubzjki with the best numbers for this sample (however, if we are counting a 2-map sample it is es3tag at 1.45 Rating) as he sits at 1.22 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.22 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. Next, Dupreeh sits at 1.27, Magisk at 1.23, and lastly, device at 1.13. I am not going to list the individuals for Astralis on Dust2, as they have only played it once in the last three months, so the numbers are skewed a bit. This match should be interesting. Part of me loves Complexity in this one, as they are the more well-versed and experienced team as a whole lately and have been damn good as well. Astralis has shown really nice flashes as they took care of business before the shocking reverse sweep to NiP. I think Nuke is going to be the deciding map here, and if Astralis can pull off the win on it, they could have a shot to win this match. However, I think Complexity likely gets the win in this one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: blameF – (Shouldn’t need a reason)
Top Stacking Options: blameF, oBo, poizon
ANCHOR: es3tag – (He is new, but he has played at a very high level after lately after a slow start)
Top Stacking Options: es3tag, Dupreeh, Bubzjki
Gen.G (Ranked 17th in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 50th in World)
Our third best of three match for today is one in the North America Region for this event between Gen.G and Triumph. Gen.G surprisingly comes in as quite a heavy favorite for this match at the books being listed as a -310 favorite to win this match. Neither one of these teams come into this match in great form, as Gen.G have dropped their last three matches played, including being swept twice, while Triumph has lost four of their last five matches played as well. These squads have faced off twice in 2020, with Gen.G claiming both matches by a 2-1 result. However, it is also important to note that Grim was still playing for Triumph for both of these matches, so somewhat hard to analyze with the loss of such a talented player as Grim. With that said, instead of analyzing those recent matches, we will look at who has performed the best over the last month or so. For Gen.G (five map sample) koosta has played the best over this span since returning from break with a 1.19 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.30 IMP, and 89.3 ADR. S0m is next at 1.14, BnTeT sits at 1.01, autimatic at 0.89 and lastly, daps at 0.84. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps lately for these two squads just so happen to also be the first maps typically chosen lately for both as well in Train and Overpass. Thus, meaning we should see some secondary map choices for these two teams. The next most-picked maps for each team include Mirage for Gen.G around 20% picked, and Nuke for Triumph around 24%. I do believe we could easily see these two maps chosen as the maps to be played in this match as well. However, we may not have a lot of data to go off of, but we will see who has performed the best on these two over the last three months. For Gen.G on their projected map choice of Mirage (four map sample) interestingly enough it is s0m at the top for this small sample with a 1.16 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.71 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 83.0 ADR. Only one other follows him here and that is autimatic at 1.01. For Nuke (5 map sample) koosta is the lead here lately with a 1.30 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.33 IMP, and 96.2 ADR. Two others meet the requirements here with both BnTeT and autimatic at 1.10. For Triumph on their projected map choice of Nuke (14 maps for original members and 5 for penny, and just 1 for moose) Junior leads this one with a 1.27 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.53 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 74.6 ADR. Penny in the five maps played is the only other player option to eclipse the 1.0 Rating and he sits at 1.05 for this sample. I really hate to think that Gen.G is a 3-to-1 favorite over any team in CS:GO, and honestly, I don’t think they should be. Do I believe they could 2-0 this match? Sure. I think Triumph has had a few matches under their belt now however, and this match should be closer than the books are showing. Think there is definitely a smidge of contrarian value on Triumph in this match. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: koosta – (Best numbers over last month, and rates out well on Nuke)
Top Stacking Options: koosta, autimatic, s0m (BnTeT value)
ANCHOR: Junior – (AWP plays well on Nuke and he is their best player by a decent margin)
Top Stacking Options: Junior, moose, Penny
G2 (Ranked 5th in World) vs GODSENT (ranked 25th in World)
In our final best of three match of the day, we have another out of the Europe region, however this one between G2 and GODSENT is for Group A play. The current betting odds are favoring G2 decently heavy, as they are listed as -240 on the money line to win this match. G2 has been on quite the roll lately, winning four of their last five matches, with their only loss being a 1-2 result against Heroic. GODSENT were not dealt the best beginning match for this Event, as they matched up against NaVi in their first round where they were dealt a 0-2 reverse sweep. I need to remind that this was their first match back since July 3rd, so they were off for a decent break and the rust factor is usually a thing when returning to competitive CS:GO in these top-tier events. These two teams have played twice so far in 2020, with them splitting the matches 1-1 as both had their respective sweeps of each opponent in these matches. Since we do have four maps to analyze, let’s see who performed the best for this sample. For G2, only two player options recorded a positive stat-line for this sample, nexa and JaCkz. Nexa was the best by quite a margin with a +19 K-D Diff, 1.27 K-D, and 1.31 Rating. JaCkz being the only other positive with a +4 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, and 1.09 Rating. For GODSENT, only two player options sit with positive stat-lines for them as well, starting with STYKO at +17 K-D Diff, 1.25 K-D, and 1.13 Rating. Next, Farlig recorded a +13 K-D diff, 1.15 K-D, and 1.18 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The two first ban maps for these two include Mirage for GODSENT, and Overpass for G2. The two first chosen map choices for these two lately include Dust2 for G2 and Nuke for GODSENT. I could see G2 go with either Dust2 or Vertigo. I know Vertigo is literally neck-and-neck in terms of percentage chosen for first map with Dust2. Seeing as how G2 beat them 16-6 on Vertigo on the only attempt they played it in the two prior matches, I would think we will see it over Dust2, so let’s see who has performed the best lately on Nuke and Vertigo. For GODSENT on their projected map choice of Nuke (five map sample) STYKO is the lead guy here with a 1.32 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.39 IMP, and 87.5 ADR. After him, Farlig is next at 1.18, and then its zehN at 1.02, and Maden ends the list right at the mark of 1.00. For Vertigo (two map sample) STYKO at the top again on this very short sample with a 1.19 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.73 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 87.1 ADR. zehN at 1.11 is next, followed by Maden alone at 1.00 once again to round it out. For G2 on their projected map choice of Vertigo (four map sample) nexa has been excellent here for this sample with a 1.42 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 0.52 DPR, 1.38 IMP, and 88.2 ADR. jaCkz follows next at 1.32, then its huNter- at 1.19, kennyS at 1.15, and lastly, AmaNEk at 1.00. For Nuke (10 map sample) once again nexa in the top spot with a 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.22 IMP, and 89.6 ADR. Next, its huNter- at 1.12, jaCkz, kennyS, and AmaNEk at 1.03 to round out the list. I do believe the books are correct in favoring G2, but I think we do see a much better showing in this match from GODSENT than we saw in their opener. They were quite embarrassed I would assume, and well, let’s just be real – G2 loves to blow leads and this has always been their downfall, so don’t be shocked to see GODSENT steal a map, or come out hot and firing after their reverse sweep. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: nexa – (Leads both maps and has played very well lately)
Top Stacking Options: nexa, kennyS, huNter-/jaCkz
ANCHOR: STYKO – (Tops both projected maps and should be a nice contrarian capt pick)
Top Stacking Options: STYKO, Farlig, zehN
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: mir, blameF, nexa, STYKO, es3tag
Top Stacks: Spirit, G2, Complexity, GODSENT
Top Values: Chopper, oBo, poizon, jaCkz, sdy, s0m, zehN, Junior, Golden