Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO August 26
Sean Mitchell breaks down all three matches for Wednesday's CS:GO ESL One DFS Slate!
We continue to move closer to the playoffs in the ESL One Cologne 2020 Event for all regions and we have another three-match CS:GO DFS slate on tap for Wednesday! Let’s dive in.
MAD Lions (Ranked 25th in World) vs OG (Ranked 13th in World)
The first best of three match on today’s slate is a semi-finals match out of Group A in the Europe region. The current betting odds are listing OG as a slight -155 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams have played a few in-betweener matches since their last match in this Event, and MAD have actually turned theirs into a little win streak sitting at three-straight matches won after suffering their opening round 0-2 loss to Complexity. OG won their opening match against NiP, however, stumbled in their most recent match in the second-round against Sprout, and this placed them in this semi-finals match against MAD. These two squads have only played one best of three match in 2020, and this is their only match to date, and it was won in a 2-0 fashion by the MAD Lions as a result. The top performers in this match were mantuu and NBK- for OG, who both recorded +7 K-D diffs, mantuu edged out the Rating at 1.23 compared to NBK-‘s 1.09, and but shared around a 78.0 ADR as well. For MAD, it was acoR who had the best game with a +15 K-D diff, 1.25 Rating, and 78.3 ADR, but it was roeJ who finished with a higher Rating at 1.33, and ADR at 90.1, but a smidge lower on the K-D diff at +13. I need to remind that this match did include Bubzkji, and HUNDEN, who are both no longer with the team. So, let’s take a look at who has performed well over the last month for both of these teams for some further analyzation. Over the last month for OG (24 map sample) Valde is still sitting with the highest Rating at 1.11, 0.70 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.11 IMP, and 76.4 ADR. He is followed up by mantuu at 1.08, ISSAA at 1.07, Aleksib at 1.03, and lastly, NBK- at 0.95. For MAD (13 map sample) it has been the top fragger in their lone match in acoR as well with a 1.19 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.24 IMP, and 79.4 ADR. Next after him is newcomer in innocent at 1.13, sjuush at 1.12, roeJ at 1.12 also, and finally, AcilioN at 0.85. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Vertigo for OG, and Dust2 for MAD Lions. Their typical first map choices lately have been Inferno for OG, who are also riding a 5-map winning streak there, and Mirage for MAD Lions. I do believe that these are the two maps we see in this match, so let’s see who the top players were on these two maps lately. For MAD on their projected map of Mirage (eight map sample over L3 months) it is no other than acoR in the lead with a 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 0.80 ADR. Two others fit the bill here behind him with roeJ at 1.06, and sjuush at 1.02 rounds it out. For Inferno (three map sample) this hasn’t exactly been a good map for MAD, as they do not have one player option over a 1.0 Rating over this sample, and acoR is the closest at 0.98 Rating. For OG on their projected map choice of Inferno (15 map sample) valde is the top player here for this sample with a 1.23 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.15 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. He is followed by mantuu at 1.17, ISSAA at 1.14, NBK- at 1.09, and lastly, Aleksib at 1.03. For Mirage (16 map sample) it is valde again in the lead spot with a 1.11 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 75.4 ADR. Three others fit the bill here beginning with mantuu at 1.09, ISSAA at 1.02, and Aleksib finishes it out at 1.01. I really think this match could easily go three maps. I think that OG will likely win Inferno, and I think MAD will take Mirage and I think the decider map could be something like Nuke, in which favors neither in terms of success rate, but OG has played it 17 times lately, compared to just six for MAD. So, with that said, I think I have to give a small edge here to OG. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: acoR – (No reason to not capt him if you are playing MAD)
Top Stacking Options: acoR, roeJ, sjuush
ANCHOR: valde – (Sticking with the hot-hand lately, and he has played really well)
Top Stacking Options: valde, mantuu, NBK-
FaZe (Ranked 12th in World) vs Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World)
The second best of three match for this slate is also a semi-finals match but is out of the lower bracket for Group B in the Europe region between FaZe and Vitality. The current betting odds are listing Vitality as a small -150 favorite on the money line to win this match. FaZe got smacked in their opening match of this Event at the hands of Heroic in a 0-2 result, and then turned around in their next match and dealt MIBR a 2-1 result in a win. Vitality opened their first round with a 2-0 sweep over Heretics, and then were humbled quite nicely at the hands of the new-look Astralis in an 0-2 reverse sweep. We do have some decently extensive head-to-head matches between these two, and we have seen these two play three times already in 2020. FaZe holds the 2020 H2H series lead at 2-1, as they have swept Vitality once, beat them 2-1 also, however, it was Vitality that swept FaZe in their most recent match. Since we do have a good amount of data to analyze for these two in terms of head-to-head, let’s see who the top performers were for the matches played in 2020 against each other. For FaZe (seven map sample) NiKo is alone at the top by a decent margin sitting with a +30 K-D Diff, 1.25 K-D, and 1.22 Rating. Both Coldzera and Broky are both in the positives as well, however, both K-D diffs are under +10. For Vitality (seven map sample) no shocker here as it is only ZywOo sitting with a positive stat-line for this sample sitting at +24 K-D diff, 1.19 K-D, and 1.19 Rating also. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
Just looking over their last three matches all played in 2020, we can see that Nuke has shown up all three times, and Dust2 has shown up twice as well. The first two typical bans are Vertigo for FaZe, and Train for Vitality, and these two have been the bans for the last three matches. It was interesting to see FaZe get away from their typical first choice map in Mirage over their last two matches but seeing as how they are barely hitting 30% in wins on it lately could be a factor. Nuke is a map that has always been good to Vitality, and it is typically their first choice, if not for Dust2. I can’t see these teams trying get cute, and I feel it will be any combo of Nuke, Dust2, and Mirage. I could easily see FaZe go back to Mirage, But if Vitality goes Nuke first, they likely go with Dust2. I just feel that both of these teams know their strengths are on those two maps, and I feel decently confident we see them again here in this one. Let’s see who has played the best on Nuke and Dust2 lately. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Dust2 (10 map sample) NiKo leads the team here with a 1.19 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 80.8 ADR. He is followed by the rest of his squad here as well, as both Kjaerbye and broky sit at 1.10, Colzera at 1.09, and finally Rain at 1.04. For Nuke (12 map sample) NiKo once again the top player sitting with a 1.12 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.75 DPR, 1.37 IMP, and 87.0 ADR. Only one other teammate follows him here and that is Kjaerbye with a 1.03. For Vitality on their projected map choice of Nuke (13 map sample) we already know it’s zywOo at the top with a 1.31 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.41 IMP, and 85.7 ADR. All others meet the criteria here as well starting with apEX at 1.13, RpK at 1.11, shox at 1.06, and lastly, misutaaa at 1.01. For Dust2 (15 map sample) it is ZywOo again with a 1.25 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.30 IMP, and 84.1 ADR. All others are in the mix here also, starting with RpK at 1.10, shox at 1.08, apEX at 1.06, and misutaaa bringing up the rear once again at 1.00. Much like the first match, this one could also go the full distance and see three maps, but I do have to side with Vitality, who should be looking to bounce-back pretty hard after getting throttled by Astralis in their most recent match. I am likely going to be eating some chalk on this one with Vitality. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: NiKo – (I think both capt spots are fairly easy for both teams in this match, and numbers support)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, Coldzera, broky
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (No explanation needed)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, apEX
Liquid (Ranked 8th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 21st in World)
Our third and final best of three match for the ESL One Event today is a Group B decider match in the North America region between Liquid and Cloud9. There is currently no betting line posted for this match for some reason, however, I do believe we should and could see Liquid around a -180 favorite or so on the money line to win this match if I am predicting a line. Liquid likely have a bad taste in their mouth after getting swept by Evil Geniuses in their most recent match for this Event, while Cloud9 got back on track after getting beat by Liquid in the opener 2-1, against Triumph who they beat 2-1 as well. These two teams have played three total times so far in 2020, with Liquid winning two of the three, while we also saw two of the three matches go the full distance as well. Two of the prior matches before their most recent were without Grim for Liquid as well, so that does change a few things. Either way, Let’s take a look at the seven-map sample for this year for these two in terms of head-to-head. For Liquid, it was pretty much all EliGe and NAF with the best numbers of the team before the Grim addition, as EliGe sits with a +25 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, and 1.22 Rating, while NAF sits with a +24 K-D diff, 1.19 K-D, and 1.19 Rating as well. For Cloud9, it is oSee with the best numbers by a decent margin for this sample with a +22 K-D diff, 1.15 K-D, and 1.15 Rating. Just wanted to point out that Stewie2k had an absolute match in their most recent match going +28 with a 77-49 K-D, 1.46 Rating, and 95.8 ADR. oSee was the only C9 player with a positive stat-line as well to boot. Let’s look at some projected maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two include Train for Liquid and Mirage for Cloud9. Cloud9 is picking Overpass with their first map choice the most lately, and they are carrying a 5-map winning streak there as well in that frame. The first pick for Liquid shows to be Nuke, but they have a pretty decently large map pool. In the three matches played in 2020, we saw Nuke twice, Overpass twice, and Vertigo twice, so with that said, this match could literally have a wide-range combination of maps. I don’t exactly feel comfy trying to pin-point two for this match, as it shows that these teams aren’t exactly set on their typical map choices. So, I am not going to try to project of this match, however, I do think we see either Overpass, Nuke, Vertigo, or even Mirage as Liquid likes it as well quite a bit. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: EliGe – (I don’t mind even going with NAF here)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, Twistzzz (Stewie2K is a value)
ANCHOR: oSee – (Best numbers against Liquid and lately)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, motm
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: zywOo, NiKo, valde, EliGe/NAF, oSee
Top Stacks: OG, Vitality, Liquid
Top Values: apEX, acoR, coldzera, floppy, motm