Welcome back to another edition of the Fantasy Alarm CS:GO DFS Playbook! For Saturday, we have another three-match slate in the ESL One Cologne 2020 Event. Let’s get into the playbook!
MATCH 1
Sprout (Ranked 40th in World) vs OG (Ranked 12th in World)
In our first best of three matchup of the slate, we have a group A upper-bracket semi-finals match between Sprout and OG. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, and we have OG listed as a -225 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams were winners in their opening rounds of Group A play, as Sprout rooted BIG in a 2-0 sweep, while OG out-lasted NiP in a 2-1 decision. Sprout has played two matches since the defeat of BIG, dropping both to AGO and HAVU in 1-2 endings. These two teams have played just one time in 2020, with OG coming out the winner with a 2-1 decision. They won 16-12 on Nuke, and 16-5 on Train to complete the 2-1 win, only losing Mirage 16-7 to Sprout. Since we do have one match to analyze, let’s see who the top performers for this match were. For Sprout, faveN led the team by a good margin, as he was the only positive player for them sitting at 60-47 K-D, with a 1.16 Rating, and 81.6 ADR. For OG, it was Valde and mantuu both with good lines, Valde with a 64-47 K-D, and mantuu with a 60-44 K-D. Both had Ratings over 1.23 and ADRs over 83 as well. Since we just have the one match with little data, let’s see who the top performers were over the last month of play. For Sprout (17 map sample) snatchie claims the top spot sitting with a 1.12 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 74.1 ADR. After him, it’s faven at 1.11, dycha at 1.06, Spiidi at 0.99, and lastly, denis at 0.91. For OG (21 map sample) valde has been the top play over the last month, sitting with a 1.11 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.08 IMP, and 76.1 ADR. After him, its ISSAA and mantuu both at 1.07, aleksib at 1.05, and lastly, NBK- at 0.99. Let’s take a look for some projected maps.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Vertigo for OG, and Overpass for Sprout. The two typical first maps selected by these two teams include Mirage for Sprout, and Inferno for OG. OG also comes in with a four-map winning streak on Inferno to boot, and they are winning this map at a 71% success rate over their last 14 tries. Sprout holds a bit of an edge on their map selection of Mirage as well, as they are winning this map roughly 60% over their last 23 attempts, compared to just 44% for OG out of their last 16 tries. I do think these two maps are the ones most likely chosen for the first two maps, so let’s see the best performers on these two lately. For Sprout on their projected map choice of Mirage (23 map sample) faveN is at the top of this one with a 1.19 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 77.7 ADR. Three others meet the requirements here as well, starting with dycha at 1.11, spiidi at 1.09, and lastly snatchie at 1.04. For Inferno (14 map sample) denis is the lead here with a 1.13 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.24 IMP, and 81.5 ADR. All other options follow here with snatchie at 1.11, faveN at 1.10, Spiidi at 1.02, and dycha at 1.01 to round it out. For OG on their projected map choice of Inferno (14 map sample) valde is the top performer here with a 1.22 rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.10 IMP, and 84.1 ADR. All others also fit the bill here with mantuu next at 1.18, ISSAA at 1.13, NBK- at 1.11, and finally, aleksib at 1.05. For Mirage (16 map sample) it is valde once again in the lead with a 1.11 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 75.4 ADR. Three others follow with mantuu next again at 1.09, ISSAA at 1.02, and finally aleksib at 1.01 to end the list. I like this match, I think that Sprout aren’t as good and tactically-sound as OG is, and I do think OG could end this match in two maps. I like OG here to win as well. Let’s talk options.
SPROUT:
ANCHOR: faveN – (Best overall numbers, rates out on top on their map choice also)
Top Stacking Options: faveN, snatchie, dycha
OG:
ANCHOR: valde – (Leads both maps, and has best numbers over last month, just playing really well lately)
Top Stacking Options: valde, mantuu, ISSAA
MATCH 2
Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World) vs Astralis (Ranked 17th in World)
In our second best of three match, we have the upper-bracket semi-finals match out of group B play with Vitality and Astralis. It was not so long ago, it was Astralis in the top 5 World-ranked squads, and Vitality was in the top 15, and now this has been switched. The current betting odds are favoring both of these teams on the money line, as you will have to lay some juice on either team. Astralis is actually listed as the bigger favorite sitting at -125 on the money line, however, to play Vitality you will also have to lay -105 on the money line. This is a pretty sure way to say that the books really don’t know who will win this match. Astralis looked dominant in their return to top-tier play in their first round against fnatic, sweeping them in a 2-0 result. Vitality dealt a sweep of their own to team Heretics as well, and now we seem these two face-off in this upper-bracket semi-finals match. The addition of Bubzkji was quite noticeable in his debut for Astralis, as he was the top player on the team with a 47-36 K-D, with a 1.25 Rating, and 85.2 ADR. Quite the debut for his new squad. It was not so much the same story for the debut of es3tag, who is also a new face for Astralis, as he finished with the only negative stat-line for the team. These two teams do have quite a bit of history against each other, of course with the original Astralis roster, but we can see who played the best against each other in those prior matches for the players still on the roster. We have an eight-map sample, for Vitality, as we can assume, ZywOo is the only player for them to have a positive stat-line for this sample sitting at +7 K-D diff, 1.05 K-D, and 1.12 Rating. For Astralis, Device is clearly the top guy against Vitality and his numbers show it - +57 K-D Diff, 1.42 K-D, and 1.33 Rating for him over the eight-map sample. Dupreeh also has a good stat-line as well, sitting with a +24 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.17 Rating. Let’s project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these squads include Mirage for Astralis, and Train for Vitality. The typical first maps selected for these two include Nuke for both, with Dust2 also being a popular first pick for Vitality as well. I do think we see these two maps for this match, so let’s see who the top performers are for these maps. For Vitality on their map choice of Dust2 (14 map sample) It is no other than ZywOo at 1.28 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 84.9 ADR. Next, it is RpK at 1.12, shox at 1.10, apEX a 1.06, and lastly, misutaaa at 1.03. For Nuke (12 map sample) ZywOo once again in the lead with a 1.37 rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.46 IMP, and 88.8 ADR. Second is apEX at 1.17, RpK at 1.13, shox at 1.05, and misutaaa rounds it out once again at 1.03. For Astralis on their map choice of Nuke (five map sample) device is the top guy here with a 1.21 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.34 IMP, and 82.1 ADR. Dupreeh comes in next at 1.17, Bubzkji at 1.16, and Magisk at 1.03. For Dust2, I will not be providing at stats, as Astralis has only played this map one time over the last three months. I was impressed with the win for Astralis over fnatic, but I will also say that fnatic isn’t exactly a dominant team like they once were. This Vitality team is ranked 2nd in the World for a reason, and I think they get the win in this match on the back of ZywOo. Let’s talk options.
VITALITY:
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (too easy, and will be chalk, but we know the upside)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, RpK
ASTRALIS:
ANCHOR: device – (still the main carry for this squad, and rates out well on maps)
Top Stacking Options: device, Bubzkji, Dupreeh
MATCH 3
FURIA (Ranked 6th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 15th in World)
In our final best of three match of the slate, we have a Group A elimination match between FURIA and Gen.G. The current betting odds are listing FURIA as a -235 favorite on the money line to win this match. FURIA was stunned in their most recent match, falling with a 0-2 reverse sweep to team Chaos, and Gen.G caught a defeat of their own, but at least took 100 Thieves the full distance of three-maps before falling 1-2. FURIA won their opening match against Liquid, but the loss to Chaos is what placed them here in this elimination match against Gen.G, who have dropped both of their last two matches to 100T and Evil Geniuses. These two teams are very familiar with each other, already playing a good number of matches in 2020. FURIA swept them in their most recent match, but Gen.G had won the three prior matches leading up to that point. Since we do have a good bit of map data to go off of for these two teams, let’s list the top performers for each team against each other. For FURIA (10 map sample) yuurih has the best numbers, and it is his top numbers against any team for the year of 2020 so far, as he sits with a +41 K-D diff, 1.24 K-D, and 1.20 Rating. Both KSCERATO and HEN1 also sit with positive stat-lines against Gen.G but much smaller. For Gen.G (ten maps also) autimatic has the best overall numbers against FURIA, as he sits with a +7 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, and 1.00 Rating. Both BnTeT and Koosta also have positive stat-lines, but both under +5 K-D diff for this sample. Let’s project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Dust2 for FURIA, and Overpass for Gen.G. FURIA continues to pick Vertigo as their first map selection, while Gen.G is and always will be a big fan of Train. I think we should see no issues with these two maps and feel they could be the maps we see. Let’s see who the top players are lately for these two maps. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Vertigo (11 map sample) arT and his AWP potential claim the top spot here lately with a 1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.52 IMP, and 85.5 ADR. Next, yuurih sits at 1.16, KSCERATO at 1.13, HEN1 at 1.07 ends the list here. For Train (five map sample) yuurih has quite the best numbers here for the short sample sitting with a 1.32 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.42 IMP, and 91.7 ADR. Two others follow in KSCERATO at 1.18, and arT at 1.13 to round out the list. For Gen.G on their projected map choice of Train (eight map sample) it is autimatic all alone as the top guy and only guy above a 1.00 rating here lately, as he sits with a 1.04 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.73 DPR, 1.05 IMP, and 75.2 ADR. For Vertigo (six map sample) BnTeT has been really good here over this sample with a 1.19 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.71 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 87.5 ADR. Two others fit the bill here as well, starting with autimatic at 1.13, and lastly, s0m at 1.07. I think this is a nice spot for FURIA to bounce-back, and it’s a familiar foe. Gen.G really just isn’t that great of a team, and they are likely one of the bottom teams in the North America region. FURIA will likely be chalk, but its likely for good reason. Let’s talk options.
FURIA:
ANCHOR: Yuuirh – (Best numbers vs Gen.G, and rates out well for both projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: yuurih, KSCERATO, arT (HEN1 is always in play, but arT been better lately)
GEN.G
ANCHOR: BnTeT – (If you are feeling froggy enough to play Gen.G, its BnTeT or autimatic at cpt)
Top Stacking Options: BnTeT, autimatic, Koosta
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, yuurih, device, valde
Top Stacks: FURIA, OG, Vitality
Top Values: faveN, dupreeh, autimatic, ISSAA, koosta, BnTeT