Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO August 21
Sean Mitchell breaks down all three matches for Friday's CS:GO DFS ESL One slate!
We have another 3-match slate for CS:GO DFS in the ESL One Event for this Friday starting at 9:00 AM ET! Let’s get this rolling!
MAD Lions (Ranked 23rd in World) vs Mousesports (Ranked 14th in World)
Our first best of three match is one from the lower-bracket in Group A play between MAD and Mouse. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, Mouse are favored and are listed at -210 on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams were losers in their first matches, ultimately placing them here in this lower-bracket match for their group. MAD were swept quite easily by Complexity, while Mouse took a once number one World ranked NaVi into three maps, where they faulted pretty good in the final map to lose it with a 1-2 result. Both teams have not been great in recent form, even before their break, as both have lost all four of their prior four matches, with MAD losing all five. These two teams have played each other a number of times in this calendar year, and it is Mouse that leads the series with eight-map wins to just four for MAD. I love when we have lots of recent data to go off of in terms of head-to-head, so we can analyze top performers. So, with that said, let’s see who played well against each other. Remember, MAD is also without Bubzjki as well, as he is now on Astralis. For MAD (13 map sample) interestingly enough, the only player still on the active roster for them to have a positive stat-line against Mouse is AcillioN, as he sits with a +8 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.15 Rating. All others (excluding innocent) are in the negative. For Mouse (13 map sample) it is Woxic that leads the team with the best overall numbers, sitting at +61 K-D, 1.41 K-D, and 1.29 Rating. Ropz and Frozen also have good numbers, as Ropz sits at +53 K-D Diff, 1.32 K-D, and 1.21 Rating, and Frozen sits at +45 K-D Diff, 1.28 K-D, and 1.25 Rating. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Dust2 for MAD, and Overpass for Mouse. The two typical first maps chosen for these two include Train for Mouse and Mirage for MAD. Mouse gets a bump with Train, as MAD have been on a four-match skid there, and Mirage is a map that Mouse have not played much lately, so it does give MAD just the slightest of edges. I do think we can reasonably project these two maps to be chosen, so let’s see who has performed the best on these over the last three months. For MAD on their projected map choice of Mirage (nine map sample) acoR has been the top play here with his AWP, sitting at 1.17 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.25 IMP, and 77.0 ADR. He is the only player option for MAD to top a 1.0 Rating here. For Train (seven maps) innocent has actually played 20 maps here over this span with his former team, and he sits at the top with a 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.17 IMP, and 84.1 ADR. The only other option to play above average here lately is acoR at 1.13 Rating. For Mouse on their projected map choice of Train (eight map sample) ropz is the lead here with a 1.24 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.32 IMP, and 84.8 ADR. He is followed by woxic at 1.04, and frozen at 1.00. For Mirage (two map sample) ropz at the top again on the short sample, with a 1.31 rating, 0.85 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.26 IMP, and 90.1 ADR. Only one other follows him here and that is woxic at 1.09. I do think Mouse wins this match, I just don’t think that MAD Lions are working well enough together with the departure of Bubzkji, as he left quite a big void in this team. Mouse has not been exactly my first choice of a team to rely on, but they are the better team at the time. Do I think they are a two-to-one favorite? Likely not. If MAD can string together a win on Mirage, this could easily go three maps. MAD will likely be the leverage on this slate, as I know Mouse will be popular. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: acoR – (He is their most consistent player now, and when he is on with the AWP it is a site to see)
Top Stacking Options: acoR, innocent, sjuush
ANCHOR: ropz – (No doubt about it, he leads both projected maps, and has great numbers against MAD)
Top Stacking Options: ropz, woxic, frozen
MIBR (Ranked 16th in World) vs FaZe (Ranked 10th in World)
Our second best of three match for the day is one out of the B group lower-bracket, and it features MIBR against FaZe. Looking at the current betting lines, FaZe is getting quite a bit of love at the books as they are listed as a -230 favorite on the money line to win this match. As mentioned above, both of these squads were losers in their first rounds, so they were placed here in the lower-bracket to face each other. FaZe was swept by Heroic in a 0-2 decision, while MIBR was wrecked as well by G2 by an 0-2 result. Now that both of these teams hopefully shook a bit of rust off after their break, this match should be much better than their opening matches. These two teams have only faced off one time, and that was back in 2019. It was a best of one series at the ESL Pro League Season 10, and MIBR was the victor 16-12 on Mirage. Since this was quite a while ago, we will look at the past three months of individual data for these two teams to see who was performing the best. For MIBR (45 map sample) FalleN is the top play for this span, as he sits with a 1.11 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.10 IMP, and 75.4 ADR. He is followed very close by kNgV- at 1.11 as well, and fer at 1.06 to round it out. For FaZe (43 map sample) it is NiKo at the top with a 1.14 rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.69 DPR, 1.25 IMP, and 84.2 ADR. Three others follow with at least a 1.0 Rating or better, starting with broky at 1.08, coldzera at 1.05, and lastly, rain at 1.00. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for this match include Nuke for MIBR and Vertigo for FaZe. The two typical first maps chosen lately have been Mirage for FaZe, and Train for MIBR. MIBR love Mirage, so I think that will be an easy one, and I also think they are comfy enough with Train as well, as it is their highest percentage map chosen for their first pick. So, can reasonably assume we see these two maps in this match. Let’s see who the top players are on these maps lately. For MIBR on their projected map of Train (five map sample) kNgV- is the top guy with the short sample with a 1.35 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.55 IMP, and 88.1 ADR. He is followed by only one other, and that is FalleN at 1.09. For Mirage (three map sample) fer is the lead here with a 1.42 rating, 1.03 KPR, 0.57 DPR, 1.52 IMP, and 85.6 ADR. He is followed by kNgV- at 1.37, FalleN at 1.25, trk at 1.19, and lastly, TACO at 1.06. Need I remind that is just a three-map sample. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Mirage (seven map sample) broky is the top player here with a 1.18 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.19 IMP, and 71.8 ADR. Only one other fits the bill and that is NiKo at 1.16. For Train (four map sample) it is coldzera at the top with a 1.25 rating, 0.82 KPR, 0.61 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 77.2 ADR. Next, broky sits at 1.22, NiKo at 1.10, and rain at 1.01 to round out the list. I really think this is an interesting match, and I am really needing to know if MIBR is still playing in Brazil, as I saw yesterday that their ping (internet speed) is not very good there, and that could have likely been a major issue of why they got dominated by G2. This is need-to-know info, as I like MIBR in this match, but need that info. I Think this match could see three maps if MIBR has good internet speed, as FaZe have been known to blow some leads, and to lose quite a few maps. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: kNgV- (Great numbers, very contrarian capt that can carry)
Top Stacking Options: kNgV-, FalleN, fer
ANCHOR: NiKo – (He has and likely always will be their most upside player)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, broky, coldzera
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Liquid (Ranked 9th in World)
Our third and final match of this slate is one out of the winner’s bracket for Group B, and boy, it should be a banger. Liquid has been on a roll since signing Grim to replace Nitr0, and they have been playing lights-out. The current betting odds are listing EG as the favorite for this match at -140 on the money line, and I’ll be completely honest I am shocked by that. I think this match is an even keel at best, and either one of these teams can win this match. EG has won all five of their prior five tilts, while Liquid’s only loss was a 1-2 result to FURIA, another top team in North America. These two teams have a very extensive history with each other, and it is Liquid that holds the series count with 31-map wins to EG’s 24-map wins. Since we have lots of head-to-head data (albeit the Grim signing), let’s see who the top performers were for each team recently in these head-to-heads. For EG over the last three months (seven maps vs LIQ) literally every player has done well, and that could be a huge part why EG has won the last three matches in a row. Brehze is the lead however, and he has had his best stat-lines of the last three months against Liquid, as he sits with a +33 K-D Diff, 1.32 K-D, and 1.27 Rating. For Liquid (Seven map sample) Twistzz actually has the best stat-line, however, it is in the negative at -6 K-D diff, 0.95 K-D, and 1.03 Rating. Let’s project some maps.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Train for Liquid and Overpass for EG. The first two typical maps chosen for these two include Nuke for Liquid and Inferno for EG, in which EG has won all eleven of their last eleven maps played on Inferno by the way. Nuke is also a map that EG is familiar with and played very well on, having a70% success rate their as well over their last 10 maps played. I could see Liquid throwing a curveball here and electing to go with Vertigo, as I have seen them do this before with EG. I have also seen them go with Mirage as well. Nuke is a map that EG really likes, so I think it would be somewhat hard-pressed for Liquid to pick it. I am thinking they go with Vertigo. So, I think we see Inferno and Vertigo. Let’s see who the top players are for these two maps lately. For EG on their projected map choice of Inferno (13 map sample) Ethan leads this map with a 1.32 rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.47 IMP, and 90.4 ADR. He is followed by Brehze at 1.23, CerQ at 1.20, Tarik at 1.11, and finally, Stanislaw at 1.10. For Vertigo (four map sample) Tarik surprisingly has been the best in this short-sample with a 1.06 rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.74 DPR, 0.96 IMP, and 80.7 ADR. Only one other follows here and that is Stanislaw at 1.02. For Liquid on their projected map choice of Vertigo (six map sample) Grim has been the top player in this short sample, with a 1.55 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.63 IMP, and 105.7 ADR. Stewie2k is next a 1.51, EliGe at 1.18, NAF and Twistzz round it out at 1.16. For Inferno (10 map sample) Grim is also the lead here with a 1.16 rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.12 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Twistzz is next at 1.15, and EliGe at 1.10 to end the list. I think this will be a really close match, as both of these teams are very good, and with EG being favored by the books I think it is even closer than expected. This should easily be the toughest match to predict on the slate, and I think Liquid likely wins as a dog. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: CerQ – (Guy has been a beast lately, and his numbers are excellent lately)
Top Stacking Options: CerQ, Brehze, Ethan
ANCHOR: Grim – (Leads both maps, has played well lately, but I also think EliGe is also a nice candidate)
Top Stacking Options: Grim, EliGe, Twistzz
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ropz, CerQ/Brehze, Grim/EliGe, NiKo
Top Stacks: Mouse, Liquid, EG, FaZe, MIBR
Top Values: Twistzz, woxic, kNgV-, stewie2K, acoR