Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO August 20
Sean Mitchell breaks down all three matches for Thursday's CS:GO ESL ONE DFS slate!
Apologies for my absence over the last couple of CS:GO DFS slates, as I have been a bit under-the-weather, but I am good, back and ready to crush some more DFS! Today, we get a nice three-match Slate in the ESL ONE Event, so let’s get busy!
BIG (Ranked 1st in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
In our first best of three match of the day we get a banger out of the Group A lower bracket, where BIG and NiP will face-off today. The current betting odds are listing BIG as a -190 favorite on the money line to win this match. As mentioned, both of these teams were losers in the opening rounds of this event, so as a result they are playing out of the lower-bracket for their group now. BIG had won four of their previous five before being swept by one of their arch nemesis rivals in Sprout, while NiP have been losers in four of their last five matches and have just not looked great over the past three months. Interestingly enough, these two teams have played three times in recent memory, only once in 2020 however, but twice in 2019. NiP actually hold the series with six-map wins to BIG’s just one map win in this stretch. It is worth noting that neither team have the same make-up that they did when these two played in their most recent match on 3/7/2020, as Lekr0 is no longer with NiP, but hampus is. So, with that said, we really can’t use these matches for much to analyze for this match. So, we can see who have performed the best lately instead. For BIG (12 maps over last month) XANTARES is the lead with a 1.16 rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.08 IMP, and 82.8 ADR. He is followed up by syrsoN at 1.14, tabseN at 1.09, k1to at 1.03, and lastly, tiziaN at 0.90. For NiP (45 maps over last three months, they have only played three maps in the last month) Plopski is the top guy with a 1.09 rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.10 IMP, and 76.6 ADR. Nawwk is right behind with a 1.09 rating also, REZ at 1.06, twist at 0.98, and lastly, hampus at 0.93. Let’s look at some projected map analysis.
The first two ban maps for these two include Dust2 for NiP, and Train for BIG. The two typical first map choices for these two include Overpass for NiP, and Dust2 for BIG, which we will know will be banned by NiP. The second map typically chosen for BIG is Nuke, and this is a good map for them as NiP have lost their last four straight on this one, and BIG has won close to 8-% in their last 13 tries. Overpass is also a positive for BIG, as they are on a four-map winning streak there, and Nip has only won three of their last six there. The only other map I could see NiP going with is Mirage. With BIG only playing Overpass four times, and it being their least amount played map, I think we see NiP stick with their usual pick of Overpass. So, let’s see who has performed well on Overpass and Nuke. For BIG on their projected map choice of Nuke (13 map sample) tabseN holds the best numbers here with a 1.30 rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.38 IMP, and 91.0 ADR. All others follow here with syrsoN at 1.27, XANTARES at 1.19, tiziaN at 1.16, and finally, k1to at 1.02. For Overpass (four map sample) XANTARES leads the team here with a 1.28 rating, 0.83 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 98.6 ADR. All others follow him here as well with tabseN at 1.26, tiziaN at 1.20, syrsoN at 1.04, and K1to right at the threshold of 1.00. For NiP on their projected map of Overpass (six map sample) twist the AWPer is the lead guy here with a 1.28 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 84.1 ADR. Two others make the list here and that is REZ at 1.19, and nawwk at 1.08. For Nuke (six map sample) nawwk is the top guy, and only one to make the list lately for Nuke as he sits with a 1.10 rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.12 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. I really feel like this could easily turn into a BIG 2-0 sweep. BIG is due for a major bounce-back after being swept yesterday, and NiP has not been good lately, and they will have to win their map choice, and I feel it doesn’t exactly favor them. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: XANTARES – (Most consistent, can carry on any map as well)
Top Stacking Options: XANTARES, tabseN, syrsoN (all are in play really)
ANCHOR: nawwk – (If you would to be contrarian, its either Nawwk, or Plopski, but plop will have higher ownership)
Top Stacking Options: nawwk, Plopski, twist (REZ value)
Heretics (Ranked 41st in World) vs fnatic (Ranked 8th in World)
In our second best of three match of the day, we get another loser, I mean lower-bracket round 1 for Group B however. As mentioned, these two squads were losers in their first-round matches, so now they meet in the lower bracket for this match. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, fnatic is quite the heavy favorites sitting at -400 on the money line to win this match. Let’s put this as nicely as possible, fnatic looked awful in their opener against Astralis, and we need to remember Astralis is playing with two new guys as well. Heretics had a tough draw in their first-round match as well with Vitality, and they were also swept. I think this match could be much closer than the odds are currently listed. Fnatic are an older team, with the exception of Brollan really, and Heretics are made up of mainly a younger squad. Both of these teams were off for a small bit over the last month or so, and we saw the rust a bit more in their openers than their opponents. These two teams have played one time in 2020, it went the full distance of three-maps and fnatic pulled off the 2-1 result with wins on Overpass 16-8, and Inferno 16-14. Nuke was the only map for Heretics, and they won it 16-14. Since we do have three maps of data, let’s see who played the best in that match for each team. Brollan topped the charts easily for both teams, sitting at 79-52 K-D, with a 1.42 Rating, and 93.7 ADR. Next, it was JW with a 64-53 K-D, 1.20 Rating, and 84.9 ADR. For Heretics, the top performer was Nivera with a 62-58 K-D, 1.07 Rating, and 78.0 ADR. Let’s head to the projected map analysis section for this match.
The two first usual ban maps for these two squads include Vertigo for fnatic, and Train for Heretics. The typical first map selections for these two lately include Dust2 for Heretics and Inferno for fnatic. Usually, fnatic likes to go with Train, but we see it is going to be banned. I know Heretics do like Nuke also, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go with Nuke, which is a map that fnatic hasn’t won 20% of during their last 12 tries there. I do think we see Inferno and Nuke to be flat out honest. Heretics winning over 60% on Nuke over their last eight attempts, and it just makes sense. Will I be surprised if they go with Dust2? Not really, but they also love Nuke. Let’s see who plays the best on these two maps. For Heretics on their projected map choice of Nuke (eight map sample) Nivera is the lead here with a 1.21 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.58 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 76.2 ADR. Next, it is Lucky at 1.17, Maka at 1.07, and xms rounds it out at 1.04. For Inferno (six map sample) Maka is the top player for them here with a 1.25 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.20 IMP, and 79.3 ADR. Lucky follows him here as well at 1.16, Nivera at 1.15, kioShiMa at 1.10, and lastly, xms at 1.09. For Fnatic on their projected map choice of Inferno (nine map sample) KRIMZ is the top player for Inferno with a 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.05 IMP, and 78.9 ADR. Three others follow him here with JW at 1.04, flusha at 1.03, and lastly, Brollan at 1.01. For Nuke (12 map sample) we have literally no one over the last 12 maps that has eclipsed a 1.0 rating. Woof. With that said, I really am a bit stronger on my statement above that fnatic likely should not be this high of a favorite. Both teams got back into the groove of CS:GO in their opener matches, and we should see better play out of both. I could easily see this match going three maps, and I am starting to really like the contrarian value and leverage that Heretics could potentially bring. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Nivera – (Nivera is a Nuke king, and he rates out well for Inferno also)
Top Stacking Options: Nivera, Maka, Lucky
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (KRIMZ looked good in the opener, and he played very well on Inferno also)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, JW, Brollan
Chaos (Ranked 28th in World) vs 100 Thieves (Ranked 18th in World)
Our third and final best of three is out of the winner’s bracket for Group A play between Chaos and 100T. The current betting odds are listing 100 Thieves as a -260 favorite on the money line to win this match. Chaos shocked the world and FURIA yesterday when they ousted them in a 2-0 sweep, while 100T needed three maps to barely get pasted Gen.G with a 2-1 result. I have to say, the rust factor was a thing for 100T yesterday, and if they play the way they did against Gen.G in this match against Chaos, then they may get routed 2-0 as well like FURIA did. Chaos has played a ton lately, so they are fully in play mode, and they have won three of their last four matches also. These two teams have faced-off once in 2020, with 100T dealing them a 2-0 sweep, so we also have a small revenge narrative in play here as well for Chaos. Since these teams are not the same make-up as the first time they played, we will look to the last three months of individual performances to analyze. For Chaos (92 map sample) it is Xeppaa at the top with a 1.18 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.16 IMP, and 80.4 ADR. Next, leaf sits at 1.12, vanity at 1.09, Jonji at 1.09 also, and steel rounds out the list at 10.7. For the Thieves (29 map sample) jks is the top player with a 1.25 rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 88.0 ADR. Next, we have jkaem at 1.12, Liazz at 1.09, Gratisfaction at 1.08, and lastly, AZR at 0.98. Let’s head to the projected map analysis.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Overpass for 100T and Vertigo for Chaos. The two typical first maps chosen for these two include Vertigo for 100T (but will be banned) and Nuke for Chaos. The next typical choice map for 100T is Inferno, and this has been good to them, as they have won three of their last four there. I feel pretty confident that we see Nuke and Inferno in this match, so let’s see the top performers for these two maps over the last three months. For Chaos on their projected map choice of Nuke (19 map sample) leaf has become the top guy here with a 1.19 rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.16 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Next, it is steel and Jonji both at 1.18, Xeppaa at 1.17, and vanity sits at 1.16 to round it out. For Inferno (22 map sample) the lead is Xeppaa here at 1.18 rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 80.0 ADR. After him it is steel at 1.07, leaf at 1.05, vanity at 1.02, and that ends the list. For 100 Thieves on their projected map choice of Inferno (4 map sample) jkaem leads the team in the short sample with a 1.23 rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.46 IMP, and 80.2 ADR. Followed by jks at 1.20, Gratisfaction at 1.07, and Liazz at 1.06 to round it out. For Nuke (eight map sample) we have jks at the top here with a 1.16 rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 82.7 ADR. Next, its Liazz at 1.14, and jkaem at 1.03 to end the list here. I really like Chaos here, and I know they are dogs, and mostly folks see popular names of teams like 100T, and gravitate to those players, but as mentioned above I think Chaos is a much-improved team since these two played last time, and I would not be shocked one single bit if Chaos came out with a win. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Xeppaa – (He rates well on both maps, has led the team over last month in individual numbers also)
Top Stacking Options: Xeppa, leaf, steel
ANCHOR: jks – (jks just has the most upside of the team, but I like jkaem as well for capt)
Top Stacking Options: jks, jkaem, Gratisfaction
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Xeppaa, Nivera, jks, XANTARES, KRIMZ
Top Stacks: Chaos, Heretics, BIG
Top Values: JW, K1to, nawwk, REZ, twist, Lucky, leaf