Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO August 17
Sean Mitchell breaks down all four-matches on Monday's CS:GO DFS Nine To Five 3 slate with his favorite plays, stacks, and values!
We have a lovely 4-match slate for Monday in the Nine to Five 3 Event. These are all best of three series, so multiple lineup constructions can be used with four matches for the choosing. Let’s see if we can find the plays to get us in the green for this slate!
AVEZ (Ranked 47th in World) vs Singularity (Ranked 9t5th in World)
Our first best of three match of the day starts us off in the Swiss first round. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, and the books are favoring AVEZ pretty heavily as they sit at a -333 favorite on the money line to win this match. AVEZ has been on quite a tear lately, ripping off three straight 2-0 sweeps, while winning four of their last five matches. Singularity is fresh off two defeats, one a 0-2 reverse sweep at the hands of Espada, and also a 1-2 loss to the Izako Boars, the same team AVEZ just 2-0 swept in their most recent match on Sunday. We do have a head-to-head match in this calendar year for these two squads, however it was in the Eden Arena Malta Vibes Cup 4, and it was a best of one. AVEZ pummeled Singularity to the ring of 16-4 on Vertigo. The main driving forces for AVEZ in the win were Kylar, who went 21-13 on the day with a 1.54 Rating, and 124.5 ADR. Also, KEi had a nice day as well going 18-11 with a 1.33 Rating, and 80.3 ADR. Two players for Singularity actually finished in the positive even though they only won four rounds. Remoy went 18-14 on the day with a 1.32 Rating, and 94.8 ADR, while Celrate went 17-15 with a 1.15 Rating, and 83.7 ADR. Looking at the top performers over the last month for AVEZ (70 map sample) KEi is quite the hand-full as he is playing at quite a higher level than his teammates sitting with a 1.19 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 0.68 DPR, 1.31 IMP, and 86.3 ADR. Next best is Kylar at 1.08, Markos at 1.05, byali at 1.03, with nawrot only at 0.92. For Singularity (29 map sample), also need I remind that they have a new face in flameZ, who has played less than five matches with the regular player options for them, and he actually leads the team as far as individual stats over the last month and 27 map sample. flameZ sits with a 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.25 IMP, and 82.1 ADR. Next on the list is nicoodoz at 1.12, Remoy at 1.02, Celrate at 1.00, and lastly, TOBIZ sits at a putrid 0.82. Let’s see if we can project some maps for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads include Mirage for AVEZ, and Train for Singularity. The typical first map choices for these two lately include Overpass for AVEZ, and Nuke for Singularity. AVEZ have quite the track-record on both of these maps honestly and are on a seven-map win streak on their typical first map choice of Overpass. Nuke is also a map they have played a ton, 22 times a piece for both Overpass and Nuke to be exact, and they are also winning Nuke roughly 65% of the time in those 22 tries. I do think we see these two maps and am decently confident that this is how it plays out. Let’s see who the top performers are for each map for these teams. For AVEZ on their projected map choice of Overpass (22 map sample) it is no other than KEi sitting with a 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.26 IMP, and 85.0 ADR. Three others sit above a 1.0 Rating here as well, beginning with Kylar at 1.12, Markos at 1.10, and byali at 1.09 to round it out. For Nuke (22 map sample) it is KEi once again with a 1.19 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.72 DPR, 1.36 IMP, and 90.1 ADR. Only two follow KEi here, Markos at 1.11, and Kylar at 1.06 are those two. For Singularity on their projected map choice of Nuke (5-7 map sample) flameZ is the top guy on Nuke in only a 5-map sample, but sits with a 1.30 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.45 IMP, and 89.9 ADR. Only one other option follows him here, and that is Celrate at 1.01. For Overpass (seven map sample) it is flameZ once again sitting at 1.19 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.70 DPR, 1.37 IMP, and 83.0 ADR. Three others fit the bill here for Singularity, starting with nicoodoz at 1.12, Remoy at 1.11, and Celrate at 1.01. I am just going to say that on paper, AVEZ should be an easy 2-0 here. Singularity just acquired their best player literally, and it seems that things have not exactly going swimmingly for them yet. They may still be building chemistry, and this could take some time for professional players. I have to side with the chalk and AVEZ here, and I like them quite a bit. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: KEi – (This kid is a stud, no doubting that)
Top Stacking Options: KEi, Kylar, Markos
ANCHOR: flameZ – (He is the new guy, but his numbers tell the story, and he’s by far their top performer)
Top Stacking Options: flameZ, nicoodoz, Celrate
FATE (Ranked 36th in World) vs Izako Boars (Ranked 61st in World)
In our second best of three match, we have another Swiss round 1 clash between FATE and Izako Boars. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, and FATE is the favorite in this one and they are listed at -195 on the money line to win it as well. FATE is fresh off a 2-0 sweep over ECLOT (Never heard of this team), but prior to this sweep they had lost the two matches before. The Boars are fresh off an 0-2 reverse sweep to AVEZ but were on a four-match winning streak before ceding the loss to AVEZ, in which showcased a couple decent wins over Singularity 2-1, and Winstrike in a 25-21 Double OT thriller in a best of one series. These two teams in this match do have a little history to analyze, so that is always a plus. However, it has been merely one-sided in those head-to-heads in the favor of FATE with them winning five of the six maps played. They have played three total matches in 2020, with FATE winning both best of threes, one by the sweep, and also winning a best of one by a 16-7 result on Train. Since we have six maps of data, let’s see who performed the best for each teams in these matches. For FATE (six map sample) mar is the top guy against the Boars sitting with a +49 K-D diff, 1.58 K-D, and 1.44 Rating (his best numbers against any team in terms of K-D and Rating over the last calendar year). Two others for FATE have really good numbers also, with h4rn sitting with a +38 K-D diff, 1.54 K-D, and 1.29 Rating. Also, blocker sits with a +30 K-D diff, 1.31 K-D, and 1.41 Rating. For the Boars (six map sample) Let’s just say that siuhy leads the team with a -5 K-D diff, 0.95 K-D, and 0.99 Rating. The rest of the team is not great. Let’s look at projected map analysis for this match.
The first two typical ban maps for these two teams include Mirage for the Boars, and Nuke for FATE. The first typical map choices for these two include Train for FATE, and Vertigo for the Boards. I don’t see any issues with both teams getting their map choices here, as both are banning their usual ban maps over 70% for both teams. So, let’s see the top performers for Train and Vertigo lately. For FATE on their projected map choice of Train (27 map sample) h4rn is the lead guy here with a 1.19 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.56 DPR, 1.15 IMP, and 72.3 ADR. Mar is next with a 1.17, blocker at 1.07, Patrick at 1.05, and lastly, niki1 at 1.00. For Vertigo (13 map sample) it is Patrick in the top spot for this one, sitting with a 1.07 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.73 DPR, 1.21 IMP, and 82.6 ADR. Only two others make the list here for FATE, and they both sit at 1.04 – mar and h4rn. For the Boars on their projected map pick of Vertigo (16 map sample) siuhy leads the team with a 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.71 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 75.3 ADR. Two others fit the bill here, Szejn sits at 1.05, and avis at 1.02. For Train (15 map sample) it is Szejn at the top of this one with a 1.17 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 85.1 ADR. Two follow here with siuhy at 1.09, and EXUS at 1.01 to round it out. I believe this match could be close, but history is absolutely on FATE’s side here, but I have to believe that they are going to be pretty chalky as well. The Boars are a scrappy team, and as mentioned above, they were on a four-match winning streak before losing to AVEZ, and one could say revenge may be on their minds in this one? Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: mar – (He has nice upside, has the best numbers against the Boars as well)
Top Stacking Options: mar, h4rn, blocker (Patrick value)
ANCHOR: Szejn – (Going with a contrarian capt here, but he rates out well on both projected maps for this match)
Top Stacking Options: Szejn, siuhy, EXUS
Nordavind (Ranked 42nd in World) vs SKADE (Ranked 67th in World)
Our third match of the day is yet another out of the Swiss round 1 bracket, and it features Nordavind and SKADE. Looking over at the current betting odds for this match, Nordavind is favored to win this match, and they sit at -140 on the money line to do so. Both of these squads are fresh off 2-1 victories in their most recent matches, and Nordavind are winners of three of their last four, while SKADE are on a two-match winning streak going into this one. These two teams have played quite a bit over the last 6 months or so, four matches to be certain. Interestingly enough, Nordavind has won six of the seven maps played. SKADE has only won over nine round wins on any map just once in their last seven played as well, with the only one of course being the one they won, and even that one was close at 16-13. Since we have seven maps, we have individual performances to analyze as well. So, for Nordavind (seven maps) H4RR3 comes in with the best individual stat-line vs SKADE as he sits with a +41 K-D Diff, 1.40 K-D, and 1.31 Rating. Both HS and TENZKI also sit with nice stat-lines, with HS sitting at +27 K-D diff, 1.23 K-D, and 1.24 Rating, while TENZKI sits with a +24 K-D diff, 1.23 K-D, and 1.22 Rating. For SKADE (seven maps) only one player option sits with a positive stat-line for them and that is Rainwaker with a +1 K-D diff, 1.01 K-D, and 1.04 Rating. Let’s take a look at some maps
The two typical bans for these two include Vertigo for SKADE, and Train for Nordavind. The two typical first map picks for these two include Mirage for Nordavind, and Inferno for SKADE. I will be honest, if Nordavind wanted to play map strategy for this match, they could easily go with Nuke, a map they have won 75% of on their last 12 tries, compared to just 25% for SKADE in the same number of maps played at 12 apiece. I could see them going with their typical pick of Mirage as well, as SKADE is on a four-match skid there as well. Since I think we could land on either one of those maps, I am not going to list player performances, as I don’t want to skew the numbers. I will say that I feel pretty strongly about Nordavind in this match, and the history backs that up quite nicely over their last four matches played. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: H4RRE – (Crushing numbers vs SKADE, decent numbers as of late. I don’t mind him or TENZKi here)
Top Stacking Options: H4RRE, TENZKI, HS
ANCHOR: Rainwaker – (only player with positive numbers against Nord, and he is easily their best player)
Top Stacking Options: Rainwaker, dennyslaw, Duplicate
forZe (Ranked 28th in World) vs Copenhagen Flames (Unranked)
In our final best of three match out of the Swiss round one, we have forZe and Copenhagen Flames. Need I point out that this is an over-hauled Flames team that has zero of their members they had before Farlig left. They are also unranked now, which likely means they are not that good, and well forZe is a pretty solid team, denoted by their World rank. Looking at the current betting odds for this one, we get another large favorite on forZe as they sit as the biggest favorite on the slate at -400 on the money line. Forze has been crushing to say the least, sweeping four of their last five opponents, with their only loss coming on a reverse sweep to a very good OG team. The Flames have done well for themselves as well, winning three of their last five, with all three of those wins coming via the 2-0 sweep, however the level of competition is quite suspect. Since we have no head-to-head data, we will look at the last month of individual performances. For the Flames (seven map sample) mertz is the top dog for this squad lately, sitting with a 1.22 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.27 IMP, and 80.0 ADR. maNKz is next with a 1.11, Daffu at 1.03, and Basso at 1.02. For forZe (28 maps) xsepower is the lead with a 1.23 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 0.55 DPR, 1.26 IMP, and 74.7 ADR. FL1t is next at1.22, Jerry at 1.07, and lastly, almazer at 1.06. Let’s jump right into the projected map analysis.
The typical first ban maps for these two squads lately include Dust2 for the Flames and Vertigo for forZe. The first map selections have been Inferno for forZe, and Nuke for the Flames. Since we have very limited data on the map selections for the Flames, I am not going to list the numbers for each individuals, just know that forZe is pretty good on just about every map possible, and Overpass is their weakest map just winning it roughly 42% lately. I fully expect forZe to show the Flames what it is like to play a top-30 team in CS:GO in this one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: xespower – (I don’t mind he or FL1T as both have been balling lately)
Top Stacking Options: xespower, FL1T, Jerry
ANCHOR: mertz – (Easily their best player over the last month, and the numbers show it)
Top Stacking Options: mertz, maNKz, Daffu
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: KEi, xespower, mar, Kylar, H4RR3
Top Stacks: AVEZ, forZe, Nordavind, FATE
Top Values: almazer, blocker, siuhy, Szejn, Patrick