Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO Aug 12
Sean Mitchell brings you all you need to build your CS:GO DFS lineups for Wednesday's DreamHack Open Summer 2020 three-match slate!
FAM! We asked for a $10k up top GPP for Wednesday’s CS:GO DFS slate, and once again we were given what we asked for! SO, a playbook we shall have for it as well! The DreamHack Open Summer 2020 Event keeps rolling and we have three more best of three matches on tap for this slate! Let’s go!
Complexity (Ranked 9th in World) vs OG (Ranked 13th in World)
Our first best of three match of the day features two top fifteen teams in the World, and it is a Group B winner’s bracket match out of the Europe region. Looking at the current betting odds, it is pretty evident that the books are actually giving OG some respect in this match today and are listing Complexity as a slight -160 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams are fresh off a win in their last matches, Complexity handed forZe a loss with a 1-2 result, while OG also dealt a 1-2 loss but to Spirit. Both have been somewhat up and down over their prior five matches, with both winning three of their last five, however, Complexity had dropped two matches prior to their win in their last match, while OG have won three of their last four, with their only loss coming to BIG. These two squads have played once in 2020 so far, with Complexity taking it in three maps. Complexity was able to win both Nuke (16-12) and Train (16-7), with OG winning Mirage (16-10). The top scorers from each from this match included blameF with a monster game with 66 frags compared to only 37 deaths, with a 1.43 rating, and 91.5 ADR. K0nfig also had a nice day with a 55-45 K/D, and a 1.10 rating with a 74.7 ADR. For OG, it was valde with the best day sitting at 52-50 K/D, with a 1.03 rating, and 67.9 ADR. Since both of these teams have literally been off for around a month, and haven’t played in the server much, let’s see who has played the best over the last three months for both. For Complexity (79 map sample) it is blameF at the top with a 1.29 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.22 IMP, and 85.2 ADR. Next, its oBo at 1.16, k0nfig at 1.12, and poizon at 1.11. For OG (52 map sample) its mantuu in the lead with a 1.15 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.08 IMP, and 73.4 ADR. All others sit above a 1.0 rating for this span, starting with valde at 1.13, ISSAA at 1.08, Aleksib at 1.06, and lastly, NBK- at 1.02. Let’s see if we can project some map choices for these two squads.
The first two ban maps for these two teams include Vertigo for OG and Overpass for Complexity. The first picks lately include Inferno for OG, and Mirage for Complexity. Both of these maps seem to be fairly confident choices for both, as they both bode well for their respective teams. I think we could easily see these two maps chosen as well, so let’s see who has played the best on these two over the last three months. For Complexity on their projected map choice of Mirage (22 map sample) blameF is the top guy here as well with a 1.26 rating, 0.79 KPR, 0.57 DPR, 1.14 IMP, and 85.9 ADR. Three others follow here with oBo at 1.20, poizon at 1.18, and k0nfig at 1.11. For Inferno (seven map sample) no shocker but blameF is the top guy here as well with a 1.30 rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.55 DPR, 1.24 IMP, and 90.8 ADR. Three also follow here beginning with k0nfig at 1.11, RUSH at 1.02, and lastly, oBo at 1.00. For OG on their projected map choice of Inferno (11 map sample) mantuu is the lead with a 1.17 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.15 IMP, and 70.9 ADR. All of his teammates follow him here with valde next at 1.16, NBK- at 1.13, ISSAA at 1.08, and lastly, Aleksib at 1.05. This match is really interesting. Both teams are just getting back into the groove of playing again after time off, and the odds are stating that they think this is a close match. Complexity has been known to allow three-map affairs quite often, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see another here. I think OG plays Inferno well enough, and if they do so choose it, they have a high chance of winning it and taking this to three maps. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: blameF – (Blame is their best player by far, and he ravished their opponent in their first match back)
Top Stacking Options: blameF, oBo, k0nfig (poizon for value)
ANCHOR: mantuu – (If you have ever read a playbook of mine with OG, mantuu is a young stud, and he is the best player on this team)
Top Stacking Options: mantuu, valde, ISSAA
FURIA (Ranked 8th in World) vs TeamOne (Ranked 55th in World)
Our second best of three match of the day is out of Group B as well, and it is a winner’s bracket match out of the North America region. FURIA comes in easily as the largest favorite on the slate today at almost -1450 to win this match. This isn’t a shock here, as FURIA is literally one of the best teams in the world. FURIA were winners in a 2-0 sweep over Yeah in their first match back after their break, while TeamOne have not been on a break, however they have lost three of their last five, and the level of competition has not been that great. I suppose it is worth mentioning they did win a 2-1 result over Cloud9 two matches ago, and this was a nice win, but losses to Positive Vibes Only and Ze Pug Godz, did not look that great for them in their last three matches. Obviously, we don’t have any head-to-head data to go off of here, so we must look at the last three months of individual data to look for some edges. Since FURIA hasn’t played but two maps in the last month, we will look at their three-month span, but since TeamOne has played a decent amount over the last month, we will look in that span for them. For FURIA over last three months (43 map sampe) it is yuurih at the top with a 1.17 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 79.3 ADR. Three others were also above a 1.0 rating with HEN1 at 1.14, arT at 1.13, and KSCERATO at 1.12. For TeamOne over the last month (18 map sample) prt is the top guy for this span, sitting with a 1.10 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 75.6 ADR. Next, its pesadelo at 1.03, malbsMd at 1.02, and b4rtiN at 1.01 to round it out. Let’s see if we can project some map choices for this match.
The first two banned map for these two squads includes Dust2 for FURIA, and Vertigo for TeamOne, which just so happens to be the typical first map choice for FURIA. The typical first map choice for TeamOne is Train, and they are winning this one at an 82% clip over their last 11 attempts. Since Vertigo will be banned by TeamOne, the next most chosen map for FURIA is Mirage, where they have won all six of their prior six tries there over the last three months. I can’t just give Train to TeamOne, as FURIA is also winning this one over 60% of the time over their last five tries. However, I feel we can confidently say these two maps will be chosen for this match. Let’s see who plays the best here lately. For FURIA on their projected amp choice of Mirage (six map sample) it is surprisingly arT with the top numbers here for this span, sitting at 1.39 rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.69 IMP, and 94.8 ADR. Next, its HEN1 at 1.26, yuurih at 1.21, KSCERATO at 1.18, and last but not least, VINI at 1.07. For Train (five map sample) yuurih is the guy here with a 1.32 rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.43 IMP, and 92.8 ADR. He is followed by all his teammates beginning with KSCERATO at 1.13, VINI at 1.03, and both HEN1 and arT at 1.00. For TeamOne on their projected map choice of Train (11 map sample) b4rtiN is the top option here with a 1.32 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.38 IMP, and 90.1 ADR. Next, prt sits at 1.14, malbsMd at 1.13, maluk3 at 1.12, and pseadelo at 1.10. For Mirage (six map sample) it is prt with the lead numbers here at 1.15 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 84.5 ADR. Only one follows here and that is pesadelo at 1.02. I have to say that FURIA is overall the better team in this match. There is a major reason they are such a large favorite, and TeamOne is not used to playing this type of talent. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: yuurih – (Rates out well on both maps, also best numbers over last three months)
Top Stacking Options: yuurih, HEN1, KSCERATO (arT value)
ANCHOR: prt – (He has led them in numbers over the past month, and leads them on Mirage as well)
Top Stacking Options: prt, b4rtiN, pesadelo
Ze Pug Godz (Ranked 52nd in World) vs Chaos
The last best of three match of the day is the Group A decider match out of the North America region and it is between Ze Pug Godz and Chaos. Winner of this match moves on into the tournament and the loser goes home. Ze Pug Godz had all they wanted yesterday against Triumph after blowing a 12-3 lead on Mirage, in which allowed for the third and final map of Vertigo, where they finished it out with a 16-1 drumming. Chaos was taken care of in pretty quick fashion by Liquid in a 0-2 reverse sweep. The current betting odds are listing Chaos as a -150 favorite at the current moment on the money line to win this match. These two squads have played each other recently, with Ze Pug Godz giving them a quick 2-0 sweep, with wins on Dust 2 (16-14) and Mirage (16-5). The top players for this match were Vanity for Chaos with a 37-35 K-D, and 1.07 rating, while the top player for Pugz was Infinite with a 44-33 K-D, 1.38 Rating, and 93.3 ADR. Since both of these teams have been pretty active lately, let’s take a look at who has performed the best over the last month for each. For Ze Pug Godz (29 map sample) it is Infinite at the top with a 1.16 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 81.2 ADR. MarKE follows with a 1.15, dazzLe at 1.12, Zellsis at 1.10, and lastly, Cooper- at 1.09. For Chaos (16 map sample) Jonji has played the best lately for this span with a 1.29 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.41 IMP, and 90.0 ADR. Xeppaa is right behind him with a 1.27, Vanity at 1.14, leaf at 1.10, and finally, steel at 1.06. Let’s see if we can project some maps.
As mentioned above, these two played earlier this year and the two maps chosen were Dust2 and Mirage. I believe the only reason that these maps were chosen was simply due to the fact that the Pug Godz didn’t ban their usual ban of Dust2, and Chaos thought they could get one-up on them by choosing it, well that didn’t work out. Also, Chaos took out Inferno, which is the typical first map chosen by the Pug Godz. I think we see two different maps in this one, and I think we see Nuke by Chaos, and Inferno by Ze Pug Godz, or Mirage for them, since this was the map they chose the last time Inferno was banned. I could see Chaos continuing to ban Inferno since they are pretty sure the Pug Godz aren’t going to choose Vertigo, which is they usual ban for Chaos. SO, I think we see Nuke and Mirage. Let’s take a look at the top performers for these two lately. For Chaos on their projected map choice of Nuke (13 map sample) vanity is the lead here with a 1.27 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 75.7 ADR. He is followed by Jonji at 1.24, steel at 1.23, Xeppaa at 1.22, and leaf at 1.21. Pretty strong map for them. For Mirage (14 map sample) it is Xeppaa in the lead here with a 1.30 rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.42 IMP, and 90.3 ADR. He is followed here by vanity at 1.08, Jonji at 1.04, and leaf at 1.03. For Ze Pug Godz on their projected map choice of Mirage (five map sample) Infinite sits at the top of this one with a 1.14 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 82.1 ADR. He is followed by MarKE at 1.09, Zellsis at 1.09 also, and lastly, dazzLe at 1.03. For Nuke (seven map sample) Infinite is the lead guy here as well with a 1.37 rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.41 IMP, and 92.5 ADR. MarKE is next at 1.24, and then both dazzLe and Cooper- both sit at 1.14 to round it out. I think this should be a very interesting match. It is a bit of a revenge narrative for Chaos, as they got swept in their prior match against each other, so they should have some added fuel after the loss to Liquid as well to advance in this tournament. They must win to do so. Let’s talk options.
ZE PUG GODZ:
ANCHOR: Infinite – (Massively rates out well on both project maps, and over the last month)
Top Stacking Options: Infinite, MarKE, Zellsis (all are in play really)
ANCHOR: JonJi – (Jonji has really taken a turn for this squad and he is playing very well lately as an entry-fragger)
Top Stacking Options: Jonji, Xeppaa, vanity
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: blameF, yuurih, mantuu, Jonji
Top Stacks: FURIA, Chaos, Complexity
Top Values: infinite, valde, MarKE, vanity, dazzLe, b4rtin