Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO Aug 11
Sean Mitchell breaks down all three matches for Tuesday's DreamHack Open Summer 2020 Event CS:GO DFS slate!
Alright, FAm, going to need everyone’s help in filling the $10 GPP I asked for on tomorrow’s slate. DK was kind enough to give us another shot at this, and now we need to do our part if we want CSGO DFS to stick around! LET’S SHOW THEM WE LOVE CSGO AND FILL THIS TOURNAMENT! We have a three-match DreamHack Open Summer 2020 Event slate on tap for Tuesday, so let’s jump right in!
BIG (Ranked 1st in World) vs Heroic (Ranked 19th in World)
First of all, just want to say Boy, it feels good to be writing about CS:GO once again! Our first best of three match of the day is out of the Group A winner’s bracket, and it features two top-twenty squads with the number one ranked team in the World in BIG, and the 19th ranked up-and-coming Heroic Team. The current betting odds are listing BIG as almost a -200 favorite to win this match. Both of these teams have been in pretty good form lately, with BIG winning four of their last five, with their only loss coming to Vitality in a 1-2 result, while Heroic have won three of their last four, with their only loss coming to OG in a 1-2 result also. These two squads have only played one time so far in 2020, with BIG giving Heroic the business in a 2-0 sweep that saw a 16-12 win on Inferno, and a 16-9 win on Overpass. These two had faced-off twice in 2019 as well, with Heroic sweeping both of those matches, however it is worth noting that BIG had two faces on their team at this point that are no longer with them, so hard to justify those wins without referencing that point. Since we do one match that we can analyze for the 2020 year, let’s look at who played the best in this one, and then we will also look at over the last three months individually for both teams as well. For BIG, it was syrsoN at the top with a 43-34 outing, 1.26 rating, and 84 ADR. tabseN also finished nicely at 37-33, with a 1.20 rating, and 85.9 ADR. tiziaN made a nice value as well with a 37-31 finish, with a 1.03 rating, and 74.4 ADR. For Heroic in this one, cadiaN was the only player option to finish with a positive K/D at 38-35, with a 0.97 rating, and 65.3 ADR. Their top fragger as well. Now, for over the last three month of matches for BIG (73 map sample) syrsoN takes the cake with a 1.19 rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.60 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 75.3 ADR. Next, tabseN follows at 1.16, XANTARES at 1.16 as well, with tiziaN at 1.06, and lastly k1to at 1.01. For Heroic (68 map sample) it is stavn at the top with a 1.17 rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.63 DPR, 1.13 IMP, and 81.9 ADR. All other teammates follow him as well above a 1.0 rating, with niko next at 1.12, TeSeS at 1.12 also, cadiaN at 1.08, and lastly b0RUP at 1.02. Let’s look at some projected map picks for this match.
The first two ban map picks for these two squads include Overpass for Heroic and Train for BIG. The typical first map choices lately for these two include Nuke for Heroic, and Dust2 for BIG. Hate to say it for Heroic, but BIG is likely favored on any map they so decide to play on, and it really isn’t that close. Even Nuke, Heroic’s typical first pick over 30% of the time, in which they have done really well on winning close to 80% on over their last nine attempts, BIG is winning this map at almost 90% over their last 14 tries there. Dust2, a map BIG is winning around 75% of their last 19 played, just 42% success rate for Heroic over their last 12. Looking back at their one match played this year, Heroic actually banned Dust2, and BIG stuck with banning Train. Heroic picked Overpass, in which they still ended up losing on by a final of 16-9. BIG picked Inferno with Dust2 gone and won it as well 16-12. I could definitely easily see Heroic still banning Dust2, as it is a really good map for BIG obviously, but it doesn’t really matter here, as BIG is just too damn good of a team. Heroic likely needs to stick with their pick in Nuke and hope they can compete enough to keep it close where they could have a shot at stealing it. I would love to say that we can feel confident in the two typical first map choices, I don’t think this will be the case. BIG just has so many maps in their map pool that they can utilize given Dust2 is banned. It seems the Heroic will also try to play map strategy and try to find a sneaky way into winning a map against BIG, and I just don’t see this happening. Not going to list individual performances on maps, going straight to options.
ANCHOR: syrsoN – (syrsoN is their AWPer and he is damn good at it too, I will likely have lots of he and tabseN)
Top Stacking Options: syrsoN, tabseN, XANTARES
ANCHOR: niko – (going with a value in niko, who sits with the second-best numbers on the team over the last three months, stavn is also an option)
Top Stacking Options: niko, stavn, cadiaN
Ze Pug Godz (Ranked 52nd in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 50th in World)
Our second best of three match for today’s slate comes in the North American region, and it is actually an elimination match for Group A. The current betting odds for this match are listing Ze Pug Godz as -185 favorites on the money line to win this match. Ze Pug Godz are fresh off two victories over decent levels of competition in TeamOne, who they beat in a best of three with a score of 2-1, and also a 16-10 best of one win over Yeah as well. They had dropped their prior two matches, with one being an 0-2 sweep to Liquid. Triumph is fresh off a 0-2 reverse sweep at the hands of Chaos, and have dropped three of their last five, with their only wins being over TeamOne also (3-0 sweep in Grand Final of the ESEA MDL Season 33 NA Event) and the Swedish Canadians in a 2-0 sweep as well. These two teams faced-off in a best of three in 2020 already, however, it is highly worth noting that Triumph still had their best player – Grim, in which they do not have anymore as he signed with Team Liquid just a few days ago. I do believe that Triumph will be on a bit of up-hill battle with the loss of Grim, as they acquired moose from Team Envy, however, moose is nothing more than a place-holder currently, and he really wasn’t a needle-mover with Envy to begin with. Since we can’t exactly analyze the match that Grim had played in with Triumph, let’s see who has played well over the last month for both squads. For Ze Pug Godz (26 map sample) it has been MarKE at the top with a 1.16 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 82.7 ADR. Next, we have Infinite at 1.15, Cooper- at 1.12, Zellsis at 1.10, and lastly, dazzle at 1.08. For Triumph (19 map sample and Grim played up until their most recent match as well) it was Junior at the top with a 1.23 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.22 IMP, and 76.0 ADR. Penny took the second slot with a 1.07, with Spongey at 1.03. Triumph actually has two new faces to replace Grim and Curry actually, so its penny and moose as the newcomers. This doesn’t bode well for them at all. Let’s go to the map’s analysis.
The first two banned maps for these two lately have include Train for Triumph and Dust2 for Ze Pug Godz. The two first typical map choices lately for these two includes Nuke for Triumph and Inferno for Ze Pug Godz. I could see this being a little shaken up though, as the Pugz are playing really well on Nuke lately, and Triumph has shuffled between first picks lately with both Nuke and Overpass, however, Overpass is a map that the Pugz have only played four times lately, compared to the seven they have played for Nuke. Triumph could choose some map strategy here and go with Overpass, a map they are quite familiar with, and also winning roughly 70% of their last 12 on as well. I do think this could easily be the route we see, and I think we see Overpass and Inferno as the two map choices. Let’s see who has played well on these two maps lately. For the Pug Godz on their projected map choice of Inferno (five map sample) Zellsis actually leads the team here with a 1.21 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 79.5 ADR. All of other player options follow here as well starting with Cooper- at 1.19, MarKe and dazzLe at 1.16, and Infinite at the end with 1.08. For Overpass (four map sample) Cooper- is the tops here with a 1.43 rating, 0.95 KPR, 1.42 IMP, and 88.8 ADR. dazzLe follows him here at 1.13, MarKE at 1.11, and Zellsis at 1.06 to round out the list. For Triumph on their projected map choice of Overpass (12 map sample) Junior is the lead here with a 1.13 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.00 IMP, and 71.7 ADR. Followed by Shakezullah at 1.11, Spongey at 1.08, and penny at 1.02. For Inferno (eight map sample) Shakezullah leads the team lately here with a 1.16 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 81.2 ADR. He is followed by only Junior at 1.13 as well. Remember, both penny and moose are new to the squad, and moose just joined prior to their most recent match. Let’s talk options.
ZE PUG GODZ:
ANCHOR: Cooper- (Rates well on both projected maps, DPR best on team, as well as Kill-Asst% over L3 months)
Top Stacking Options: Cooper-, MarKE, Zellsis
ANCHOR: Junior – (Junior is clearly the best play on this team now, and it’s not really close)
Top Stacking Options: Junior, Shakezullah, Spongey
Liquid (Ranked 10th in World) vs Chaos (Ranked 32nd in World)
Our third and final best of three of the day in the DreamHack Open Summer 2020 event is also out of the North America region, and it is another one out of the winner’s bracket for Group A play. Currently looking at the betting odds for this match, Liquid comes in as the largest favorite on the slate listed at -500 on the money line to win this match. Liquid had quite the debut from their newly signed player in Grim from Triumph in their most recent match. Grim went a smooth 51-28 in his debut against Ze Pug Godz in route to a 2-0 Liquid sweep. Grim is exactly what Liquid needed to contend for a championships and I for one, am here and glad I get to watch some of this while it lasts in DFS. Liquid had dropped two-straight prior to their win over the Pug Godz, so that was a nice win to get them back on track. Chaos is not a team to take lightly either, as they have won all five of their most recent matches, and just since I stopped writing CSGO about three weeks ago, their World rank has improved quite a bit since then, with them being inside the top 35 teams now in the World. This is actually a bit of a revenge narrative for Liquid however, as Chaos did beat them earlier either year in the DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 event with a 1-2 result. Again, this was when Liquid did not have Grim either, so that throws a whole new element into this match. Since we don’t have really any updated head-to-head matches, let’s look at individual performances over the last three months for both. For Liquid (43 map sample) Grim actually leads (59 map sample) with a 1.36 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.42 IMP, and 96.4 ADR. So, you can see what I mean about him being a definite new element to this Liquid team. Next, EliGe sits at 1.28, Twistzzz at 1.23, and both NAF and Stewie2K at 1.08 each. For Chaos (79 map sample) Xeppaa is the top player within this sample at a 1.23 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 82.0 ADR. Vanity and leaf both share the next spot at 1.14, with Jonji sitting at 1.13, and steel at 1.08 to round it out. Let’s take a look at some projected map picks for this match.
The first two ban maps lately include Train for Liquid and Vertigo for Chaos. The two typically first maps chosen lately has been Nuke for Chaos, in which they have a seven-map winning streak on, and Mirage for Liquid, which they currently have a four-match losing streak on. I do think we could see Liquid choose to go with a map like Dust2 instead, as it is map that has a decent ban percentage from Chaos, and it has been one of their lower success rate maps lately as well. With the recent struggles for Liquid on Mirage, I could easily see the two map choices being Nuke and Dust2. Let’s see the top performers for these two maps lately. For Chaos on their projected map choice of Nuke (13 map sample) vanity has actually led the squad here lately with a 1.27 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 75.7 ADR. The whole rest of the team sits above a 1.20 rating here as well with Jonji at 1.24, steel at 1.23, Xeppaa at 1.22, and leaf at 1.21. For Dust2 (nine map sample) leaf takes the top spot here lately with a 1.12 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.09 IMP, and 79.0 ADR. All others follow him here as well, with vanity at 1.09, Jonji at 1.08, Xeppaa at 1.06, and steel at 1.02. For Liquid on their projected map choice of Dust2 (four map sample for the main liquid, 10 for Grim) Grim leads his new team here with a 1.38 rating, 0.96 KPR, 1.53 IMP, and 97.1 ADR. He is followed by EliGe with 1.24, NAF at 1.12, and Twistzz at 1.05 to round it out. For Nuke (14 map sample for Grim, eight for other Liquid members) Grim once again at the top with a 1.38 rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.45 IMP, and 97 ADR. After him it is NAF at 1.21, Twistzz at 1.10, and Stewie2K at 1.06 to end it. I think this match could be closer than most think, and that it could easily see three maps. I like stacking this game up, and I definitely know that the contrarian side will obviously be Chaos. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Grim – (Move over EliGe, as there is a new sheriff in town)
Top Stacking Options: Grim, EliGe, NAF (Twistzz for value)
ANCHOR: Vanity – (Vanity has really good numbers on Nuke, projects well on Dust2 also, with good numbers over L3 months. Should be a value capt)
Top Stacking Options: Vanity, Xeppaa, Jonji (leaf for value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Grim, SyrsoN, tabseN, Cooper-, Vanity
Top Stacks: BIG, Liquid/Chaos, Ze Pug Godz
Top Values: tiziaN, niko, MarKE, Junior, Xeppaa, leaf