Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 20
Sean Mitchell covers both 2-match, Nine to Five Dawn 2, and CSGOFAST CUP 2 events CS:GO DFS slates for Monday!
Welcome back, FAM! We have a new Event kick-off bright in early at 3:00 AM ET in the Nine to Five Dawn 2 for this Monday! We have just a two-match slate, but both are best of three series, so let’s jump right in.
GamerLegion (Ranked 71st in World) vs HONORIS (Ranked 83rd in World)
Our first best of three match for the Nine to Five Dawn 2 Event is an opening match for Group A between GamerLegion and HONORIS. Looking at the current betting odds for this match and GamerLegion are listed as a -215 favorite on the money line at the moment to take down the victory in this match. Neither one of these teams come into this match in great form, as both have dropped their last four matches in a row, while HONORIS has looked a bit worse as three of their four losses were by the 0-2 reverse sweep. It is worth mentioned that GamerLegion has not played a best of three series in their last five but have been relatively competitive in the best of one’s they have played. In their last three matches, they were able to at least record 12 or more round wins even in losing, however, HONORIS did put down a pretty crushing blow in their lone best of one five matches ago against a familiar foe to both teams in Endpoint with a 16-5 result. We can see that Endpoint did get their revenge on HONORIS for this loss, as they were one of the three reverse sweeps dealt to HONORIS just three matches ago. Sadly, there is no head-to-head data for these two against each other, so we will see who has performed the best overall over the past month for some data analyzation. For GamerLegion, (17 maps over last three months, is worth nothing they have only played two over the last month…rust?) it is mezii sitting with a 1.21 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. Both Zero (1.06) and RuStY (1.03) have also performed a smidge above average, so we can note them as well. For HONORIS (22 maps over last month), STOMP is the top player for them with a 1.11 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 76.2 ADR. Only reiko tops the 1.0 rating threshold for his teammates, as he sits at 1.03 over the last month of play. Let’s go to the projected map analysis.
The first two ban maps for these two include Overpass and Vertigo. The typical first map choices include Mirage for GamerLegion, and Train for HONORIS. Neither of these maps have been great to either team, as GL have only had a 33% success rate on Mirage over their last three attempts (remember they have not play much over the last month), while HONORIS has only stapled a 27%-win rate on Train over their last 11 attempts. I really don’t see any reason that these two maps should not be the first two chosen, as neither are being banned merely at all, and the typical first bans should be confidently banned as well. So, let’s see if we have any top performers for these two maps. For GamerLegion on their projected map choice of Mirage (three map sample) really tough to list these statistics, due to the fact that both Adam9130 and Zero have only played this map once with this crew, as they are new to the team. However, Adam9130 did amass 22 kills to 12 deaths in his lone map played on Mirage for this team, while Zero also notched out 20 frags to just 11 deaths in his lone appearance for GL. For the regular players however, RuStY is showing the best numbers over the three-map sample with a 1.04 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 79.3 ADR. Mezii also fits the bill here with a 1.03 rating. For Train (four map sample) it is RuStY once again with the best consistency for this map as well, sitting with a 1.14 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 83.8 ADR. Both mezii (1.14 rating, lower KPR), and eraa (1.12 rating) both also noted for above average numbers for the sample on Train. For HONORIS on their projected map choice of Train (11 map sample) STOMP has been quite a bit better here than his teammates with a 1.20 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 79.6 ADR. Only one other joins him here and that is reiko at 1.06. For Mirage (eight map sample) only one player sits above a 1.0 rating for this map, and that is reiko at 1.01 rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.98 IMP, and 77.6 ADR. Not the greatest numbers for HONORIS on Mirage. I really think this match will be close. I do happen to give a small edge to HONORIS, as they have played a ton more than GamerLegion over the last month, just know that in the past a team that has yet to play much in a span of time tend to have a little rust. Feel HONORIS likely are jiving well, although the win/loss column doesn’t show it, but their chemistry should be flowing as they have played more matches in events lately compared to GL. Don’t mind taking a small stance on the doggie in this one in my opinion. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: mezii – (0.81 KPR over L3 months, 0.64 DPR, 1.21 IMP, 85.4 ADR as well, he tops the list here)
Top Stacking Options: mezii, RuStY, Adam9130
ANCHOR: reiko – (Rates out on both maps and it’s either he or STOMP always usually top-2 players)
Top Stacking Options: reiko, STOMP, NEO
Lyngby Vikings (Ranked 84th in World) vs Tikitakan (Unranked)
In our second best of three match of the day, we get another opening match out of Group A in Lyngby Vikings and Tikitakan. Looking over the current betting odds for this match, it is Tikitakan listed as a slight favorite in this one sitting at -122 on the money line, however, if you want to back the Vikings you will also have to lay juice, as they sit at -106 on the money line as well. I believe the slight favorite line on Tikitakan is due to the fact that they have swept three of their last four matches, including a sweep over a decent Winstrike squad in that span. The Vikings have not looked very good lately, as they have dropped all five of their prior five matches, including being swept in two. I need to point out that the competition that the Vikings has played has been quite a bit better with names like AVEZ, Gambit Youngsters, ALT aTTaX, and Endpoint. Tikitakan have lost to seem teams as well in that span that could be considered somewhat on the talent level as the teams listed above in sAw (1-2 loss result in most recent match), and Secret (0-2 reverse sweep). OF course, once again we do not have any head-to-head data to analyze here, so we will be looking at individual performances over the last three months (in which it will be tough to analyze for Tikitakan, as they have only played two maps over that timeframe). For Tikitakan (2 maps) Djur has had the top numbers with a 1.25 rating, 0.80 KPR, 0.57 DPR, and 80.2 ADR. aybeN has also stood out with a 0.83 KPR, 74.7 Kill-Asst%, and 85.5 ADR. Spinx looks decent as well with a 0.77 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 84.7 ADR. For the Vikings, both maNkz (1.04), and Cabbi (1.02) have shown above average play over that span as well. Let’s see if we can find any map detail in the small data we have.
It is pretty scarce data to find on Tikitakan, as it shows they haven’t played much. However, the first two ban maps lately have included Overpass, and Nuke. While TIkitakan has chosen Dust2 and Mirage as their first picks lately, while Inferno and Vertigo has been the popular picks for the Vikings lately. Honestly, I don’t exactly feel very comfy trying to nail down these maps, as there is not near enough consistency, and even so, we would be merely looking a small samples as well for individual performances, so I don’t want to skew the opinions in any way with doing so. Just looking at the betting odds, it does seem odd that a team that has only played roughly three maps together as a core over the last three months (this is due to a major over-haul of this team in terms of players, not because they haven’t played) is listed as the favorite, and this makes me want to side with the Vikings. The Vikings have played much more stiff competition, and their core has been intact for quite a while now, so I believe I have to side with them in this one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: maNkz – (It’s a toss-up here, as none of their options have looked that great lately, but he has shown to be the most consistent over the last month)
Top Stacking Options: maNkz, Cabbi, Twinx
ANCHOR: Djur – (From the limited data, he has the best numbers)
Top Stacking Options: Djur, aybeN, Spinx
CSGOFAST CUP 5
Singularity (Ranked 81st in World) vs SJ (Ranked 176th in World)
In our first best of three match for the Fast Cup 5 event, we have the third match of the day out of the round of 16. Looking at the current betting odds, Singularity comes in as almost a -300 favorite, currently sitting at -290 on the money line to win this match. Singularity were recently ousted from the Eden Arena Malta Vibes Cup 3 quarter-final round by Illuminar as they were swept 0-2. Singularity has been quite the mixed bag lately, dropped three of their last five, with their only wins coming against PACT in a best of three and a best of one matches. SJ have not looked well at all, as they have lost all five of their last five matches, but they did lose twice to HAVU, and also lost to ALT aTTaX as well. It is worth noting that SJ also are playing with some new faces, as jemi and LYNXi has played less than five matches with this team. This core has played less than three maps over the past month as well. However, it isn’t too much weight to place against them for this, as they have played a very small amount together, so it isn’t a totally fresh start. Once again, we have no head-to-head data to go off of, so let’s see who has performed the best lately. For Singularity over the last three months, it is nicoodoz leading the squad with a 1.12 rating, 0.71 KPR, 0.60 DPR, and a 72.2 ADR. Celrate is the only other option for them to eclipse a 1.0 rating over this span, and he sits right there at the cusp with a 1.01. For SJ, jemi (six map sample) has been the best lately with a 1.22 rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.37 IMP, and 89.5 ADR. He is the only option for them over a 1.0 rating for that time. Let’s see if we can locate some maps for these two.
The first two ban maps for these two include Train and Overpass. The typical first picks are Nuke for Singularity and train for SJ. As we know, Train has been the ban for Singularity, so the next map up for SJ looks to be Inferno. We literally have hardly any map data for SJ however, so it’s really tough to analyze very small sample sizes, and I hate doing that. SJ could also look to play map strategy with Mirage, as it is a map that Singularity are on a 5-map losing streak on as well. Its very important to note that this core once again for SJ has only played one map together, and that was on the 4th of July. Their last match before that? Was June 13th. Not a good look for them coming into this one against Singularity, who have played quite often lately. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: nicoodoz – (he is the new guy on the team (not really new) and he has carried quite a few times already)
Top Stacking Options: nicoodoz, Celrate, notaN
ANCHOR: jemi – (Also the new guy, but hes shown nice flash since coming on and is carrying with nice numbers)
Top Stacking Options: jemi, KHRN, arvid
Budapest 5 (Ranked 82nd in World) vs ttc (Ranked 173rd in World)
In the second best of three match we have on tap for this event, we have the final match for the day out of the round of 16. Looking at the betting odds, the Budapest Five come in as the largest favorite on the slate at -588 currently on the money line to win. This is likely due in part to TTC only having played seven total matches with the core they have at the moment, not to mention the fact that they have not played a match in over thirty days either (last match was May 22nd). However, we do have a head-to-head match to analyze, it just has a new face for ttc that did not play in it, and Budapest Five was Salamander then. Before we analyze that match, it is important to note that ttc had yet to win a match in their prior five matches before taking the hiatus from the server. Budapest Five have lost three-straight, two by a 1-2 result, and a best of one match to FATE by a final of 16-9 on Train. SO, back to this match between these two. It was in April, and then Salamander, now Budapest Five won this one by a 2-1 result. The top scorers for this match was torzsi for Buda with a 75-45 K-D, 1.42 rating, and 91.5 ADR, and no shocker, but the face not present anymore in quix was the lead for ttc with a 61-59 final line. KrowNii was next in line with a 52-54 stat-line in this one. Let’s see who has played the best lately. Since Buda has played 16 maps over the last month, obviously an edge in my opinion, we will start with them. Both torszi and Kory sit at a 1.12 rating, however, torszi has quite a higher KPR at 0.77 compared to the 0.73 for Kory. They are both the only two options sitting above a 1.0 rating as well for them. Seems that KrowNii is the guy for ttc, as he has a 1.22 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.44 IMP, and 82.9 ADR in just three maps over the last three months for ttc. Since we don’t have much map data for ttc, going to go right to player options.
ANCHOR: torszi – (He and Kory are the top two for this team and it is not really close)
Top Stacking Options: torszi, Kory, fleav
ANCHOR: KrowNii – (Pretty sure he is the IGL, and seems to be their best player)
Top Stacking Options: KrowNii, dukiiii, pulzG (remember not a lot of data for this squad, so it will be a toss up literally)