Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 17
Sean Mitchell provides all the stats and analysis you need for the PAL CS:GO DFS 4-match slate beginning at 1:00 AM ET!
For Friday we have a midnight start for the Perfect World Asia League Summer 2020 Event with four quarter-final matches on tap. Let’s jump in.
Invictus (Ranked 61st in World) vs D13 (Ranked 121st in World)
We kick off our first best of three quarter-final match for today with Invictus and D13. Looking over the current betting odds for this match and it is pretty one-sided at the moment with Invictus coming in as a -265 favorite on the money line to win it. Seems that the Total Maps bet is also favoring the Under 2.5 maps, as it is juiced up quite largely to -167, this could insinuate a sweep for Invictus if you are into that sort of thing. Invictus does come in with excellent form as well, as they have won all five of their recent five matches, only one via the sweep however. D13 Just suffered an 0-2 reverse sweep loss to ViCi, and also a 1-2 result to their opponent today Invictus in their last two. They have dropped three of their last five, and are on a 2-match skid, so they will be looking for some revenge in this rematch. These two squads do have a small sample of recent head-to-head data, but it has been Invictus in both matches so far in 2020. It is key to note that both matches did go the full distance as well of three maps. Since we do have a six-map sample, let’s see the top performers for these two against each other recently. For Invictus, it is flying with quite a margin of larger success against D13 than his teammates, coming in with a +34 K-D diff, 1.35 K-D, and 1.31 Rating. Next best is Oi at +18 K-D diff, 1.19 K-D, and 1.07 Rating. For D13, Annihilation is showing the best overall stat-line with a +16 K-D diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.14 Rating, with sk0R being the only other option for D13 with a positive stat-line against Invictus with a +8 K-D diff, 1.07 K-D, and 1.09 Rating. Let’s see what kind of maps will likely be played for this match.
Both teams are not a fan of Overpass, as it has been the most banned map by both lately. The next biggest ban is Dust2 for D13 (in which Invictus have a 5-map streak on), and Nuke for Invictus. Looking back at their prior two matches this year, both Train and Mirage showed up in both matches, Vertigo and Inferno were the lone one-offs. Oddly enough, Each team has been able to win their own map choice in both matches, but Invictus found success on both decider maps, which happened to be Mirage both times. I wouldn’t be surprised to see D13 throw a curve here like they did in the last match, where they went Vertigo instead of Train, in which led to a 16-11 victory for them. They did win Train in the match before however with a score of 16-9. Invictus could also elect to ban Inferno, Invictus typical map choice, and map they haven’t allowed D13 to beat them on in those matches, in the event that Invictus gets the first ban map and takes out Overpass. I do think the most likely scenario however is that we see Inferno and Train. Let’s see who the top guys have been here lately. For Invictus on their typical first most choice of Inferno (14 map sample) flying is the lead here with a 1.26 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 88.4 ADR. Three others make the list here with xiaosaGe at 1.18, DeStRoYeR at 1.03, and Viva sitting at 1.01. On Train (six map sample) it is Viva sitting at 1.22 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.29 IMP, and 86.1 ADR. Flying is next at 1.19, with DeStRoYeR being the only other option to meet the requirements at 1.06 rating. For D13 on their projected map choice of Train (13 map sample) sk0R is the top guy here with a 1.19 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 80.9 ADR. Only two other player options for D13 top a 1.0 rating here in rate at 1.17, and Annihilation at 1.14. Now, for Inferno (4 map sample) it is Annihilation at the top with 1.11 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 75 ADR. Sk0R is next at 1.10, and lastly, rate at 1.04. I still believe that Invictus likely get the win here, they seem to be the better overall team, but all it will take is D13 to somehow find something on the decider map and it could turn into an upset. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: flying – (Best overall numbers, and he is the carry)
Top Stacking Options: Flying, Viva, DeStRoYeR
ANCHOR: Annihilation – (Has a better DPR than sk0R, but both will likely be capt considerations if playing D13)
Top Stacking Options: Annhilation, sk0R, rate
ViCi (Ranked 66th in World) vs Lucid Dream (Ranked 113th in World)
Our second quarter-final best of three match for the PAL Event is between ViCi and Lucid Dream. The current betting odds are listing ViCi as a massive 10-to-1 favorite to win this match, and they are the biggest favorite on the slate. ViCi have won three-straight, and four of their last five with their only loss coming to TIGER in a 1-2 result. Lucid Dream have dropped two of their last three, both losses coming via the 0-2 sweep. The line is likely heavily influenced by these two squad’s recent head-to-head data, where ViCi has already swept Lucid in back-to-back matches so far in 2020. The games inside those matches were not exactly “close” either, as Lucid was not able to secure a map with round-wins over 11 in any of the four played. JamYoung has been quite the destroyer when playing Lucid in those two matches, as he went for a +67 K- D diff, 1.85 K-D, and 1.54 Rating over the four maps played, while Kaze also posted swell numbers of +50 K-D diff, 1.70 K-D, and 1.43 Rating. Only one player option for Lucid has a positive stat-line against ViCi in those head-to-head matches, and that is foxz at +8 K-D diff, 1.11 K-D, and 1.05 Rating. Let’s take a look at some maps.
The two first bans for these two include Vertigo and Dust2. The first two map choices lately have been Mirage for Lucid, and Nuke for ViCi. These have been the two map choices for both prior matches as well. We can say it has a higher than likely probability of being the same for this one. Let’s see who has been performing the best on these lately for each of these teams. For ViCi on their projected map choice of Nuke (11 map sample) JamYoung has been excellent here lately with a 1.47 Rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.65 IMP, and 94.5 ADR. Three others fit the bill here as well beginning with Kaze at 1.32, aumaN at 1.22, zhokiNg at 1.01. For Mirage (nine map sample) it is zhokiNg at the top with a 1.07 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 87.1 ADR. Both Kaze and JamYoung come in next at 1.06 to round out the list. For Lucid Dream on their projected map choice of Mirage (17 map sample) foxz is at the top here with a 1.11 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 77 ADR. Two others follow here with both PTC and JohnOlsen at 1.13 to end the list. For Nuke (10 map sample) JohnOlsen has been the best here lately with a 1.03 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 79.2 ADR. Two once again follow here with the same rating in SeveN89 and PTC both at 1.01. I think its clear who Vegas thinks is going to win this match, along with the prior head-to-head history. Just doesn’t seem like Lucid is a great overall team, and ViCi just has a bit too much star-power on their side in Kaze and JamYoung. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: JamYoung- (Ill likely have lots of him and Kaze, as both have been top-notch for this team lately and against Lucid)
Top Stacking Options: JamYoung, Kaze, zhokiNg
ANCHOR: foxz – (Clearly their best player lately and seems to have the most upside)
Top Stacking Options: foxz, JohnOlsen, PTC (SeveN89 could be value if playing)
TYLOO (Ranked 48th in World) vs Divine Vendetta (Ranked 133rd in World)
The third match on tap for tonight has the second largest favorite of the slate in TYLOO facing off against Divine Vendetta. As mentioned, TYLOO come into this match as -900 favorites to win this match. Much like ViCi, TYLOO has also owned Divine in their prior meetings this year, beating them with 2-0 sweep in both meetings. It did come a bit closer in their most recent match however, as Divine was able to secure 11 and 12 round wins on both maps played but couldn’t string together enough to get a third map. TYLOO has swept all five of their prior five matches as well, if that tells you anything. Divine have lost four of their last five matches to boot. Let’s see who had the best performances in these prior matches. For TYLOO somebody topped their most recent match with a 52-33 K-D, 1.41 Rating, and 92.5 ADR, with Summer coming in next with 48-36 K-D, 1.35 rating, and 95.7 ADR. No one for Divine had a positive line in that one, but it is worth noting that PokemoN has been the better overall individual performer against TYLOO for Divine Vendetta. Let’s talk maps.
First two ban maps for these include Vertigo, and Nuke. Nuke happens to be the typical first choice of Divine, so they have chosen Inferno and Dust2 in their prior two matches with it being banned. Mirage has been and will be TYLOO’s first pick, as they have an 11-map win streak going there. There is really not a map that gives Divine any leverage as TYLOO has been good on virtually all of the maps lately. I will be honest, I don’t think it matters much about what maps are chosen here, as TYLOO has quite the advantage on most, if not all. Going straight to the options.
ANCHOR: Summer – (where most will be going DANK1NG, we can pivot to Summer, who has been top 1-2 in frags in both recent matches)
Top Stacking Options: Summer, Somebody, DANK1NG/Attacker
ANCHOR: PokemoN – (only player to have shown he can hang with TYLOO somewhat)
Top Stacking Options: PokermoN, havoK, DVDOV
TIGER (Ranked 94th in World) vs Beyond (Ranked 79th in World)
Bit of a closer match to end the slate here with another best of three, quarter-final with TIGER and Beyond. TIGER comes in as the favorite of the match sitting at -283 on the money line to win it. Both teams come into this one in similar form with both having won three of their last four matches, however, it is Beyond that is fresh off a 2-0 sweep over Lucid, while TIGER was tasked with facing TYLOO in their most recent resulting in an 0-2 reverse sweep. We do have the most head-to-head data for this match, but it has favored TIGER (hence the betting line) with them winning both matches so far in 2020. In their most recent match just over a month ago in this same event, TIGER secured a 2-1 result winning on Overpass and Mirage, and only dropping Nuke by a 16-14 score to force the decider map. Since we do have some head-to-head history, let’s see who has performed the best against each other in those prior matches. For TIGER, its pretty clear-cut as erkaSt has been a monster individually against Beyond in those matches going for +47 K-D diff, 1.56 K-D, and 1.41 rating. For Beyond, only two sit with positive stat-lines against TIGER and those are Olivia and Kntz and it is very minimal. Let’s go to the projected map analysis.
The first two banned maps for these two include Dust 2 for Beyond, and Vertigo for TIGER. The typical first map choices for these two include Inferno for Beyond, and Dust2 for TIGER, but we know that is a ban. TIGER is choosing Nuke and Mirage the most as the next two first chosen. It appears that Beyond just recently started banning Dust2, so that allowed TIGER to choose Nuke in their most recent map, however, this was a map that had been good to Beyond and it allowed them to win it as well and take that match to three maps. Maybe we see a different map pick for TIGER in this one? I think they would likely go with Mirage, seeing as how it has been a map they have won both times in both matches. So, I am going to say the two maps for this match are Mirage and Inferno. Let’s see who has played the best on these lately. For TIGER on their projected map choice of Mirage (12 map sample) erkaSt is the top play here with a 1.33 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 93.6 ADR. Three others follow him here starting with Kabal at 1.11, nin9 at 1.10, and dobu at 1.06 to round it out. For Inferno (five map sample) it is dobu with the goods here sitting with a 1.22 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. Next is nin9 at 1.21, kabal at 1.19, and lastly, erkaSt at 1.08. For Beyond on their projected map of Inferno (14 map sample) it is Olivia at the top with a 1.05 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.04 IMP, and 71.1 ADR. Just one other follows with qqGOD at 1.03. For Mirage (17 map sample) Olivia once again at the top here with a 1.22 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 80.1 ADR. All other options fit the bill here with Kntz at 1.13, qqGOD at 1.10, MAIROLLS at 1.08, and lastly, stk at 1.04. Maybe Mirage shouldn’t be the first choice for TIGER? We shall see. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: erkaSt – (no brainer, beasted this team twice already and rates well on projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: erkaSt, dobu, nin9/Kabal
ANCHOR: Olivia – (best stat-line against TIGER, and rates out as top play for both maps)
Top Stacking Options: Olivia, qqGOD, Kntz
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: JamYoung, erkaSt, flying, Annihilation, Olivia, Summer/somebody/DANK1NG, Kaze (not in order)
Top Stacks: TIGER, Invictus, TYLOO, ViCi (in order)
Top Values: zhokiNg, Olivia, Summer, somebody, Kntz, Kabal, qqGOD, PokermoN, foxz (not in order)