Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 9
Sean Mitchell breaks down the 2-match Eden Arena Malta Vibes Cup 2 CS:GO DFS slate for Thursday!
What’s up, all! I am still in a state that does not allow me to play DFS until Friday, but didn’t want to leave you guys hanging, and I love writing, so got a tip there was going to be the two-match Eden Arena Malta Vibes Cup 2 Event slate on DK and wanted to write it up for you guys! Now, it is VERY IMPORTANT to note that these two matches are a BEST OF ONE. Let’s see what we got!
forZe (ranked 27th in World) vs SG.pro (Ranked 70th in World)
In the opening match of this best of one series for Eden, we have a couple teams in Group A in forZe and SG.pro. Looking at the current betting odds, forZe is a massive -370 favorite on the money line to win this match. However, the recent form of these two teams is a bit of a different story to tell. ForZe have been losers in three of their last five, with three of those losses coming via the 0-2 sweep, it is noteworthy to not that their two wins were also a sweep of their own, however, not a great look losing on a two-match skid. For SG.pro, they have won three-straight, while also winning four of their last five matches, with three of those being the 2-0 sweep. I do need to mention that the competition these two have faced lately is a bit skewed, as forZe has played a smidge of tougher matches, but can’t over-look teams playing well lately like SG.pro, no matter who they are playing. Unfortunately, we do not have any recent head-to-head history for these two teams, so don’t have that to analyze, but we can take a look at who has performed particularly well for each team over the last month. For forZe (47 map sample over last month), xsepower has been the top performer with a 1.19 rating, 0.74 KPR, nice 0.58 DPR, 1.25 IMP, and 75.1 ADR. FL1T is next with a 1.09 rating, then Jerry at 1.04, almazer at 1.02, and lastly, facecrack at 1.00. For SG.pro (18 map sample over last month) fame leads the team with a 1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 84.9 ADR. Followed by s1natoRRR at 1.20, kise at 1.15, RuFire at 0.99, and Diray at 0.93 to round it out. Let’s head over to the maps section and see if we can find some more angles in the projected maps for this match.
The first two bans for these two include Vertigo for forZe and Inferno for SG.pro. Just so happens that Inferno is the typical first choice for forZe as well, so can throw that one out. The typical first map for SG.pro is Train, but that one will likely be banned as well by forZe. Looks like the next most banned map has been Overpass and Nuke, so I believe that the map selected will be between Mirage and Dust2. Mirage is the only map between the two that has not been banned by either team lately. So, as I always say, we can’t ever feel really confident about a best of one map pick, but I would like to think that Mirage has a more likely chance of being the pick. Let’s see who has performed the best here lately. For forZe (23 map sample) FL1T is the top option here lately sitting with a 1.24 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 86.3 ADR. Xsepower follows him with a 1.16, then its Jerry at 1.04 and facecrack at 1.03 to round out the list. For SG.pro (four map sample) kise is the top option here as well with a 1.32 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 80.8 ADR. Fame is next at 1.28, RuFire at 1.11, and lastly, Diray at 1.01 to end the list. Need I remind that is a very small sample size. To be honest, forZe does have quite a bit of more experience on maps lately, as they have played most of them quite a bit compared to SG.pro, but again, this is a best of one, and these can be won by any team, on any given day. I do have to lean a small amount to forZe, but I don’t think this ends up a total blow-out for forZe and could even see it being within 3-4 rounds as a result. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: xsepower – (The AWP for forZe and his DPR is much safer than the rest of the team, in a best of one you want a bit of a safety net and I think he provides that with some nice upside as well as he has been the best over the last month on the team as well)
Top Stacking Options: xsepower, FL1T, Jerry
ANCHOR: Kise – (Good numbers over last month, sits at the top of projected map selection. It has been he and fame literally top 1-3 in frags over their last five matches as well)
Top Stacking Options: kise, fame, s1natoRRR
HellRaisers (Ranked 53rd in World) vs AGF (Ranked 58th in World)
In the second best of one match for the Eden Event, we also have another one out of Group A. According to the current betting odds, HellRaisers come in as a very slight favorite for this match sitting at -118 on the money line. You also have to lay -110 on AGF as well if you think they are the winner of this match, so the books are pretty much split on this match. The favorite, HellRaisers, actually come into this match in quite the worse form of the two. Losers of their last four of five, with their only winner of the five being a 16-6 best of one against Syman. On the other hand, AGF has won four of their last five matches, and their only loss was to a decent sAw team with a 1-2 result. With that said, at first glance, I believe the AGF maybe should be the favorite in this match, but reminder it’s a best of one! These two teams have played one match in 2020, a 2-0 sweep for AGF with a 16-9 final on Inferno and a 25-21 triple-OT thriller on Dust2. The top performers in that match were JlaYm for HellRaisers with a 61-52 K-D, 1.21 rating, and 92.7 ADR. For AGF, it was TMB with a 65-47 K-D, 1.42 rating, and 95.7 ADR. Let’s see if we can try to narrow down a map selection for this match.
The first two typical map bans have been Mirage and Overpass. The next two include Nuke and Vertigo. Lastly, it looks like Dust2 has been a ban at least in a short-supply for both as well, and Train and Inferno have been the least amount banned lately. Seeing as how Inferno is AGF’s typical first map choice lately, I would expect this one to be banned as well. I could see Train being the map selected here, even though it has been the typical first map chosen by HellRaiser’s lately. It is a map that both have played a ton on lately, quite a bit more than most of the others. I have concluded that this one likely ends up being one of these two teams typical first map pick of Train or Inferno, or we get a middler-map like Dust2. I really don’t think this one will come down as easy as the first match, but I will say for benefit of doubt, I think Train is the more likely one. So, let’s see who has played the best here lately. For HellRaisers (25 map sample) jR has been the best here by a small margin, sitting with a 1.06 rating, 0.68 KPR, 0.97 IMP, and 72.5 ADR. Followed very closely by ProbLeM at 1.05, and JlaYm at 1.01 to end the list. For AGF (13 map sample) no other than TMB himself sits at the top here with a 1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 84 ADR. Both Lukki and fr0slev come in at 1.18 to close out the list here. It is worth noting that AGF does have a fill-in with Kristou, who is/was playing for North. I do believe I like AGF in this match, and I think they are a slightly better team with better form lately. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: jR – (Not the highest KPR on the team, but his DPR is the best over L3 months, and he tops the projected map)
Top Stacking Options: jR, JlaYm, ProbLeM
ANCHOR: TBM – (Believe he is likely my favorite play on this slate and is the clear carry for this team)
Top Stacking Options: TBM, Lukki, fr0slev