Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 7
Sean Mitchell breaks down the 2-match Nine to Five 1 Event slate for CS:GO DFS today!
We are back for another two-match slate in the Nine to Five 1 Event for this Tuesday, July 7th! Hopefully, we get another slate larger than two-matches soon, but we will just have to take what we get! Let’s see what we have in store for today. Reminder that these are best of three series, and the two lineup constructions I have found that work the best for this size of slate is either 3x3 or 3x2x1.
sAw (Ranked 38th in World) vs CR4ZY (Ranked 71st in World)
Both of the matches that we have on the slate today are from the Swiss round 2 for teams that have a 1-0 record so far in this event. Looking at GG.BET at the current betting odds for this match, they are listing sAw as a hefty -385 favorite to win this first best of three match on the slate. Looking at recent form for these two squads, it does seem that sAw had been on a slight roll, winning four of their last five, and are fresh off a 2-1 result in their most recent match. CR4ZY is also fresh off a 2-1 win of their own but had dropped their prior two matches before that. These two teams have not faced off against each other recently, so no head-to-head data to analyze. With that said, I like to see how players have performed individually over the last month or so. For sAw, (36 map sample) stadodo has led the team over the last month with a 1.17 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 75.8 ADR. Three others behind him in rating for the team yet have higher KPRs include JUST at 0.74 KPR/0.63 DPR, 73.1 Kill-ASST%, MUTiRiS at 0.73 KPR, 0.66 DPR, 1.19 IMP, 81.5 ADR, and lastly, rmn at 0.72 KPR, 0.67 DPR, 75.4 ADR. For CR4ZY, (33 map sample) SENSEi is at the top with a 1.14 rating, 0.71 KPR, very nice 0.56 DPR, 1.12 IMP, and 71.5 ADR. DemQQ next with 1.13 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.19 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Sergiz has also been good, sporting a 1.08 rating for that span as well. Let’s see what maps we can narrow down for these two.
The first two ban maps lately have included Dust2 for CR4ZY, and Mirage for sAw. The first two typical map choices lately have been Nuke for CR4ZY, and Vertigo for sAw. CR4ZY has seen Nuke be exclusively the best map lately for them lately, as they have won it at an 86% success rate over their last seven attempts, however, sAw has a seven-map winning streak going on Nuke as well, so this map will most definitely be a crucial one for CR4ZY if they want to see this go to three maps, because Vertigo has been the second most played map for sAw lately. I do believe these are the two maps we get, so let’s see who has performed well on these lately. For sAw on their projected map choice of Vertigo (14 map sample) rmn is the top performer here lately with a 1.11 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 79.6 ADR. He is followed by two teammates starting with MUTiRiS at 1.08, and JUST right at the threshold of 1.0. For Nuke (15 map sample) MUTiRiS is a big fan of Nuke as he is carrying a hefty 1.35 rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.41 IMP, and 91.9 ADR. All other options fit the bill here as well with rmn at 1.25, stadodo at 1.17, JUST at 1.14, and arki at 1.03. For CR4ZY on their projected map choice of Nuke (seven map sample) DemQQ has been quite the beast here lately, rolling out a 1.55 rating, 0.96 KPR, 1.75 IMP, and 101.5 ADR. Three others to follow starting with SENSEi at 1.38, Psycho at 1.24, and Sergiz at 1.19. For Vertigo (five map sample) SENSEi has been the best here lately with a 1.21 rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.49 DPR, 1.24 IMP, and 73.2 Kill-Asst%. Sergiz was right at his heels with also a 1.21 rating, but his DPR was a bit higher at 0.64, but KPR was a smidge higher at 0.75, also DemQQ sits at 1.06, and Psycho at 1.00. I truly think this could have a legit shot at going to three maps, where likely sAw’s more experience on maps would like pay dividends? I think that the numbers individually for CR4ZY on Nuke are pretty insane, and I am sure it has been against lower-tier competition; however, they have been rolling there lately, and I like them to really have a shot of winning their map pick. This match could get pretty salty, and I like the stack-ability of it. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: MUTiRiS – (Rates out very well on Nuke also, not to mention second on their map choice of Vertigo, and seems like one of the more consistent players with a chance to carry)
Top Stacking Options: MUTiRiS, rmn, Stadodo
ANCHOR: SENSEi – (His DPRs are marvelous, as well as KPRs, and he has tops over last month, and top 1-2 on both projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: SENSEi, DemQQ, Sergiz (value on Psycho)
AVEZ (Ranked 63rd in World) vs Illuminar (Ranked 54th in World)
Our next best of three series should be quite a match, as we have a couple top-60 teams facing off. The current betting lines also reflect that the books believe this one will be close as Illuminar is listed as a slight favorite of -145 on the money line currently. AVEZ comes in fresh off a 2-0 sweep over Nexuz but had dropped their prior two matches before doing so, and Illuminar have won two of their last three by a 2-1 result but have also dropped three of their last five. These two do have a small amount of recent head-to-head data to go off of, as they have played twice now in 2020. They split those matches 1-1, however, both went the full distance of three maps. All relatively close games in those six maps as well, with four of the six seeing the loser secure at least double-digit round wins even in losses. Since we do have a small bit of data here, let’s see the top performers for these head-to-heads. For AVEZ, (6 map sample) KEi was is carrying the best overall stat-line against Illuminar over this span with a +19 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.24 rating. Markos was the only other player for AVEZ to record a positive stat-line at +15 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.09 rating. For Illuminar (same 6 maps), three player options come in nicely here beginning with reatz at +18 K-D diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.15 rating, followed by mouz at +16 K-D diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.09 rating, and last but not least, Snax at +13 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, and 1.15 rating. Let’s look at some projected map picks.
The typical first two ban maps for these include Mirage for AVEZ and Inferno for Illuminar. The typical first maps chosen lately has been Nuke for Illuminar and Overpass for AVEZ. Both of these squads have played Nuke ample times lately, but it is Illuminar with the slight edge here, as they have won it at a 64% clip over their last 11 tries, compared to just a 47% success rate for AVEZ over their last 15 attempts. Overpass could present a slight edge for AVEZ here due to the fact that they have played it over 3x as much as Illuminar lately (16 to 5). The success rate favors Illuminar 60%-56%, however, the experience factor, coupled with the fact that this is obviously a favorite map for AVEZ gives them the slight edge in my opinion. I do feel pretty confident that these are the two maps chosen, so let’s see the individual best performers here lately. For AVEZ on their projected map choice of Overpass (16 map sample) KEi is the leader here with a 1.23 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 89.4 ADR. He is nearly met next by Markos at 1.22, byali at 1.19, and Kylar at 1.08 to round it out. For Nuke (15 map sample) it is KEi once again at the top with a 1.09 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 85.7 ADR. Once again, followed closely by Markos at 1.08, and Kylar at 1.05 to end the list. For Illuminar on their projected map choice of Nuke (11 map sample) Snax is the lead here with a 1.29 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.32 IMP, and 85.7 ADR. Next is reatz at 1.24, innocent at 1.10, mouz at 1.08, and lastly, Vegi at 1.01. For Overpass (5 map sample) reatz is the lead here with a 1.24 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 85.8 ADR. Innocent comes in next at 1.17, Snax at 1.11, and lastly, mouz at 1.04. I think this will also be a lot closer match as well. Not only does the betting line reflect that, these maps could literally go either way for these two. Wouldn’t be shocked to see this one go the full three-map distance as well to be quite honest. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: KEi – (Top rated player, he is the carry for this team usually)
Top Stacking Options: KEi, Markos, Kylar
ANCHOR: reatz – (Where everyone will likely go Snax, I like the value on reatz, as he’s been playing very well lately, and rates out well on both projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: reatz, Snax, mouz