Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 3
Sean Mitchell brings you all you need with his favorite plays, stacks, values, and projected map analysis for Friday's three-match CS:GO DFS slate!
Happy Friday, fam! We have a three-match slate on tap for today as the CS_Summit 6 Event continues to wind down before getting into the playoff schedule. For this Friday the day before the 4th of July holiday, we have two upper-bracket finals matches for both Europe and North America, along with a 5th and 6th place-decider match as well. Let’s jump right in!
Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World) vs BIG (Ranked 7th in World)
It is very arguably debatable that team BIG is the best overall team in CS:GO at the current moment, and they have done nothing but win lately. They do get a pretty stiff test for this best of three upper-bracket final of the Europe region against Vitality however. The current betting odds are listing BIG as a -137 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams come into this match with just one loss apiece in their last five matches. BIG dropped a 1-2 result to OG four matches ago, while Vitality dropped a 1-2 result to Complexity also, but have won four-straight since that loss. These two teams have not played any matches so far in 2020 but played twice in 2019. A best of three in the StarSeries i-League Season 7 and a best of one match at IEM Katowice 2019. Vitality was the winner in both of these matches, including a 2-0 sweep in the most recent being the best of three with map results of 16-11 on Overpass and 16-8 on Dust2. However, it is very important to note that both of the teams had players on their squad that are no longer with the team, so the data is a bit too old to place much weight onto. With that said, let’s jump into the projected map picks to see if it can shine some new light on this match.
The first two ban map picks for these two include Train for both as the typical first ban. The second most banned for these two includes Overpass, mostly by BIG. The typical first map choices lately have been Dust2 for BIG and Nuke for Vitality. It is key to note that BIG has a seven-map winning streak on Nuke lately and have won roughly 80% of their last 19 tries there as well. Vitality is hovering a smidge under 60% in success rate on Nuke over their last 10 attempts. Guess what? BIG also has a seven-map win streak going on Dust2, where they have also won 83% of their last 23 tries there as well. So, it is pretty safe to say that BIG seems to have just a bit of a slight edge on the projected map choices to say the least. Let’s see who is performing the best lately on these maps. For Vitality on their projected map choice of Nuke (19 map sample) shocker but ZywOo leads the team here with a 1.27 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.30 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. One other follows him here and that is apEX at 1.10. For Dust2 (19 map sample) ZywOo again in the lead with a 1.25 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 82 ADR. Three teammates fit the bill here with him starting with shox at 1.16, RpK at 1.05, and misutaaa sits right at 1.0. For BIG on their projected map choice of Dust2 (23 map sample) XANTARES sits at the top with a 1.24 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 80 ADR. All other options follow here starting with syrsoN at 1.22, tabseN at 1.19, tiziaN at 1.14, and last but not least, k1to at 1.12. For Nuke (19 map sample) tabseN has been a beast here lately with a 1.29 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.42 IMP, and 90 ADR. Once again, all others follow here with syrsoN at 1.27, XANTARES at 1.18, tiziaN at 1.12, and k1to at 1.01. I believe the proof is in the pudding here and BIG are just a super strong team. Vitality will get all they want and more in this match, and I have to side with the books as I think BIG will win this match. Maybe even a 2-0 sweep. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (no detail needed here)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, apEX/RpK
ANCHOR: tabseN – (Rates really well on Nuke, a map I’m pretty sure will be played and has been damn good lately just overall)
Top Stacking Options: tabseN, XANTARES, syrsoN
Fnatic (Ranked 5th in World) vs GODSENT (Ranked 28th in World)
The second match of the day features a best of three to see who finishes 5th and 6th in the Europe region. The current betting odds have fnatic listed as a pretty heavy favorite at -244 on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams are fresh off losses with fnatic being dealt two over their last two matches after reeling off three straight sweeps, and GODSENT was a loser to OG yesterday to send them to this finisher match. These two teams have only played one time in 2020, with fnatic coming out with a 2-1 victory. Fnatic was able to secure 16-3 (Train) and 16-14 (Inferno), to GODSENT’s 19=15 only game-win on Nuke. The top performers for this match included KRIMZ for fnatic with a 69-49 K-D, 1.26 rating, and 79.1 ADR. For GODSENT it was Farlig with the best stat-line at 60-53 with a 1.11 rating, and 78.5 ADR. Let’s check out some projected map analysis.
The first two ban maps for these two include Vertigo for fnatic and Mirage for GODSENT. The two typical map choices for these two lately have been Nuke for GOD and Inferno for fnatic. Fnatic get quite the edge in success-rate over GOD on their choice of Inferno, as fnatic have won this map at a 63% clip in their last 19 attempts compared to just 15% of GOD’s last 13. Nuke hasn’t been great to fnatic either, as they have only been able to win this map on just 38% of their last 16 opportunities there, while GOD is carrying a modest 62%-win clip over their last 13 tries. Let’s see who is performing the best lately on these two maps. For fnatic on their projected map choice of Inferno (19 map sample) JW has somehow risen to the top of the team here lately with a 1.10 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 74 ADR. Three others follow him here with flusha at 1.09, KRIMZ at 1.08, and Brollan at 1.07. For Nuke (16 map sampe) Brollan is at the top with just a 1.06 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 77.7 ADR. Followed by only JW at 1.01. For GOD on their projected map choice of Nuke (14 map sample) it is Farlig still at the top with a hefty 1.31 rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.44 IMP, and 86.6 ADR. Just one other makes the list here and that is STYKO at 1.19. For Inferno (16 map sample) Farlig once again at the lead with a 1.17 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 71 ADR. Three others join him here with zehN at 1.09, Maden at 1.07, and finally STYKO at 1.02. To be flat out honest, I have changed my stance since last night, and I believe I am going to be backing Fnatic pretty heavy today. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Brollan – (No need to over-think this, he is the stud on this team now)
Top Stacking Options: Brollan, KRIMZ, flusha (JW has value)
ANCHOR: Farlig – (Same as Brollan, this is the main character of this story still and he rates out massively on most maps)
Top Stacking Options: Farlig, STYKO, zehN/Maden
Liquid (Ranked 10th in World) vs Evil Geniuses (Ranked 8th in World)
The third and final best of three match for Friday’s slate is the upper-bracket final for the North America region between Liquid and EG. The current betting odds have this match split right down the middle with both teams sitting around -115 on the money line to win. EG has been on quite the tear lately, winning all five of their last five matches with three coming via the 2-0 sweep, while Liquid bounced-back with two straight wins of their own after losing to EG via the reverse sweep. So, one could say that this definitely has a bit of a revenge narrative for Liquid. These two teams are so very familiar with each other and have played numerous times lately with EG winning the last two matches 2-0 and 2-1, while Liquid had won the previous three in a row before that by three straight 2-0 sweeps. Since we have lots of head-to-head data to go off of, let’s see who has performed the best against each other lately. For Liquid, (12 map sample) EliGe sits with the best overall stat-line with a +48 K-D diff, 1.22 K-D, and 1.23 rating. Both NAF and Twist both also have positive stat-lines against EG as well over this sample. For EG, (same 12 map sample) Brehze tops the list with a +41 K-D diff, 1.19 K-D, and 1.17 rating. Only one other player other than Brehze sits with a positive stat-line against Liquid over that span and it is CeRq. Let’s look at some projected map analysis.
Over the last five matches played, Dust2 and Nuke have shown up the most at four out of the five times, with Inferno showing up three times. The first two typical ban maps for these two include Overpass for EG and Train for Liquid. The typical first map choices lately have been Inferno for EG and Mirage for Liquid. It seems that both of these teams have tried to play map strategy against each other in the prior matches, and it has literally been a combination of Inferno, Nuke, and Dust2. Dust2 has only been chosen as the first pick once, so I think we can possibly say that Nuke and Inferno will be higher of probability to be the once chosen. Let’s see who has performed well lately on these maps. For Liquid on their projected map choice of Nuke (11 map sample) NAF tips the scales here with a 1.21 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.22 IMP, and 80.7 ADR. EliGe follows with a 1.14, and Twistzz rounds out the list at 1.06. For Inferno (11 map sample) Twistzz has been strong here lately showing a 1.23 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 79.4 ADR. Next, NAF sits at 1.13, and EliGe ends the list at 1.10. For Evil Geniuses on their projected map choice of Inferno (15 map sample) Ethan still tops the team here with a 1.27 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. All others follow him here starting with Brehze at 1.15, CeRq at 1.14, Stanislaw at 1.08, and Tarik at 1.07. For Nuke (12 map sample) Brehze is the lead here with a 1.15 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.04 IMP, and 81.3 ADR. Just two others follow here with CeRq at 1.14 and Ethan at the stopping point of 1.0. I think this should be a really close match. Both of these teams have traded winning streaks against each other and mentioned the small revenge narrative for Liquid. I do think that EG will wind up being chalk, as they have been on the last few slates, but this isn’t as easy of a match for them. I think this could easily turn into a three-map affair as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: NAF – (When everyone else goes EliGe, I think NAF should have some major value, especially if the price is down)
Top Stacking Options: NAF, EliGe, Twistzz
ANCHOR: CeRq – (Been just so solid lately, dude has been shooting lights out and carrying his team really)
Top Stacking Options: CeRq, Brehze, Ethan (Stanislaw has been ballin’ lately and has value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, Farlig, CeRq, Brollan, tabseN, NAF
Top Stacks: BIG, GODSENT, Liquid
Top Values: Brehze, STYKO, Twistzz, JW, stanislaw