Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO July 2
Sean Mitchell breaks down all four CS:GO DFS matches for Thursday's CS_Summit 6 slate with his favorite plays, stacks, values, and projected map analysis!
Another four-match slate on tap today in the CS_Summit 6 Event for this Thursday, July 2nd! We have a couple of place-decider matches, along with two lower-bracket semi and finals matches as well. Let’s jump in!
GODSENT (Ranked 28th in World) vs OG (Ranked 21st in World)
In our opening best of three match of the day for the Event, we have a lower-bracket semi-final between GODSENT and OG. The current betting odds are listing list a split-favorite with both garnering -115 on the money line. Both of these teams come into this match in decent form as GODSENT has won three of its loss four, with those three wins coming via the 2-0 sweep over NiP, G2, and Mousesports, with their only loss coming from literally likely the best team in CS:GO at the moment in BIG. OG is fresh off an 0-2 reverse sweep loss to Vitality but had won their prior four matches in a row before being dealt the loss, so they will be looking to get back on track here and advance in the lower bracket. These two squads have only played one match in recent memory, and it was in March of 2020 for the Europe Minor Closed Qualifier for the ESL One Rio of 2020. GODSENT came out the victor in this match, but it did take them three full maps to get there. The top performers in this match were zehN for GODSENT with a 79-61 K-D, with a 1.31 rating and 95.6 ADR. STYKO also have a heck of a match with a 72-59 K-D, 1.26 rating, and 90.6 ADR as well. For OG, Valde and NBK- both had over 60 frags, but Valde has the best line with 65-57 K-D, 1.09 rating, and 73.9 ADR. Let’s look at some projected map picks for any additional information.
The two first ban maps for these two include Mirage for GODSENT and Vertigo for OG. The two typical first map choices lately have been Mirage for OG (banned by GOD), and Nuke for GODSENT. Believe there is a good chance we see OG pick Inferno, as it is a map they have played very well and are carrying a six-map winning streak on lately. Not to mention the fact that GODSENT has only won EIGHT percent of their last 12 attempts on Inferno. That is not good, fam. However, Nuke does present a small edge for GODSENT, but not much as GOD has won 67% of their last 12 tries there, while OG has won a modest 54% of their last 13 opportunities. There is always a chance that GODSENT does play a bit of map strategy here, as Overpass has been a pretty strong map for them lately, winning seven of their last 10 there, while OG has only won 25% of their last eight attempts there. I believe it would be in GODSENT’s best interest to pick a weaker map for OG, but I could see them sticking with Nuke, but I honestly feel it could be either. I’ll go ahead and stick with Nuke for benefit of the doubt, and now we can see who has performed the best lately on Nuke and Inferno. For OG on their projected map choice of Inferno (15 map sample) mantuu tops the team with a 1.09 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.01 IMP, and 67.8 ADR. All other options for OG sit above a 1.05 rating here starting with valde at 1.09 as well, ISSAA at 1.07, NBK- at 1.06, and lastly, Aleksib at 1.05. For Nuke (13 map sample) valde leads the team here with a 1.10 rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.95 IMP, and 73 ADR. Followed by three teammates beginning with mantuu at 1.09, Aleksib at 1.07, and finally NBK- at 1.06. For GODSENT on their projected map choice of Nuke (13 map sample) Farlig leads the way with a massive 1.33 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 86.8 ADR. Two others fit the bill here with STYKO at 1.19, and zehN at the plateau of 1.0. For Inferno (15 map sample) Farlig is the top here once again with a 1.16 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 70.4 ADR. Two others once again follow him up here with zehN at 1.04 and Maden at 1.03. After reviewing everything we have here, it really seems like this will be quite a good match to be honest. We saw a full three-map affair in their only match played and their map picks could easily be won by the respective team. I feel that OG will be looking to get back on track after the 0-2 sweep by Vitality, and this is also a small revenge narrative after losing that match these two played in March. Not to mention the fact that OG has been the only team in a short minute that has beaten BIG as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Farlig – (He continues to be very good, rates out very highly with lovely KPRs, and has nice upside as a carrier)
Top Stacking Options: Farlig, zehN, STYKO (Maden is there for value once again)
ANCHOR: mantuu – (We have seen this kid have some really nice maps lately, he is very talented, and he can carry his team when needed)
Top Stacking Options: mantuu, valde, NBK-
North (Ranked 27th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
Our second best of three match of the day is a place-decider which will decide the 7th and 8th place finishing teams for the Europe region. The current betting odds are listing NiP as hefty favorites of -315 on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams are fresh off a two-loss skid, NiP has been dealt back-to-back 0-2 sweeps by GODSENT and fnatic, and North was dealt a sweep from Heroic and a 1-2 loss result by OG. Obviously with those losses for both, it has put them right here facing each other for placing. These two squads have played once, but it was in 2019 in the ESL Pro League Season 10 Europe region, and North handed NiP a 2-0 sweep with scores of 16-5 on Nuke and 22-19 on Overpass. The top performers in that match were aizy for North with a 55-38 K-D, 1.34 rating, and 94.2 ADR. Plopski was the leader, and only positive stat-line for NiP, with a 46-41 K-D, 1.09 rating, and 78.4 ADR. Let’s take a look at some projected map picks for this match.
The two first ban maps for these two include Dust2 for NiP, and Mirage for North. North is picking Vertigo roughly 40% of the time as their first map choice, with NiP going with Overpass at a 38% margin. I believe that there should be little to no reason to see any curveballs thrown by either team, as these are the maps they have currently played the most lately. However, Vertigo doesn’t present an edge for North, as NiP has won this map roughly 65% of the time over their last 11 times played there, compared to North’s 50% success rate over their last 20 attempts. Overpass is the same way, except North has the slight success rate edge at 62% over their last 13 tries, compared to NiP’s 57% over their last 14. Let’s see who has been performing at these maps lately. For North on their projected map choice of Vertigo (20 map sample) both aizy and MSL lead with a 1.14 rating and both are hovering around a 0.75 KPR. Aizy has a bit of a better Kill-Asst%, but MSL has a bit more of an IMP with the AWP. Those are the only two player options for North over a 1.0 rating on this map. For Overpass (13 map sample) aizy leads this one with a 1.24 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 85.2 ADR. All others follow him here with gade at 1.10, cajunb at 1.09, and both krsiou and MSL at 1.02. For NiP on their projected map pick of Overpass (14 map sample) recently twist has become the top player here lately with that AWP-prowess sitting with a 1.24 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and a 79.7 ADR. Three others follow him in REZ right behind at 1.23, nawwk at 1.17, and Plopski at 1.04. For Vertigo (11 map sample) Plopski is the leader here with a 1.22 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.29 IMP, and 76.5 ADR. Three others follow here as well with REZ next once again at 1.20, twist at 1.12, and nawwk rounds it out at 1.01. I believe I have to side with the massive chalk in this one and back NiP. Feel on a DFS-front, they have the much better-looking individual stats for the projected map choices. Let’s look at those options.
ANCHOR: aizy – (Tops both projected map picks, and had the best stat-line against NiP in their lone match)
Top Stacking Options: aizy, MSL, gade/cajunb
ANCHOR: twist – (Going with a value captain here, but I’ll say I could see REZ or Plopski as capts as well, but I feel for the two projected map picks being quite generous to the AWP guys, I like twist quite a damn bit for this one)
Top Stacking Options: twist, REZ, Plopski (nawwk is typically higher priced, but don’t mind him if you wanna go there)
FURIA (Ranked 6th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 20th in World)
The third match on the slate will determine who finishes in 5th and 6th place for the North America region. The current betting odds are favoring FURIA pretty heavily in this one as they are listed as -295 favorites on the money line to win it. Both teams come into this match fresh off a loss, with FURIA losing an 0-2 result to Liquid, while Cloud9 was out-lasted by Gen.G in a three-map affair. With that said, we can feel pretty strongly that both of these teams will be looking to get back into the win column, along with a 5th place finish and $6.5K in prize money. It is worth noting that the pay jump from 6th to 5th is an extra $2k as well, so this one will be somewhat worth winning. These two teams haven’t faced each other since 2019, and this was a totally different looking Cloud9 team, as they were “Singularity” at this time and had two unfamiliar faces as well. Since we do not have any recent head-to-head data to go off of for this match, we will head over to the projected map picks.
The two first ban maps for these two include Dust2 for FURIA and Mirage for Cloud9. The first picks for these two squads include Overpass for Cloud9 and Vertigo for FURIA. However, I could see a major reason for Cloud9 to go with Train here instead. For one, they have played this map almost double the amount of times they have played Overpass lately, and two, FURIA has had equal the success on Overpass lately (in less maps played) as Cloud9 has had. Train would present a small edge for Cloud9 as well, as they have had a 64% success rate on it over their last 14 trips there, while FURIA is sporting just a 50%-win clip there over their last six tries. I am going to think that Cloud9 plays this one smart and goes with Train. So, let’s see who has been performing well for Vertigo and Train. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Vertigo (18 map sample) yuurih and his AWP love some Vertigo and he leads the team here with a 1.21 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 85.9 ADR. Three others make the list here with arT at 1.19, HEN1 at 1.14, and KSCERATO at 1.09. For Train (six map sample) yuurih tops the scales here by quite the margin with a 1.30 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.42 IMP, and 91 ADR. Three others also follow here with VINI next at 1.07, KSCERATO at 1.06, and HEN1 rounds it out at 1.0 For Cloud9 on their projected map choice of Train (14 map sample) oSee is at the top of the list here with a 1.22 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Floppy comes in next at 1.12, and Sonic at 1.09 to end the list. For Vertigo (10 map sample) floppy is the leader here with a 1.12 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 84 ADR. Three others follow behind starting with Sonic at 1.10, oSee at 1.07, and motm at 1.03. As much as I would love to show my homerism here to FURIA, I think this one will be closer than the odds are listing it as. I don’t think it will be a blow-out 2-0 sweep, but it also wouldn’t shock me. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one be very close and even go three maps. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: yuurih – (both maps are AWP paradise and he rates out the best on both)
Top Stacking Options: yuurih, arT, KSCERATO (HEN1 is there as well, but arT has been playing well lately)
ANCHOR: oSee – (Going with the opposite AWP here also, rates out well and he has also been pretty stellar as of late)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, Sonic
100 Thieves (Ranked 19th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 18th in World)
In our final best of three match of the day for the CS_Summit 6 event we have the Lower-bracket final match between 100 Thieves and Gen.G. Both were dealt losses in their prior matches with Liquid out-lasting 100 Thieves in three maps, and Evil Geniuses taking are of business and making short work of Gen.G in two maps yesterday. Per the current betting odds for the match, the Thieves are listed as the favorite at the moment sitting at -125 on the money line to win this match. Both teams had been on mini-win streaks before being dealt losses placing them both here in the lower-bracket final, with only one having a chance to remain in the tournament and moving on. 100T had swept both C9 and Chaos, while Gen.G had dealt losses to C9 and Chaos as well prior to the loss. These two teams have played two matches so far in 2020, with them both splitting a sweep a piece. 100 Thieves were the victors in the most recent match just a month or so ago in the DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 Event, while Gen.G’s sweep came at the Road to Rio Event in April. Since we have a small four-map sample for these two, let’s see who the best performers were in these matches. Jks leads the team for 100T with a +12 K-D diff, 1.18 K-D, and 1.18 rating. For Gen.G, it was BnTeT with a +11 K-D diff, 1.16 K-D, and 1.16 rating. Let’s take a look at the projected map picks for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two include Overpass for both, with the next most banned for both being Mirage for 100T, and Nuke for Gen.G. The first picks for these two lately have been Vertigo for 100T, and Train for Gen.G. It seems that in the past there have been some map strategy plays to take either one of these off their typical map picks, as it seems Mirage is a very good map for Gen.G, and Gen.G have also taken away Vertigo in one as well. I really think we could see an array of map selections here to be quite honest. It really truly depends on who gets the first ban pick. In the prior two matches, we saw Overpass and Train, and Dust2 and Mirage. There literally is no consistency to go by. I really could sit here and debate out likely 4-5 scenarios, and I would bet money it would end up being one, however, trying to nail down this match is quite tougher than any other match I’ve projected maps for. For that, I believe its best to not list individual stats for maps that may not even be played due to the uncertainty. Last thing we need when choosing players is to have a skewed sense or facet from a vague source, so I will skip that for this match. I do think I have said this many times now, but I really do not have much confidence as a whole in Gen.G. I just don’t think they are a very good team and feel as since they have a weaker draw in the North America region, they are almost grand-fathered in, per say. Either way, I feel the Thieves will win this one, could easily see it go three maps depending on what combo of maps are selected as well. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: jks – (If you have every watched more than one match for this team, you know that jks AKA Justin Savage, is not just savage because it’s his real last name, the dude is talented and is a savage on the server also)
Top Stacking Options: jks, Gratisfaction, AZR (jkaem is always in play)
ANCHOR: BnTeT – (best numbers against the Thieves and is one of the more consistent players on the team)
Top Stacking Options: BnTeT, autimatic, koosta (daps has been playing pretty well lately and could be value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: jks, yuurih, Farlig, aizy, oSee
Top Stacks: FURIA, 100T, NiP, OG
Top Values: Valde, Gratisfaction, STYKO, arT, jkaem, gade