Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 30
Sean Mitchell breaks down all four matches for Tuesday's CS_Summit 6 CS:GO DFS slate with his favorite plays, values, stacks, and also projected map analysis!
For Tuesday we have yet another CS_Summit 6 four-match slate beginning at 12 PM ET, with two from the Europe region and two from the North America region! The Europe region has a couple decider matches, while North America region is still weeding out upper-and-lower bracket structure. Let’s jump in.
NiP (Ranked 13th in World) vs GODSENT (Ranked 28th in World)
In the first match of the day we have a lower-bracket round one match out of the Europe region featuring both losers from Monday’s slate in NiP and GODSENT. Both teams were handled in pretty easy fashion by their counterparts in fnatic and BIG. This will obviously be the last resort that either of these teams have a chance to advance in this tournament. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, NiP comes in as a -225 favorite on the money line to win it. Both of these teams were fresh off two wins before losing in their most recent matches, so had been looking good until they met their road-blocks leading them to facing each other. These two teams have faced off just once this year at the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe, where NiP took care of business in a 2-0 sweep with scores of 16-4 on Overpass and 16-14 on Nuke. Since we do not have much head-to-head data to go off of, we head straight to the projected map analysis for this match.
The first ban maps for these two include Dust2 for NiP and Mirage for GODSENT. The typical first map choices lately for these two have been Nuke for GODSENT and Overpass for NiP. However, seeing that GODSENT has actually done quite well on Overpass lately winning it seven out of their last ten tries, this could make NiP roll onto Vertigo, a map that GODSENT has only won three of their last six attempts on, compared to their 70% success rate there lately. However, we did see that NiP torched them on this map in their match earlier this year with a 16-4 final score, so we could easily see a replica of the first match in terms of map choices, and I think there could be a fair chance we do. For NiP on their projected map choice of Overpass (10 map sample) REZ is the new top-dog here lately with a 1.22 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 87.3 ADR. Plopski is next with a 1.20, then twist with a 1.12, and nawwk right at the mark with a 1.0. For Nuke (10 map sample) only two NiP options fit the bill here with nawwk leading at 1.10 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 78.9 ADR. Only other one is Plopski at 1.02. For GODSENT on their typical choice of Nuke (13 map sample) Farlig leads the list with a 1.33 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 86.6 ADR. Two others make the list here starting with zehN at 1.16, and lastly STYKO at 1.14 to round it out. For Overpass (10 map sample) Maden is the leader of the team on Overpass sitting with a 1.27 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.30 IMP, and 90 ADR. Three others follow him here starting with Farlig at 1.21, STYKO at 1.19, and zehN at 1.14. I’ll be honest here, after looking over the map data, I believe NiP being such a large favorite here is quite a mistake. I think GODSENT was ran up against a damn good BIG team on Monday and they were humbled after two nice sweep wins over Mouse and G2. I don’t believe NiP should be a 2-to-1 favorite in this match, and I think there is some nice value on GODSENT in this match, as I feel they will fly quite under-the-radar with getting swept yesterday. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: REZ – (REZ continues to put up nice numbers lately, tops Overpass a likely choice for NiP, and has really good assist numbers as well lately. Like the value he has)
Top Stacking Options: REZ, Plopski, nawwk
ANCHOR: Farlig – (Believe this is a much better match up for Farlig against NiP than he had to deal with against BIG, also not to mention he rates out well on both maps and has major upside to boot)
Top Stacking Options: Farlig, STYKO, Maden (zehN for value)
G2 (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Movistar Riders (Ranked 33rd in World)
The second best of three match of the day, and second in the Europe region, is actually a 9th place decider semi-final match, so between this match and the next match, the two winners will move into the next match with the winner of it claiming 9th place, with the loser getting 10th, and the two losers of these matches claiming the 11th and 12th place for this tournament. Currently, G2 is the largest favorite on the slate at a whopping -520 on the money line to win this match. These two teams have only played once, and it was in 2020 at the ESL One: Road to Rio tournament. G2 dominated that match, winning Vertigo 16-1, while also winning Inferno 16-12. G2 comes in losing three of their last four matches, losing their last two by the 0-2 sweep to both fnatic and GODSENT. Movistar Riders have lost two of their last three best of three series, with their only win being a 2-0 sweep over FATE. Interestingly enough, AmaNEk had the best numbers in the only match these two played earlier this year with a 44-24 K-D, 104.4 ADR, and 1.75 rating. Both huNter- and KennyS both have very nice games as well. For Movistar, loWel out-fragged his teammates leading to a 32-35 K-D, obviously not the greatest of stat-lines, but it was a 2-0 sweep in the favor of G2 as mentioned. Since we do not have much head-to-head data here, and the simple fact that G2 is a massive favorite, let’s see what the projected maps look like.
The first two banned map choices for these two squads lately has been Dust2 for Movistar and Overpass for G2. The typical first map choices have been Inferno for Movistar and Dust2 for G2. The next highest chosen first map choice for G2 has been Vertigo, so likely we could see them end up there as we know Dust2 will be banned. I think we can pretty confidently say that these two have the most likelihood of being the two maps chosen. Let’s see who has played well on these lately. For G2 on their projected choice of Vertigo (10 map sample) kennyS and the AWP are obviously always a good bet on Vertigo and he leads them here as well with a 1.21 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 77.4 ADR. Followed by all of his teammates on this map starting with nexa 1.13, huNter- at 1.12, and both JaCkz and AmaNEk at 1.07 as well. For Inferno (5 map sample) huNter- leads the way with a 1.18 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.03 IMP, and 89.3 ADR. Only two others for G2 top a 1.0 rating here starting with AmaNEk at 1.08, and KennyS sitting right there at 1.0. For Movistar Riders on their projected map choice of Inferno (25 map sample) alex tops the list here with a 1.15 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 76.8 ADR. All other options also fit the bill here as well starting with mopoz at 1.14, loWel at 1.11, EasTor at 1.01, and steel sitting at the threshold of 1.0. For Vertigo (15 map sample) alex also leads here with a 1.09 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 77.3 ADR. Only two others fall within that category for Vertigo, starting once again with mopoz at 1.03, and lastly loWel at 1.0. Obviously, the books aren’t giving MRs much credit here, and given the fact that G2 already swept them once this year, we can tell the G2 is the better squad. G2 has been known to donk-off some leads as well, so I know it sounds cliché, but anything really can happen on a CS:GO server, but I am not really counting on MRs winning a map here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: kennyS – (In any chance that we get G2 on Vertigo – the main two I’ll be looking at will be kennyS and huNter- at the capt spot)
Top Stacking Options: kennyS, huNter-, nexa (AmaNEk has obviously had success in the lone match and could be nice value)
ANCHOR: alex – (Easily their best overall player, rates out the highest for both projected map choices on the team also)
Top Stacking Options: alex, mopoz, loWel
ENCE (Ranked 17th in World) vs FaZe (Ranked 4th in World)
The second best of three match that will also provide a winner to play for either 9th or 10th place here in the Europe region is ENCE and FaZe. Currently the books have FaZe listed as a -230 favorite on the money line to win this match. These two squads have played twice this year so far, and both matches saw the full distance of three maps. Not only did both matches see three maps, the maps were the exact same both matches with Nuke, Mirage, and Dust2. FaZe won both matches however, both by a 2-1 result obviously, and all but one game of the six did not see the loser of the game win over 10 rounds, so very close matches as well typically. Both teams come in to this one with pretty horrendous form lately, as FaZe have dropped four of their last five matches, while ENCE has also dropped four of their last five. So, both of these teams are pretty hard-up for a win in this one. Since we do have a 6-map sample to go off of, let’s see who performed the best against each other in those two matches for these two. For ENCE, not a single option for their team had a positive stat-line over the six maps played, and the best was sergej with a -4 K-D diff, 0.96 K-D, and 0.98 rating. For FaZe, rain actually has the best stat-line sitting with a +35 K-D diff, 1.33 K-D, and 1.27 rating, followed by coldzera at +24 K-D diff, 1.25 K-D, and 1.12 rating. Now, let’s take a look to see if the maps have changed much, if any at all since the last time these two played.
Vertigo is actually the typical first map banned lately for both of these teams, I believe it just depends on who gets the first ban option. If ENCE get it, and ban Vertigo, we could likely see FaZe ban ENCE’s typical first map selection of Train, which I believe is what has happened in the prior two matches. I do think if FaZe gets the first ban option, and decides to go with Vertigo, then ENCE will likely ban Mirage, and we could still see an arrangement of Dust2 and Nuke. It is really hard to pinpoint the two map choices in this match, simply due to the contingency of who will get the first ban option, as this will dictate the map selection a tremendous amount. Ill be honest, I don’t feel comfortable listing the two I think will be the ones chosen, as I believe it could be any arrangement and combo of Nuke, Mirage, Train, and Dust2. With that being said, I am not going to list individual player performances for projected maps, as I don’t want to skew opinions by doing so. I do have to side with FaZe, as they have prevailed to win both previous matches, and three of their five player options have had pretty good success against ENCE. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: sergej – (allu is usually the go-to, but even he had pretty bad numbers against FaZe in the prior matches, so I’m going to go with a value captain here in sergej, of course this is IF you are playing ENCE)
Top Stacking Options: sergej, allu, Aerial
ANCHOR: Rain – Most are going to go for NiKo or coldzera, but rain has the value and the stats to back up his play against ENCE in the past, so I like the value he will bring as a cheap capt here)
Top Stacking Options: rain, NiKo, coldzera
100 Thieves (Ranked 19th in World) vs Liquid (Ranked 10th in World)
We have our only upper-bracket semi-final match as the last best of three match of the day for Tuesday with 100T and Liquid out of the North America region. Currently the books are listing Liquid as a -190 favorite to win this match on the money line. This is partly due by the fact that Liquid has absolutely owned 100 Thieves in the past, as the game win-loss record currently sits with Liquid at 18 wins to 100T’s four. Not to mention that these two teams have played three times so far in 2020, with Liquid clean 2-0 sweeping all three. Both teams are fresh off wins as 100T has actually swept their last two matches over Cloud9 and Chaos, while Liquid is off a 2-0 sweep over major contender in FURIA. Since we do have six maps in 2020, let’s see the top performers for that sample for these two teams. For 100T, Gratisfaction comes in with the best overall stat-line over last six maps played with a +14 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.15 rating. For Liquid, its no other than EliGe sitting with the best (and by quite the margin) overall stat-line over the last six maps played with a +28 K-D diff, 1.30 K-D, and 1.38 rating. Let’s look at some maps.
Looking at their prior three matches, one map that showed up every time was Vertigo, with Mirage showing up in two of the three as well. Only other map to have a place was Overpass, and it showed up in their most recent match with Vertigo. The typical first two bans for these two teams include Train for Liquid and Overpass for 100 Thieves. I am going to assume the only reason that Overpass showed up last time was due to 100 Thieves removing Mirage, as the prior two matches went as planned with Overpass and Train as the two bans. I would highly doubt we see 100 Thieves not ban Overpass in this one due to the fact that it has been the best map lately for Liquid, along with a four-map win streak there for Liquid to boot. I think its pretty safe to say we see Vertigo and Mirage as the first map choices. Let’s see who has performed well on these two map picks lately. For 100 Thieves on their projected map choice of Vertigo (eight map sample) jks is the top-dog here with a 1.29 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 89.1 ADR. All other four options also sit nicely on Vertigo as well starting with Gratisfaction at 1.17, jkaem at 1.16, AZR at 1.09, and last by not least, Liazz at 1.07. On Mirage (five map sample) only two fit the bill here with jkaem leading with a 1.07 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 79.8 ADR, followed by Gratisfaction at 1.02 rating. For Liquid on their projected map choice of Mirage (nine map sample) EliGe is doing the best lately here with a 1.19 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.38 IMP, and 85.3 ADR. Next is NAF at 1.15, and Stewie2K at 1.13 rounds out the list. For Vertigo (10 map sample) it is EliGe once again at 1.24 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.47 IMP, and 90.2 ADR. I generally like to side with teams that are usually dominant in the head-to-head prior matches, but I am just getting the feeling that Liquid is going to chalk-bust on this slate and I am liking some 100T here. It likely will fall a bit contrarian as well I think. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Gratisfaction – (Rates out well on both maps, has been the best against Liquid in their prior matches)
Top Stacking Options: Gratisfaction, jks, jkaem
ANCHOR: EliGe – (Likely will be uber-chalk, but has been stellar against 100T in the past and leads team on both projected map choices by a nice margin)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, Twistzz, Stewie2K
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Farlig, EliGe, kennyS/huNter-, Gratisfaction/jks (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: G2, GODSENT, FaZe, 100 Thieves (Ranked in order)
Top Values: rain, Gratisfaction, STYKO/ZeHN, AmaNEk. Aerial