Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 26
Sean Mitchell brings you all you need for the Friday CS:GO DFS CS_SUMMIT Elimination matches with his favorite plays, stacks, values, as well as projected map analysis!
Happy Friday CS:GO DFS slate, all! This four-match slate will feature the elimination deciding matches for each group. Two in the Europe region, as well as two in the North America region. With that said, let’s see what we have on tap!
X6tence (Ranked 41st in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 16th in World)
This is a newly created x6tence team that is comprised of mostly Copenhagen Flames players with the subtraction of Farlig of course, and the addition of HECTOz. They have not gotten off to such a good start since the acquisition and new branding of the team name as they have lost all five of their previous five matches. Three of those five were sweeps as well. ENCE comes in on a bit of skid themselves, losing their last three matches in a row as well. However, they were not swept in any and loss all three by a 1-2 result, and to good competition as well in Heroic, G2, and FaZe. The current betting lines over at GG.bet are listing ENCE as a -182 favorite here on the money line (as a shocker to no one). Just going to go ahead and say that this new team is going to and is still experiencing tremendous team chemistry issues, and it will need a little bit to get their team mechanics, structure, roles, etc., in place. It is also very noteworthy to mention that x6tence has not won over eight rounds on a single map in their last four maps played to boot. Obviously, we don’t have any head-to-head data to go off here, so we will go ahead and jump right into the projected map analysis for this match.
The first two banned maps for these two squads have been Vertigo for ENCE and Mirage for x6tence. We don’t really know much about x6tence, but it shows that they have chosen Nuke as their first pick lately roughly 25% of the time, while ENCE is choosing Train over 40% lately as their first choice. It is worth noting that x6tence does have a six-map win streak going on Overpass, so don’t be shocked if they decide to go that route as well. One would think that a team would stick to a map that they have had mild success on, especially in such a short amount of time together such as x6tence has, so let’s say we see Train and Overpass as the two map choices. Let’s see what who has played the best on these as of late for these two. For ENCE on their map choice of Train (12 map sample) it is allu at the top with a 1.34 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.37 IMP, and 85.9 ADR. All other options for ENCE fit the bill here as well starting with sergej at 1.12, suNny at 1.03, Jamppi at 1.01, and finally Aerial at the threshold of 1.0. For Overpass (TWO map sample, also wouldn’t be shocked to see ENCE ban this map for map strategy?) allu at the top again with 1.33 rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.40 IMP, and 88.5 ADR. Aerial comes in next at 1.24, and sergej rounds out the list at 1.08. For x6tence on their projected map choice of Overpass (six map sample) refrezh leads the team with a 1.25 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 81.6 ADR. He is followed by HECTOz at 1.17, and nodios at 1.15 to end the list. For Train (nine map sample) HECTOz tops the team here with a 1.16 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 77.2 ADR, and he is the only one that has over a 1.0 rating for it as well. Again, not a whole ton to go off with this new x6tence, but judging by their last couple maps, they are not ready yet. Think ENCE wins pretty easily here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: allu – (allu could potentially have a field-day here against this ill-experienced squad against top competition)
Top Stacking Options: allu, sergej, Aerial (think mostly everyone is in play here)
ANCHOR: HECTOz – (Seems to be the top-dog for this team, has some of the better numbers as well)
Top Stacking Options: HECTOz, refrezh, Nodios
FaZe (Ranked 3rd in World) vs Heretics (Ranked 22nd)
Both of these teams would like to just forget about their most recent matches as both were beaten by their opponents. FaZe just can’t see to find a winning formula against team BIG as they were swept once again and have now lost their last four matches against them. Heretics were dusted by OG on the third and final map after finding a win on their map choice of Nuke on map 2. Losing 16-3 on the final map surely wasn’t exactly what they had in mind, but maybe that was quite the wake-up call for Heretics. This match will definitely not be any easier for them here against FaZe. This best of three match will eliminate one of these teams from Group D play. The current betting odds over at GG.bet are really liking FaZe in this one as the are listed as a -325 favorite on the money line. It is worth noting that FaZe have now been swept in their last three matches in a row, so think about that as you look at them as such a large favorite in this one. Since we do not have any head-to-head data for these two, let’s see what the projected maps present for us.
The first two bans for these two includes Train for Heretics and Vertigo for FaZe. Heretics continue to choose Nuke as their first map and I do not see that changing here, while FaZe have quite the affinity for Mirage even though they were bested on it by BIG on Thursday as their map choice. I really don’t see any reason for these two teams to choose any other map selections, as both maps are small edges for their respective team choosing them. Nuke has been won by Heretics (including against OG on Thursday) roughly 71% of their last 17 tries, while Mirage has been won 67% of the time for FaZe in their last 15 attempts. So, with that said, let’s see the top performers here lately. I will go on record here saying that Nivera was the stand-out for Nuke yesterday for Heretics, so keep that in mind. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Mirage (15 map sample) NiKo leads the team to no surprise with a 1.20 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 87.9 ADR. Followed by Broky at 1.13, coldzera at 1.11 and lastly rain at 1.05. For Nuke (20 map sample) NiKo at the top of this one as well with a 1.19 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 89.7 ADR. Broky is the only to follow here with a 1.00 rating. For Heretics on their map choice of Nuke (17 map sample) Maka sits at the top with a 1.24 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.34 IMP, and 79.6 ADR. Nivera follows with a 1.18 rating, Lucky at 1.13, xms at 1.08, and even kioShiMa sits at 1.02 for Nuke. For Mirage (nine map sample) Nivera leads here with a 1.13 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.02 IMP, and 74.1 ADR. Two others meet the requirements for Mirage with Maka next at 1.06 and kioShiMa at 1.00. For what it is worth, I believe this match is much closer than the betting odds are listing it at. FaZe is definitely due for a major bounce-back, but they just have not looked good lately, not even a single player for them. Heretics literally got a wake-up call against OG, and I expect a much better showing from them as well. I feel this match could easily see three maps with both winning their map choices. I also think it will be fantasy gold. Really like this match up to stack both sides to be flat out honest. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: NiKo – (Obviously tops both projected map picks and feel he will get back on track in this one against Heretics)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, broky, rain/coldzera
ANCHOR: Nivera – (Really liked what I saw from him on Nuke yesterday, and he rates out well for both projected maps)
Top Stacking Options: Nivera, Maka, kioShiMa
MIBR (Ranked 14th in World) vs FURIA (Ranked 5th in World)
If it is one team that FURIA cannot beat, it is Evil Geniuses, if it is one team that FURIA can beat, it is MIBR. Happy HEN1 day all! FURIA’s loss on Thursday to EG allowed them to drop down into an elimination match today for Group A play. Per the current betting odds, FURIA is listed as a -167 favorite on the money line to win this best of three match against MIBR. This line is pretty indicative of the strangle-hold that FURIA has on this head-to-head series over MIBR in the past. To put this into perspective once again as I have in the past covering these two, FURIA has won four of their last five matches, however, that fifth match that MIBR won just so happened to be the last time these two played in the BLAST Premier series. It was also a 2-0 sweep, so we get a bit of a revenge angle here for FURIA to boot. MIBR comes into this one in decent form, winning three of their last four matches, while FURIA has dropped three of their last four matches. The last two losses for FURIA just so happened to be back-to-back 1-2 results to Evil Geniuses. Since we do have a plethora of head-to-head data, I typically like to list the best performers for the head-to-heads most recently, and I’ll announce it again, happy HEN1 day! For FURIA (12 map sample over L3 months) HEN1 is carrying an abusive +83 K-D Diff, 1.50 K-D, and a 1.32 rating. Per usual the other two usual suspects also have very nice stat-lines as well against MIBR over that span with yuurih carrying a +45 K-D diff, 1.24 K-D, and 1.19 rating, while also KSCERATO is carrying a +43 K-D diff, 1.24 K-D, and 1.16 rating. For MIBR (12 map sample also) kNgV- is the only player option with a positive stat-line over this span with a +12 K-D diff, 1.05 K-D, and 1.12 rating. Let’s look at some projected map choices.
The first ban for FURIA has been Dust2, while MIBR is banning Nuke roughly 90% of the time lately as well. The typical first map choices lately have been Train for MIBR and Vertigo for FURIA. Over their last four matches, Inferno, Train, and Vertigo have shown up the most, and I am highly confident we will see the same map pool here in this one. Inferno was the choice for MIBR in the last map and it paid off for them as they won it 14-16. Do they go back to it? I would maybe think so, considering FURIA is on a four-match skid there. So, I do believe we have a pretty high probability of seeing Inferno and Vertigo once again. Let’s see who is performing well on these lately. For MIBR on their projected map choice of Inferno (23 map sample) kNgV- tops the list here with a 1.16 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 78.7 ADR. Three others follow him here with fer at 1.11, FalleN at 1.09, and trk at 1.01. For Vertigo (eight map sample) interestingly enough, kNgV- also leads this one as of late with a 1.08 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 74.2 ADR. Next is FalleN at 1.06, and last but not least fer at 1.04 to round it out. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Vertigo (16 map sample) yuurih and the AWP leads here of course with a 1.24 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 86.3 ADR. Followed up by arT at 1.17, HEN1 at 1.15, and lastly KSCERATO at 1.09. For Inferno (19 map sample) KSCERATO slightly leads with a 1.21 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 80.8 ADR. Followed closely by HEN1 at 1.20, and yuurih at 1.11 rounds it out. I do believe FURIA gets back on track here, as they have now dropped three in a row and also have the revenge factor as well here. It is a team they know very well and have dominated in the past. Going back to FURIA here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: kNgV- (Going with a value capt here as he rates out well on both projected maps, not to mention he has the only positive stat-line against FURIA over last 12 maps)
Top Stacking Options: kNgV-, FalleN, fer/trk
ANCHOR: yuurih – (Love some HEN1 here as well and should have a bounce-back from him also, but yuurih is so consistent and he can carry in any match, plus he rates out well for Vertigo, a map they will choose)
Top Stacking Options: yuurih, HEN1, KSCERATO (arT has been a great value lately)
Chaos (Ranked 39th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 19th in World)
In the final match of the day we have the last elimination match of the day as well, but this one is for Group B. Gen.G was dusted on Thursday by Cloud9 on two maps, while Chaos was also a 0-2 loser to 100 Thieves on Wednesday. There is no betting line up at the time of writing this, as the C9/Gen.G match just concluded, so will have to rely on recent form, and map data to decipher this match. These two teams have faced off just once in 2020, it was a best of one in the BLAST Premier slate with Gen.G winning that one on Mirage with a 16-8 final. Koosta, s0m, and daps paved the way for Gen.G with all accruing over 20 kills apiece, while BnTeT was very close at 19. Leaf was the best scorer for Chaos with 15 frags on the map as well. Chaos actually comes into this one with nice form, having won four of their last five, with a nice win over MIBR as well in a 2-1 result. Gen.G has dropped four-straight, all be the 0-2 sweep, but maybe this could be the match up they needed to get back on track? They have beat them once already this year. Let’s look at some projected map picks to see if any edges are present.
The first two ban maps for these two includes Overpass for Gen.G and Vertigo for Chaos. The two typical first map choices lately have been Nuke for Chaos and Train for Gen.G. Ironically enough, both maps favor Chaos, as they have won three of their last four on Train and have won 71% of their last seven on Nuke. Since Train has not exactly been a great map for Gen.G lately, we could also see them elect to go with Mirage, a map they have won over 70% of their last seven tries on, while also being their second most-picked map lately. I do believe the Gen.G will need to try go play to win here, so likely could see Nuke and Mirage in my opinion. Let’s see who is performing well on these lately for these two teams. For Chaos on their typical map choice of Nuke (seven map sample) steel is the usual leader here lately, but since he hasn’t played in the last two matches, it looks like leaf is the guy here with a 1.15 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 75.2 ADR. Next, it’s Xeppaa at 1.14, vanity at 1.13, and finally jonji at 1.08. For Mirage (13 map sample) Xeppaa leads this one with a 1.20 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 83 ADR. Next, its vanity at 1.08, leaf at 1.07 and Jonji at 1.03. For Gen.G on their projected map choice of Mirage (seven map sample) s0m leads the team here with a 1.14 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 76.3 ADR. Two others meet the requirements here with koosta at 1.12 and BnTeT at 1.03. For Nuke (six map sample) only koosta fits the bill here with a 1.02 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 80 ADR. Again, I don’t feel really strongly that Gen.G is a good squad, they have been torched lately and don’t seem to be fully in it. Chaos recent form has been good, and I think they are the better team at the moment. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Xeppaa – (Has really nice upside, rates well on both maps and has been really good for them lately)
Top Stacking Options: Xeppaa, Jonji, leaf/vanity
ANCHOR: autimatic – (He has been their most consistent player lately, and he has nice upside and usually low-owned)
Top Stacking Options: autimatic, BnTeT, koosta (s0m seems to be nice value if it goes to Mirage)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Xeppaa, yuurih/HEN1, allu, NiKo, Nivera, kNgV-
Top Stacks: Chaos, FURIA, ENCE, FaZe, Heretics, MIBR
Top Values: sergeJ, BnTeT, rain, arT, leaf