Welcome back fam! I had a wonderful vacation, and they always say it is great to take a few days off to clear your mind, revitalize your thoughts, and fully rejuvenate your body, and that’s just what I did! With that being said, we have another 4-game slate for the CS Summit Event in both the Europe and North America regions. The slate begins at 12 PM ET, so plenty of time to get it in! Let’s get to it.
MATCH 1
FaZe (Ranked 3rd in World) vs BIG (Ranked 8th in World)
Both of these teams have been some of the bigger movers in terms of World rank lately, with BIG being one of the biggest. BIG has actually owned FaZe lately, sweeping them in their prior two matches and winning three of their last four played. The current betting odds on this match are listing BIG as a slight -120 favorite to win, however if you want to take FaZe you will also have to lay some juice at -106. These two faced off twice in the DreamHack Masters tournament and FaZe averaged only a 9.25 round-win total for all four maps that were played in those two matches, not to mention that is a bit skewed by a 19-round win OT performance on one of the four maps. Their round-wins went as followed, 19, 4, 5, and 9. That is not very good. FaZe have not really looked the same lately, losing to Vitality in their most recent match via the 0-2 sweep, and Complexity the match before that also by the 0-2 sweep, so their form has looked pretty bad lately. On the other hand, BIG has looked very good and continue to do so as they have won all five of their prior matches, including four of their last four by the 2-0 sweep. This does present quite a bit revenge narrative here for FaZe, and you likely will be able to catch them as a dog by the time this match starts tomorrow, but not sure this narrative will play much in this one. Since we do have a little head-to-head data, let’s see the top performers for each other these teams against each other. For BIG (4-map sample) led by four of the five options really: syrsoN sits with +21 K-D diff, 1.33 K-D, and 1.30 rating, XANTARES with +25 K-D diff, 1.45 K-D, and 1.26 rating, tabseN with +28 K-D diff, 1.42 K-D, and 1.40 rating, and last but not least, k1to with +18 K-D diff, 1.30 K-D, and 1.19 rating. There is only one player for FaZe sitting with a positive stat-line over the last four maps against BIG – broky with +7 K-D diff, 1.10 K-D, and 1.01 rating. Not great numbers for FaZe obviously against BIG lately. Let’s look at some maps.
One map that has shown up in all four of these two team’s prior four matches is Nuke. Inferno has sown up three times. Mirage has shown up twice. The two main bans for these two includes Vertigo for FaZe and Train for BIG. I could say with certainty that BIG will likely be going with Nuke again, as they have won this map three of the four matches prior, I would like to see FaZe try their luck again on Mirage, as it is their typical first map choice roughly 40% of the time lately, and in their most recent match this map went into double OT before BIG won it 22-19. I would like to think we see these two maps once again. Top performers lately for BIG on their projected map choice of Nuke (17 map sample) include syrsoN at 1.26 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 79.5 ADR. Followed by tabseN at 1.22, XANTARES at 1.14, and tiziaN at 1.08. On Mirage (18 map sample) no shocker to see syrsoN at the top of this one as well with a 1.32 rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.56 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. Followed up by XANTARES once again at 1.23, and tabseN at 1.10 to round out the list. For FaZe on their projected pick of Mirage (14 map sample) NiKo up top at 1.22 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.35 IMP, and 88.7 ADR. Second is broky at 1.14, then its coldzera at 1.12, and lastly rain at 1.07. For Nuke, (19 map sample) its NiKo at the top with a 1.18 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.34 IMP, and 89.4 ADR. Next it is coldzera at 1.01, rain at 1.00, and broky also at 1.00. Obviously, like most, I believe BIG is the clear side here as FaZe just has looked terrible lately, but maybe they have been looking forward to this rematch. Let’s talk play options.
FAZE:
ANCHOR: NiKo – (NiKo continues to be head above shoulders the best FaZe player option, and he usually still carries well even in losses)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, broky, coldzera (Rain is value if needed)
BIG:
ANCHOR: SyrsoN – (Tops both projected map totals by good margins and has really good numbers vs FaZe lately)
Top Stacking Options: syrsoN, tabseN, XANTARES (k1to is sneaky value)
MATCH 2
Heretics (Ranked 22nd in World) vs OG (Ranked 21st in World)
It has been a short-minute since we have had Heretics on a slate and I’ll be honest, I am pretty excited to have them back. In this best of three opener for Group D, both of these teams are pretty identical obviously in respect to their World ranks. At the current time, the betting odds are completely split right down the middle on this match with both squads garnering a -114-money line price. These two have faced off just one time for 2020, and that was a Heretics 2-0 sweep with scores of 16-9 for both maps played. Mirage and Dust2 were the maps played for clarity, and the top performers were ISSAA for OG and Maka for Heretics. Heretics dropped their more recent match to sAw with a 1-2 result, however, they had won their prior four matches in a row and three were via the 2-0 sweep. OG were winners in their most recent two matches but had dropped the three prior to that as well. Heretics will be looking to get back on track, while OG will look to continue their mini-win streak and get it to three. Since we don’t have much head-to-head data here, we will just jump right into some projected map choices.
The two first banned maps for these two includes Vertigo for OG, and Train for Heretics. The first map choices lately have been Mirage for OG and Nuke for Heretics. I really believe we see this combo, or the only other scenario could be OG going Dust2 as they did in this last clash. I do believe I am going to side with their typical map choices here however. Let’s see who has been performing well on these lately beginning with Heretics. On their projected map choice of Heretics (16 map sample) Maka leads the list at 1.24 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 80.8 ADR. Followed up by Nivera at 1.15, Lucky at 1.14, xms at 1.06, and KiOshiMa even makes it with a 1.03. For Mirage (eight map sample) Nivera sits at the top on Mirage with a 1.15 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.03 IMP, and 74.1 ADR. Next is Maka at 1.14, Lucky at 1.05, and lastly kioShiMa at 1.03. Now for OG on their projected map choice of Mirage (12 map sample) valde leads the way here with a 1.15 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 77.8 ADR. Mantuu comes in next at 1.07, with ISSAA at 1.03 to round it out. On Nuke (11 map sample) mantuu takes the top here with a 1.11 rating, 0.68 KPR, 0.91 IMP, and 70.1 ADR. Three others follow him here with valde at 1.10, NBK- at 1.06, and lastly aleksib at 1.05. I just don’t believe that OG has the overall make-up of star-power that Heretics has on their team with Maka, Nivera, and Lucky. Any three of these guys can carry on any match, and I do like the Heretics in this match. Let’s talk options.
HERETICS:
ANCHOR: Maka – (We have seen Maka go on some massive carry runs against some major teams in the top-tier and I feel we could see that again in this one)
Top Stacking Options: Maka, Nivera, Lucky (kio is nice value)
OG:
ANCHOR: mantuu – (Young gun that has shown he has the capability of carrying this team. Feel he is getting comfier in that role as well)
Top Stacking Options: Mantuu, ISSAA, Valde
MATCH 3
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 9th in World) vs FURIA (Ranked 5th in World)
I don’t know who is readier for this rematch – FUIRA or me. This one burnt me just last week as I was pretty heavy on FURIA and EG swooped in for the win in a 1-2 result leaving a pretty sour taste in my mouth. Currently FURIA is listed as the favorite at -125 to win this match. However, I must reiterate as I did in my last write-up for this match up that EG has owned FURIA in their head-to-head matches. As it sits now, EG has won the last four in a row, two by the 2-0 sweep, and leads the game totals at 17 wins to 4 wins for FURIA. EG comes into this one in great form, winning four of their last five best of three’s, with two of those coming via the 2-0 sweep. FURIA has not played since the last time these two played, so can most definitely believe that the sour taste is absolutely still there for them, and this screams revenge. Since we have some head-to-head data, let’s talk about some performers in this head-to-head series lately. For EG (last 8 maps played) Brehze tops the team with a +30 K-D diff, 1.21 K-D, and 1.11 rating. Followed by CeRq and Stanislaw to round out the positive stat-liners over that span. For FURIA, the usual three lead the list with KSCERATO at the top with a +20 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.09 rating. Followed by yuurih and finally HEN1. Let’s look at some projected maps.
The first banned maps for these two includes Dust2 for FURIA and Overpass for EG. FURIA has been choosing Vertigo roughly 33% of the time lately as their first map choice, with EG choosing Nuke almost 40%. The map that EG got FURIA on in their match was Inferno, a map that EG has won 5 in a row on lately. FURIA has won 13-straight on Mirage as well. Looking at the prior matches, Train was a popular one being played three out of the last four times, while both Vertigo and Inferno have shown up in both of the prior two matches. I do believe we could see these two maps being the likely ones chosen once again, so let’s talk top performers on these two lately. For EG on their projected choice of Inferno (14 map sample) Ethan leads the way on this one lately with a 1.20 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.34 IMP, and 81 ADR. Next is Brehze at 1.17, CeRq at 1.10, Tarik at 1.09, and even Stanislaw sits at 1.08 for Inferno. For Vertigo (seven map sample) Brehze leads on this one with a 1.10 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.03 IMP, and 76.8 ADR. That is all above the 1.0 rating threshold for Vertigo for EG lately. For FURIA on their projected map choice of Vertigo (15 map sample) yuurih tops the charts here with a 1.26 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 87.6 ADR. Followed by three others beginning with HEN1 at 1.17, arT at 1.16, and KSCERATO at 1.11. On Inferno (18 map sample) KSCERATO leads the team here with a 1.22 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 80.8 ADR. Once again, three others follow here as well with HEN1 at 1.21, yuurih at 1.10, and arT sits at the threshold of 1.00. I haven’t seen pricing yet of course at the time of writing this playbook, but I am going to assume that FURIA could likely be priced down since they lost this same match up just days ago, and if so, I will likely be a glutten for punishment, but I will be going right back to the well on them here. Let’s talk options.
EG:
ANCHOR: Brehze – (Feel that Brehze has come alive lately and generally carries a very safe floor for EG)
Top Stacking Options: Brehze, CeRq, Ethan
FURIA:
ANCHOR: yuurih – (Feel he could carry easily on Vertigo, and his numbers against EG are nice as well)
Top Stacking Options: yuurih, KSCERATO, HEN1 (arT is nice value and a gpp play)
MATCH 4
Gen.G (Ranked 19th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 20th in World)
For the final best of three match of the day on this slate we get a match for the openers of Group B of the North America region. The current betting odds are listing Cloud9 as the largest favorite on the slate at -160 to win it. This line could possibly be fueled by the fact that C9 has won the last three of four matches these two have played. Two of those wins were via the 2-0 sweep, including one being the most recent match. Cloud9 comes into this one in decent form winning three of their last five, all three wins were the 2-0 sweep as well. Gen.G comes in pretty in much weaker form losing all three of their prior three matches. Might have a smidge of the rust factor in this one as well for Gen.G, as they haven’t played a major event match since the 12th of June. Since we have a decent size of head-to-head data, let’s see the top performers for this match up in the recent past. For Cloud9 (10 map sample) floppy tops the charts with a +26 K-D diff, 1.15 K-D, and 1.18 rating. An interesting second runner here for C9 is Sonic, who sits with his best numbers over L3 months against any team with a +26 K-D diff, 1.15 K-D, and 1.11 rating. Both oSee and motm both also have positive stat-lines against Gen.G in this map sample. For Gen.G, one player has had decent success and that is autimatic with a +26 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.12 rating. Let’s talk maps.
One map that has turned up in all three of their prior matches is Train, and that is the typical first choice of Gen.G. Inferno is the only other duplicate map showing up in two of their last three played. Since Overpass, which is the typical first choice for C9 is also the first ban of Gen.G, I believe we once again see C9 go with Inferno here, as it is their second most picked map after Overpass. Let’s see who has played the best lately on these two maps. For Gen. G on their projected map choice of Train (12 map sample) autimatic tips the scales here with a 1.13 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 76.9 ADR. Only one other sits above the threshold here and that is BnTeT at 1.09. For Inferno (11 map sample) koosta tops the list here with a 1.14 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 80.3 ADR. Three others meet the requirements here in BnTeT at 1.05, s0m at 1.02, and autimatic at the threshold of 1.00. For Cloud9 on their projected map choice of Inferno (12 map sample) floppy leads the way here with a 1.26 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 85.2 ADR. Followed by oSee at 1.12, motm at 1.07, and Sonic at 1.03. For Train (15 map sample) the AWP oSee tops the list here with a 1.19 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 76.9 ADR. Floppy next at 1.14, and Sonic at 1.11 rounds out the list. I do believe I have to side with C9 here, as I am just not convinced that Gen.G is very good…at all. Let’s talk options.
GEN.G:
ANCHOR: Autimatic – (Nice numbers again C9, and also on projected map picks, seems he has the best value of the team)
Top Stacking Options: autimatic, BnTeT, Koosta
CLOUD9:
Anchor: oSee – ( floppy is usually the capt pick of the recs and I don’t mind floppy here, but I think I’ll take a shot on oSee here and hope he flies a bit under-owned compared to floppy)
Top Stacking Options: oSee, floppy, Sonic (motm is the value play)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: syrsoN, oSee, yuurih, NiKo, Maka
Top Stacks: BIG, Heretics, FURIA, Cloud9
Top Values: XANTARES, Sonic, Ethan, k1to, kioShiMa