It is Wednesday and we are back for another CS:GO DFS slate from the BLAST Premier tournament. Today’s matches will feature two from the lower bracket round 1, and one out of the upper-bracket semis. Let’s get it hoppin’!
Match 1
G2 (Ranked 1st in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 14th in World)
Both of these teams will meet in the first lower-bracket round one best of three match. ENCE was dealt a 1-2 result in their most recent match to FaZe where they needed a huge OT come-back on the second map to push it to the third map where they got trounced in the loss. They have been winners of their prior three of four however. G2 was also dealt a loss and have now lost two of their last two to Vitality and BIG. There is not a line up at the books yet for this match at the time of writing, so we will have to analyze past head-to-head data and some projected map data to determine what we like in this one. These two squads have yet to face off in 2020, however they played four matches in 2019, with G2 winning three of the four. Also, worth mentioning that three of four did go the full three-map distance as well. G2 have actually won the last three matches in a row vs ENCE, and most of these maps were pretty close though as every match had at least one OT map, while all the losing maps saw at least 11 or more round wins to boot. Relatively close matches. Since we do have some head-to-head data, let’s see who has performed the best individually against each other. For a six-map sample, G2’s best individual performances came from nexa with a +16 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.10 rating. Both huNter- and KennyS also had positive K-Ds and ratings as well. For an eight-map sample for ENCE as well, allu of course leads the way with a +17 K-D diff, 1.10 K-D, and 1.14 rating. Only suNny has the only other positive numbers against G2 in the past eight maps. Now, let’s see if we can point out some projected map choices.
The first two ban maps for these two includes Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for ENCE. The first maps chosen lately have been Dust2 for G2 and Train for ENCE. Dust2 has been featured in every match mentioned above (last four), while Nuke has been played three of the four times as well. Train has shown up twice as well to round out the most played maps of those four prior matches. I really think it depends on if G2 bans Train. I don’t think ENCE will mind playing on Dust2, as it really hasn’t been a great map for G2 as they have only won it roughly 33% of their last 17 attempts there, while ENCE has won almost 55% of their last 13. In the event that Train is banned by G2, Mirage has been the 2nd most picked map lately by ENCE, so we could likely see this one in that scenario. Also, worth noting that Nuke has been ENCE’s pick in two of their last three. I really think it comes down to what map ENCE feels they can win on. Train is definitely their best map lately, with Mirage closely behind. Train is the definite edge map for ENCE, so it would be smart of them to play it if given the opportunity. I really could see the maps end up in a couple different scenarios, so I really don’t feel comfortable that any one scenario is highly more likely than the others to be honest. With that said, I’ll skip the individual performers for certain maps, as I don’t want to skew the numbers for anyone on guesses. Let’s talk options.
G2:
ANCHOR: nexa – (nexa is usually the lower-owned option when it comes to huNter- and KennyS, so thinking could get the value on him, especially with him having the best head-to-head numbers against ENCE for G2)
Top Stacking Options: nexa, huNter-, KennyS (AmaNEk also had a small positive# vs ENCE, so he could be value)
ENCE:
ANCHOR: allu – (No-brainer, has really good numbers vs G2 in the past and is typically their stud player)
Top Stacking Options: allu, sunNy, Jamppi/Sergej
Match 2
NiP (Ranked 11th in World) vs OG (Ranked
This match will be the second one of the lower-bracket round one featuring the two losers from Tuesday’s matches in NiP and OG. NiP were slashed by NaVi in two maps, while OG were able to steal Complexity’s Mirage map choice, but ultimately their inefficiencies and inexperience’s against upper-tier competition showed quite a bit on the third and final map of Nuke, leading to the 2-1 win for Complexity. At the time of writing this playbook, there is not a current line listed for this match, so we do not have that to analyze, but I am going to say that NiP will be a favorite here. We also do not have any head-to-head data to go off of since these two squads have not faced each other. With that being said, let’s take a look at some projected map picks for this match for any added information. It is important to note that OG have now lost their last four matches in a row to boot. Let’s talk maps.
The first two ban maps for these two squads includes Dust2 for NiP, and Vertigo for OG. The first pick lately for OG has been Mirage, while Overpass has been the first choice lately for NiP. I do believe these will likely be the maps chosen, as Mirage has been a hot map pick for NiP lately as well, however they lost on it against NaVi, but I don’t believe they will mind going here. Overpass is a small edge here for NiP, as they have won close to 70% of their last 15 attempts there, while OG has only played Overpass just five times lately and only have saw success on roughly 44% of those tries. We did see NiP win Mirage against Vitality, so it isn’t a dead give-away for OG on Mirage, and I still believe they will need to win Mirage to have a shot here. Let’s see who is performing well on these two maps for these teams. For NiP on their projected map choice of Overpass (15 map sample) the AWPer in twist is the lead here and he plays well with a 1.28 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 80.0 ADR. Followed by REZ at 1.26, nawwk at 1.17, and Plopski at 1.13 to round out the list. On Mirage (nine map sample) its Plopski at the lead with a 1.17 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 81.6 ADR. Followed by Hampus at 1.09, nawwk at 1.04, and lastly twist at 1.0. For OG on their projected map choice of Mirage (10 map sample) valde leads the list with a 1.21 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.19 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Next is mantuu at 1.12, ISSAA at 1.06, and NBK- at 1.01. For Overpass (five map sample) the AWP for OG also leads this map for them in NBK- at 1.07 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.29 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. Two others fit the list with ISSAA at 1.06 and mantuu at 1.03. I do believe the edge here is on NiP, especially after coming off a loss. I just feel they are the better overall team here, and OG still has yet to prove they can compete in the upper-tier competition levels. Siding with NiP here. Let’s talk player options.
NIP:
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Continues to impress even in losses, and it was NaVi. Feel he is still their highest upside guy, as he gets lots of multi-kill rounds with more chances for bonuses)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, twist, hampus
OG:
ANCHOR: mantuu – (Feel like he could result to the AWP on Overpass, and he could have decent value here, not to mention his numbers are top 1-2 on both projected maps, and he showed he was a good young player against COMP)
Top Stacking Options: mantuu, valde, NBK-
Match 3
Liquid (Ranked 7th in World) vs Evil Geniuses (Ranked 12th)
This best of three match is out of the upper bracket and it is the semi-finals as well. The current betting odds are listing Liquid as -175 favorites on the money line to win this match. These two squads are very familiar with each other and have played a number of matches in the recent past. In the most recent four matches head-to-head, Liquid has won all four, with the most recent two matches being via the 2-0 sweep. Liquid had come into DreamHack Masters looking exponentially revamped and rejuvenated taking down Gen.G, Cloud9, and 100 Thieves all by the 2-0 sweep before getting blitzed by FURIA in the grand Finale for the North American region in a 0-3 sweep. They never got going against FUR, and this is a team you cannot afford to make mistakes against or allow the rounds to pile up. EG hasn’t played since the 7th of June, when they won their 3rd place decider match against Gen.G for the DreamHack Masters event. We could look at a small “rust” factor here for EG with them having about 8 days off since their last match, and we could also look at a bounce-back narrative here for Liquid as well after being embarrassed in the Grand Finale. Either way, Liquid has history on their side here against EG, and if they get back to how they were playing in the earlier matches of DH Masters, they will likely have no problems winning this match. Since we have lots of head-to-head data, let’s see who has performed well individually against each other for this clash. For Liquid (seven map sample) EliGe tops the list her with a +55 K-D diff, 1.43 K-D, and 1.32 rating. NAF also has really good numbers with a +35 K-D diff, 1.28 K-D, and 1.25 rating. Twistzz also comes in with a small positive stat-line against EG as well. For EG over the same map sample, Brehze at the top with a +15 K-D diff, 1.10 K-D, and 1.10 rating. Only CeRq being the only other option for EG with positive stat-line against Liquid over that span. Let’s look at some projected map choices.
The first two ban maps for these two teams includes Train for Liquid and Overpass for EG. The first map choices lately have been Mirage for Liquid, and Nuke for EG. I do believe we could see EG play map strategy and ban Mirage, as it is a map they have banned the third most times lately, as it is Liquid’s typical first choice. Looking at their prior four head-to-head matches, Dust2 was a map that showed up three times, while Nuke also showed up three times, and Inferno showed up twice. The two ban maps listed above have been the bans for the last three matches in a row, so we can confidently say the bans will stay true. Liquid has chosen Dust2 as their first map pick in their last two matches, while EG has picked Nuke and Vertigo. I believe we can likely see Dust2 and Nuke. Let’s see who has performed well on these two maps lately. For Liquid on their projected map choice of Dust2 (eight map sample) EliGe is elite here with a 1.37 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.58 IMP, and 96.9 ADR. Followed up by NAF with 1.27, both stewie2k and Twistzz with 1.13, and even nitr0 sits with a 1.08. For Nuke (seven map sample) NAF leads the list with a 1.24 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.37 IMP, and 84.5 ADR. Two others fit the bill here with EliGe at 1.12 and Twistzz at 1.07. For EG on their projected map pick of Nuke (11 map sample) its CeRq and his AWP on Nuke with a 1.18 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 78.7 ADR. Two others make the list with Brehze at 1.12 and Ethan at 1.05. For Dust2 (11 map sample) CeRq also leads the team here with a 1.09 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 70.7 ADR. Brehze follows next with 1.04 and Tarik rounds out the list with 1.0. Going to have to side with the chalk here in Liquid. History clearly on their side, and I am going to expect a bounce-back after the loss to FUR against a familiar foe here in EG. Let’s talk options.
LIQUID:
ANCHOR: EliGE – (I mean ELITE numbers against EG in the past, and has really turned it on lately, no-brainer)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, stewie2k
EVIL GENIUSES:
ANCHOR: CeRq – (If one of the maps ends up being Nuke, I want CeRq, he has positive numbers against TL, and he has been pretty damn good lately)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: EliGe, Plopski, nexa/huNter-, allu, CeRq (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Liquid, NiP, G2, ENCE, OG, EG (ranked in order)
Top Values: Stewie2K, suNny, twist, hampus