Welcome back to another CS:GO DFS playbook in which today we are gifted a three-match BLAST Premier slate starting at 10:30 AM ET! Hopefully you all had a wonderful weekend and a great start to your week, with some money to be had for this DFS slate! Without further comment, let us begin!
Match 1
NaVi (Ranked 1st in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
Just a short two or so weeks ago we saw this same NaVi team route NiP in the DreamHack Masters Spring event in a 2-0 sweep to knock NiP out of the tournament. So, one could say there is a bit of a revenge factor narrative you could potentially play here for NiP. The current betting odds do not have this match listed at the time of writing, so that will be something to monitor going into tomorrow. These two squads have played four total maps so far in 2020, with NaVi winning all four and sweeping their prior head-to-head matches. Not only has NaVi won those last two matches, they also won a total of seven maps out of their last seven played against NiP. Looks pretty clear-cut, one might say? The maps weren’t exactly of the close variety either, as NiP averaged 9.42 rounds won in those seven map losses, reaching double-digit round wins in just four of the seven as well. Since we do have quite a bit of head-to-head data, I will go ahead and list the best individual performances for these two against each other pertaining to that data. For NaVi over last 12-month span (10 total maps) vs NiP, no shocker that S1mple has the highest success rate with a +93 K-D diff, 1.64 K-D, and a 1.41 rating. Most would likely point directly at Electronic as the next best on NaVi for this span against NiP, however it is not. It is Flamie with the next best numbers sitting with a +31 K-D diff, 1.19 K-D, and 1.16 rating. For NiP over last 10 map sample vs NaVi, it is only nawwk sitting with a positive stat-line with a +2 K-D diff, 1.03 K-D, and 1.03 rating. Once again, going to be hard to find any edges here for NiP, as it seems they have not created any for themselves against this NaVi team, but let’s take a look at some projected maps.
The first two ban maps for these two include Dust2 for NiP and Vertigo for NaVi. Dust2 is a usual first choice for NaVi, so I could likely see them going with Nuke, and I believe that NiP will likely go with their usual choice of Overpass. I could see NiP throwing them a curve as they did with Vitality and going with Mirage, but at the same time, we saw NaVi destroy a good MAD Lions team on Mirage while it was MAD’s map choice recently as well, so it would be a bit more intelligent for NiP to try to stick to their strength here of Overpass. Train is another interesting map that could be used as a strategy pick for NiP as well, as it is a map that NaVi have lost their last four straight opportunities on. After looking it over a bit more, I do think we could see a Train/Nuke match here as their first two picks. Let’s see who is playing the best here lately, as it may open up some potential value. For NaVi on their projected map choice of Nuke (12 map sample) S1mple is the man at the top of course with a 1.35 rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.37 IMP, and 86.2 ADR. Followed by just electronic sporting a rating above a 1.0 with a 1.07 for this map. For Train (seven map sample) electronic is the head here with a 1.18 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 85 ADR. For NiP on their projected map choice of Train (12 map sample) Plopski tops the list with a 1.13 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Followed by three others with a 1.0 rating or above with hampus and nawwk both next at 1.09, and REZ at 1.08. For Nuke (11 map sample) only two meet the requirements here with nawwk leading the list at 1.12 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 78.6 ADR. Followed only by Plopski at 1.03 to round out the list. I feel the only way that NiP gets a shot here is they strategy pick Train and hope that NaVi continues to run bad here and steal this one pushing this to a third map that could likely give them a shot at a 2-1 win. Other than that, NaVi should roll here in any other instance as they have in the past. Let’s talk options.
NAVI:
ANCHOR: S1mple – (It’s literally that simple)
Top Stacking Options: S1mple, electronic, flamie
NiP:
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Feel he will have to lead his team here, and he has been one of the more consistent players lately)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, nawwk, Hampus/REZ
Match 2
Complexity (Ranked 16th in World) vs OG (Ranked 20th in World)
Have yet to see OG lately on the major events scene, but they will make their way back into one today with a match in the upper-bracket quarter final against Complexity. Complexity comes in as a -170 favorite on the money line to win this best of three match. These two teams have zero head-to-head data to analyze, so we must look at recent form and finally the map data to see who presents the best case to win this match. OG have been losers in their last three matches consecutively, losing to HAVU and c0ntact both by the 0-2 sweep, and also a 1-2 result to forZe. Complexity also just dropped an 0-2 loss to forZe in their most recent match but had won three of their prior matches before that loss. Complexity is one of the up-and-coming teams here lately and had some pretty good showing in their recent major events as well beating some pretty good teams. This match should be an interesting one. Let’s see what maps we can project, and if they provide any edges for these two teams.
The first two banned maps for these two teams include Overpass for Complexity and Vertigo for OG. Looks like both have quite the liking of Mirage, as it has been the majority first map choice of both lately. Complexity has played Mirage a total of 28, TWENTY-EIGHT times over their last few months, which is absolutely nuts. What is even crazier is that they have sustained a 65% success rate there as well over that span. Impressive to say the least. Looks like OG is also liking both Inferno and Dust2 as other first map choices. I believe Inferno will be the likely choice of the two for OG as well, as they have played it a few more times lately than they have on Dust2, not to fail to mention the 7-map winning streak COMP has on Dust2 as well. So, with that said I feel we will see both Mirage and Inferno for this one. Let’s see who is performing well on these two maps. For Complexity on their projected map choice of Mirage (28 map sample) blameF sits at the lead with a 1.26 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 85.6 ADR. Next is k0nfig at 1.19, poizon at 1.16, and oBo at 1.14. For Inferno (nine map sample) it is blameF once again at the top with a 1.18 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 82.6 ADR. K0nfig follows again in second best with a 1.15, oBo with a 1.11 and RUSH sitting right at the threshold of 1.0. For OG on their projected map choice of Inferno (12 map sample) mantuu leads the team with a 1.14 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 71.7 ADR. Three others fit the bill here with valde sitting at 1.08, ISSAA at 1.04, and NBK- at 1.00. For Mirage (nine map sample) valde leads the team here with a hefty 1.24 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.19 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. Once again, three others fit the bill here with mantuu at 1.09, ISSAA at 1.06, and NBK- at 1.01. I really think this match could end up being a 3-map banger to be flat out honest. On paper, these two teams are pretty damn close when looking at projected map data, and the only out-lying factor is the fact that OG has been on a skid lately in recent form. Other than that, this one is split in my opinion, and I feel you can likely find some nice leverage and value in OG. Let’s talk some options.
COMPLEXITY:
ANCHOR: blameF – (Rates out very well on both projected map picks and has just really been playing at a high level lately)
Top Stacking Options: blameF, k0nfig, oBo
OG:
ANCHOR: valde – (Tops Mirage with the best rating for his squad, and 2nd best of the two. Top ratings for both maps projected as well and I think most will look at mantuu here, which I feel isn’t a bad choice at all, but Valde will gain some leverage in my opinion)
Top Stacking Options: valde, mantuu, ISSAA
Match 3
FURIA (Ranked 8th in World) vs MIBR (Ranked 14th in World)
Have another small narrative play here on FURIA, however can it really be a narrative when the last time these two played, which was in this BLAST Premier event’s opening rounds, was a best of one? Well, MIBR won that best of one with a 16-13 final score on Inferno. That was only one of three map wins for MIBR in the last 15 maps these two have faced off in however. So, to put that further into perspective, FURIA has won the last four of five matches, three of the four and the three most prior after the loss in the best of one were in the 2-0 sweep result as well. FURIA is fresh off grand final win in the DreamHack Masters North America region, where they toasted Team Liquid 3-0 in a best of five series. I suppose you could say that FUR is in very good recent form, winning their last five of five matches, three by the sweep. MIBR dropped their most recent match against Cloud9 but had won their prior two matches before that with wins over Evil Geniuses and Cloud9. Per the betting odds currently, FURIA comes in as a -215 favorite to win this match and are the largest favorite on the slate. Since we have quite a bit of head-to-head data, let’s see who has performed the best against each other individually in these prior matches. Over a 10-map span over the last three months, HEN1 has absolutely torched MIBR with a +76 K-D diff, 1.57 K-D, and 1.35 Rating (flame emojis infinitely). Both KSCERATO (+46 K-D diff, 1.31 K-D, 1.20 rating) and yuurih (+40 K-D diff, 1.25 K-D, 1.21 rating) have also aided tremendously in the dominance over MIBR in their prior matches. For MIBR, it is all FalleN and kNgV- with positive numbers against FUR, and they are very, very minimal. Let’s look at some projected maps.
The two first bans for these squads include Dust2 for FURIA and Nuke for MIBR. The first map picks typically are Train for MIBR and Vertigo for FURIA. If for some reason MIBR decides to use some strategy and bans Vertigo, we could see FURIA go with Mirage, a map they have won 12-straight on. Looking over their prior matches, it seems that MIBR has not minded giving Vertigo to FUR in their last three of four best of three matches. Looks like MIBR has also tested Inferno and Mirage other than Train as their other map choices in those prior head-to-heads also. It does seem that Train was near one of the better maps for MIBR, and they did put up 12 round-wins against FUR in their last match featuring Train. To be honest, I think it really just comes to what MIBR decides they want to do as far as their map choice, as it hasn’t exactly been consistent in their past matches. Not going to put the individual numbers for the maps here, as it seems it could be a mixture of maps for MIBR and also in the event they throw curveballs here. Let’s just note that FUR has pretty much an edge on all projected maps here, not to mention history well on their side also. Let’s look at some player options.
FURIA:
ANCHOR: HEN1 – (Seems to have MIBR’s number as stated above in the previous map history per individual numbers against)
Top Stacking Options: HEN1, KSCERATO, yuurih
MIBR:
ANCHOR: FalleN – (Has best numbers vs FUR other than kNgV as mentioned above)
Top Stacking Options: FalleN, kNgV-, flip a coin between fer/trk
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: HEN1, S1mple, blameF, KSCERATO/yuurih, Valde (Ranked in Order)
Top Stacks: FUR, NaVi, Complexity, OG (Ranked in Order)
Top Values: REZ, ISSAA, flamie, hampus