Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 12
Sean Mitchell breaks down the three-match slate for Friday's DreamHack Masters slate with his favorite plays, stacks, and values!
The DreamHack Masters event continues to roll on and we have another three-match slate on tap today for DFS! Today we get the luxury of the lower bracket final of the Europe region, along with the beginning of the lower-bracket rounds beginning for North America region as well! Let’s go ahead and get started.
NaVi (Ranked 1st in World) vs Faze (Ranked 7th in World)
We get our lower-bracket final match here in the Europe region with NaVi and FaZe. NaVi took care of business fairly easy on Thursday against the MAD Lions in a 2-0 sweep where they really looked pretty dominant and just kept their foot on the gas the whole time. FaZe needed all three maps in their victory over NiP, as they destroyed NiP on NiP’s map choice of Train, and then lost their own map pick on Mirage in the second map by close to the same result. They took care of business on Inferno in the third and final map to secure the advancement to the lower-bracket final for their region. This should be a very good match-up, as both of these teams are typically very strong, and I believe very strongly that the map decisions will play a huge part in this one. As the time of me writing this playbook, we do not currently have any betting odds available for this match, but I am going to say that NaVi will be a slight favorite in this one after their performance against MAD Lions. The prior head-to-head history does favor NaVi also here as these two squads have faced off four times already in 2020, with NaVi winning every single match. However, all four matches did go the full three-map distance, so this definitely should be a good match. Since we have quite a bit of head-to-head data, let’s see who is performing well individually. For NaVi in a six-map sample – no shock that S1mple is crushing in this regard with a +47 K-D diff, 1.49 K-D, and 1.31 rating, and that is all for NaVi with a positive K-D in that span. For FaZe in the same map sample, it is no other than NiKo leading with a +26 K-D diff, 1.24 K-D, and a 1.35 rating. Broky also fared well against NaVi with a +13 K-D diff, 1.15 K-D, and 1.09 rating. Let’s look at some projected map choices.
The first two ban map choices for these two squads lately has been Vertigo for both. The other two most banned map choices for these have been Overpass for FaZe and Mirage for Navi. A couple of maps we have seen in their prior head-to-head matches that have shown up a few times include Nuke, Dust2, and Inferno. They have literally not chosen the same combo of maps for any two of their prior matches, so I think the map choices for these two teams in this match will be pretty difficult to nail down. Nuke is the only map that has shown up every match so far however. The last two matches, we have seen FaZe go with Mirage, and NaVi go with either Train or Vertigo. I really cannot feel very confident about narrowing down the map choices for this match, as it seems they literally change their map pools up for every instance they have played. Going to go straight to the options here. I will say that I feel that this match should easily go three maps, as it has in all four of their prior matches.
ANCHOR: S1mple – (chalk, chalk, chalk, but he’s literally the best play on the slate for his massive upside, not to forget his massive numbers against FaZe in the past)
Top Stacking Options: S1mple, Electronic, Perfecto
ANCHOR: NiKo – (Best numbers as well by quite a good margin vs NaVi, can consider Broky here as well)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, Broky, Coldzera
Team Liquid (Ranked 6th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 12th in World)
The second match of the DreamHack slate features two teams in the lower bracket rounds for North America. Liquid finished as the number two seed behind FURIA in Group A, while Gen.G finished in the third seed for Group B. The current betting odds are favoring Liquid here quite heavily as they are a -250 favorite on the money line. The under 2.5 maps is also juiced up to -140 as well. I do understand the oddsmakers here as Liquid has dominated this head-to-head history winning every map they have played (four maps, three matches). They have yet to meet in 2020 but played three times in 2019. As mentioned, Liquid has won all four maps, and it really wasn’t all that close as Gen.G failed to yield over 8-round wins in three of the four, and in their most recent match, a best of one, Liquid railed them 16-4 on Inferno. One key factor to point out here though, is that these matches were not when Gen.G was Gen.G, they were Cloud9 then and have totally re-made their roster, so not sure we can take this prior head-to-head history with much weight. It is important to note that Liquid has have almost two weeks off for a break since playing 100T on the 30th of May. Gen.G played on the 7th of this month, so they have played a few matches more than Liquid as of late, however, they also dropped their last two matches on that account. Could the rust factor play here for Liquid? Some teams it is absolutely noticeable if they stayed practicing and studied up while on a break, while others you can tell the time off was not their friend. Will be interesting to see in this one. For the simple reason that Gen.G is a newer roster since the last time these two played, I will not analyze any individual performances from their prior matches. Let’s take a look at some potential projected map picks.
The first two ban map choices for these two include Train for Liquid and Overpass for Gen.G. Considering that Train is the typical first map choice of Gen.G, I believe we will see their next most picked map of Inferno, which is actually the third most chosen, but due to the fact that Mirage is Liquid’s typical first pick, I believe we see these two maps. Let’s see who has played well on these two lately. For Liquid on their projected map choice of Mirage (seven map sample) EliGe leads the list to no shock at a 1.22 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.41 IMP, and 87.1 ADR. Next is Stewie2K at 1.16, NAF at 1.13, and Twistzz rounds it out at 1.01. For Inferno (eight map sample) Twistzz leads the team with a 1.26 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 79.1 ADR. Followed by NAF at 1.22, EliGe at 1.11 and that concludes the list for this one. For Gen.G on their projected map choice of Inferno (13 map sample) Koosta leads the way with 1.11 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 80.3 ADR. Two others sit in this list for Gen.G with BnTeT sitting at 1.02 and autimatic at 1.01. For Mirage (eight map sample) Koosta is there at the top once again with a 1.19 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 85.4 ADR. Three fit this bill for them on Mirage with s0m at 1.14, BnTeT at 1.07 and autimatic at 1.02. To be honest, I feel this match could turn up being relatively close. I do somewhat favor Liquid in this one, as I feel they have a more complete team and EliGe is pretty elite, and their 2-3 options are pretty stout in NAF and Stewie2K/Twistzz. Going to be look at Liquid, which will likely turn a bit chalky, but think its good chalk in this one. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: EliGe – (It is a bit tougher picking a capt for Liquid, as they have 2-3 guys who could lead the server on any map, but EliGe def has the upside, and will be chalky, so just know that. Can also consider NAF or Twistzz)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, Twistzz
ANCHOR: Koosta – (sits atop the projected map choices and is typically their best player)
Top Stacking Options: koosta, BnTeT, autimatic
MIBR (Ranked 14th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 19th in World)
We get out second match out of the lower-bracket beginning rounds of the North America region here. MIBR finished in the third seed for Group A play, while Cloud9 finished as the second seed out of Group B. According to the current betting odds, MIBR comes in as a -170 favorite on the money line, and both the Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 maps both sit at -115 odds. These two teams are pretty familiar foes, as they have played two matches already in 2020, with both going the full three-map distance. They both split those matches as well with one win a piece, with MIBR prevailing the winner in their most recent match for the BLAST Premier just last month. Since we do have some head-to-head data here, want to throw out the top performers against each other in those prior matches. No shocker that FalleN sits with the best individual number’s vs C9 with a +22 K-D Diff, 1.24 K-D, and 1.20 rating over six maps played. Two others sit with positive K-D’s as well in fer and Taco for MIBR. For Cloud9, oSee leads his team with the best individual stats vs MIBR with a +25 K-D diff, 1.28 K-D, and 1.15 rating. Floppy is the only other option that has a positive K-D against MIBR to boot. Let’s look at some projected map choices for these two teams.
The two first ban maps for these two squads includes Mirage for Cloud9 and Nuke for MIBR. The typical first map choices have been Train for MIBR and Overpass for Cloud9. I could see MIBR utilize a more strategic map choice than Train here, as Train has not really been that great to them lately only winning 33% of their last 11 attempts there. I think that strategic map choice would be to go with Dust2. A map they have a 5-map winning streak on and have won roughly 75% of their last 15 attempts on, while Cloud9 has roughly won half of their last 13 tries on. This would make the most sense to me, so I believe we do see Dust2 and Overpass as the map choices. Let’s see who is performing well on these. For MIBR on their projected map choice of Dust2 (15 map sample) no other than FalleN at the top with a 1.28 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 81.1 ADR. Followed by fer at1.23, kNgv- at 1.08, and trk at 1.03. For Overpass (seven map sample) fer tops the list with a 1.22 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 87.2 ADR. For Cloud9 on their projected map choice of Overpass (eight map sample) floppy sits with a hefty 1.34 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 91 ADR. Followed by motm at 1.29, oSee at 1.15, and JT at 1.07. For Dust2 (13 map sample) oSee tops the list with a 1.12 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.09 IMP, and 77.5 ADR. Two others follow in floppy at 1.09, and Sonic at 1.04. After analyzing the projected map data, I believe I like the favorite in this one as well in MIBR. Just feel they have more star-power in FalleN and fer. If C9 wants any shot at winning this, floppy will need big help from both oSee and either motm or Sonic, and I just don’t really see it. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: fer – (Going a little away from the obvious pick of FalleN, and won’t disagree with anyone on FalleN at capt, but I think fer’s numbers are really good for both projected maps, and even more so for the Overpass projected pick for C9)
Top Stacking Options: fer, FalleN, TACO
ANCHOR: floppy – (Could easily make a case for oSee here as well, but floppy is typically their best player and he usually has the most upside)
Top Stacking Options: floppy, oSee, motm
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: S1mple, NiKo, fer/FalleN, EliGe, floppy/oSee, koosta (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: MIBR, Liquid, NaVi, FaZe, Cloud9, Gen.G (ranked in order)
Top Values: BnTeT, MOTM, perfecto, TACO, Bymas