Welcome back to another CS:GO DFS Playbook! Once again, we will only be covering the afternoon four-game BLAST Premier slate. Let’s get into it!
Game 1
Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World ) vs Dignitas (Ranked 40th in World)
Both of these squads got the monkeys off their backs in their prior matches for the BLAST event. Fnatic took down a under-performing, and young talented Virtus Pro team by a result of 16-7 on Train, while Dignitas also took down the same squad by a familiar result of 16-8 on Vertigo on Tuesday. Today, these two get to meet and see which one will come out victorious for the next best of one in this event. Both of these squads are old-school and have played each other tons of times when DIG was NiP, but since turning into DIG, they have played twice this year so far. At the time, I cannot find a line on this game as I suppose it is a bit too early with Fnatic playing in a match as we speak. As far as those two prior head-to-head matches, both teams split it 1-1 in both being best of three series, with Dignitas being the winner by a 2-1 result in their most recent. Both matches did go the full three maps, but we won’t have to worry much about that here with the best of one format. Both teams also had been on quite the skids before winning their prior matches, both losing four of their last five as well. I do think this will be quite a close match, so let’s see if we can narrow down a map that could give us a better look.
I believe the bans we see for these two includes: For fnatic (Vertigo, Dust2, Nuke) and for DIG (Mirage, Inferno, Overpass) thus should leave us with Train. Which I believe gives a slight advantage to Fnatic as they have won 71% there over their last seven attempts, however it is also the typical first map choice of DIG roughly 20% of the time lately. Need to mention that DIG has been on a four-map skid there as well in their last four tries. I feel that there are two maps I feel it could land on being Train first, and then maybe Overpass could be another likely left-over map, if DIG decides they don’t want to go to Train. Both of these maps do favor Fnatic slightly. Let’s see who is playing well on Train. For Fnatic (seven map sample) Brollan leads the way with 1.33 rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.60 IMP, and 86.3 ADR. Followed by all his teammates being over a 1.0 rating starting with KRIMZ at 1.20, flusha at 1.14, JW at 1.12, and Golden at 1.10. For DIG (12 map sample) its f0rest at the top with 1.09 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 77.9 ADR. Followed only by hallzerk at 1.06. For Fnatic on Overpass (12 map sample) flusha heads the team with a 1.23 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 88.8 ADR. Followed up by Brollan at 1.18, KRIMZ at 1.09, and JW at 1.05. For DIG on Overpass (four map sample) GeT_RiGhT leads the way with a 1.10 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 82.2 ADR. Next is hallzerk at 1.07, and then f0rest at 1.05 to round out the list. I have to lean fnatic here, as I feel either one of the maps will give them a slight edge, and fnatic also has the better team statistics as shown above. Let’s talk options.
FNATIC:
ANCHOR: Brollan – (Brollan has been a best in Fnatic’s last two matches, especially in their win over VP last match. Has top 1-2 numbers on both of the likely chosen maps, and likely will be pricey but he has been good)
Top Stacking Options: Brollan, flusha, JW/Krimz
DIGNITAS:
ANCHOR: f0rest – (Just feel his numbers are more consistent, was right up there today in frags with hallzerk, and his numbers are serviceable for the two maps likely in contention here)
Top Stacking Options: f0rest, hallzerk, GeT_RiGhT
Game 2
FURIA (Ranked 8th in World) vs Chaos (Ranked 41st in World)
I am going to go out on a limb and say that FURIA will be quite the chalk on this slate, and over a -300 favorite to win this match as well, and there is not a line currently up yet. Both of these squads come into the match in good form, FURIA took care of Gen.G yesterday with a result of 16-8, while Chaos let one slip as they had MIBR right where they wanted them before allowing them to mount a come-back ending in a 15-15 tie after having a 5-6 round lead. Chaos showed a rookie mistake much like sAw did yesterday morning against ENCE where their aggression and conservative moves didn’t exactly work out the way they had planned, and it ultimately cost them a win. In Chaos’ situation it resulted in a tie however, but still should have been a win. That’s neither here nor there, as I feel FURIA won’t likely be down much, if any at all in this match. FURIA is a damn good team, and I’d likely consider them a top five team at the moment. These two teams did face off last month in the beginning rounds of the DreamHack Masters with FURIA coming out with a 2-1 winning result. The map that Chaos stole was in OT on Nuke in a 19-17 ending score, but the other two maps FURIA pretty much dominated in Inferno 16-11, and Overpass 16-8. Let’s see if we can narrow down a likely map choice here.
I believe the bans we see for these two squads includes: For FURIA (Dust2, Train, ?) and for Chaos (Vertigo, Inferno, Mirage) thus leaving us with either Nuke or Overpass. Nuke would be an edge for FURIA, and not in their win percentage lately on it, but because they have played it a total of nine times lately (only winning 44%), compared to Chaos two attempts lately. Plus, the fact that the competition FUR has played is much better. Overpass would make sense, both have fared well there in small samples winning over 80%. SO, have to stick with my original analysis here and back FUR. They will be pretty chalky, but I think they should win this one. Not going over individual stats for these maps, let’s get to options.
FURIA:
ANCHOR: KSCERATO – (Had a monster match in their prior match against Gen.G and was almost unstoppable, hoping we are getting him on a heater here, so jump on the wave!)
Top Stacking Options: KSCERATO, HEN1, yuurih
CHAOS:
ANCHOR: leaf – (Debut didn’t see to bother him as he had the highest rating on the team in his debut at 1.25, and led the team in frags with a 25-22 K-D and a 1.43 rating as well)
Top Stacking Options: leaf, Xeppaa, steel/jonji
Game 3
100 Thieves (Ranked 11th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 16th in World)
Both of these teams are playing on the later slate on Tuesday, and as I am writing this playbook they have yet to play, so I do apologize, but we can still see what the make-up of the match presents. Once again, we do not have a line currently up for this match, so cannot analyze the betting odds. One big thing that must be presented here is the head-to-head history, and that favors 100T very largely. These two teams have played twice already in 2020, and their last match being just a few weeks ago for the DreamHack Masters with 100T winning both by a 2-0 sweep. Only one map saw Cloud9 reach over 13 round wins and that was a 19-16 map OT loss on Dust2 in their most recent match at DH. Barring their results today, both squads are in search of a win after losing their most recent matches. 100T dropped a 16-12 decision to Evil Geniuses, while Cloud9 dropped a 16-13 Triumph, a match they likely shouldn’t have lost. So, we know the head-to-head history is favoring 100T here, so let’s see if we can project a likely map selection.
I believe the bans for these two squads will include: for 100T (Overpass, Inferno, Dust2) and for Cloud9 (Mirage, Nuke, Vertigo). I feel this would leave us with Train, and I think this makes quite a bit of sense as well. Both teams have won at least 60% or more here lately, only factor that may give cloud9 a slight edge is the fact that they have played this map three times (16 total) as much as 100T has lately (five total) over the past three months. Let’s see who is performing well on Train for these two. For 100T (five map sample) jks tops the charts with a 1.23 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 87.8 ADR. Three others top a 1.0 rating for this map as well with Liazz next at 1.12, jkaem at 1.05, and Gratisfaction at 1.01. For Cloud9 (16 map sample) floppy is at the top here as figured with a 1.18 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.30 IMP, and 83.9 ADR. Two others follow him up here in Sonic at 1.16 and oSee at 1.11 to round out the list. I must say I do feel slightly more confident in 100T here given their prior head-to-head history, but I honestly think this is close. Let’s talk options.
100 THIEVES:
ANCHOR: jks – (Very consistent, top numbers on most maps, and the one we tried to narrow down to as well as mentioned above, and just has really nice upside)
Top Stacking Options: jks, jkaem, Gratisfaction
CLOUD9:
ANCHOR: floppy – (He will likely always be my capt selection for C9 as he is their IGL and he has the highest upside more consistently)
Top Stacking Options: floppy, oSee, Sonic
Game 4
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 9th in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 49th in World)
Another set of teams that have yet to play their afternoon match on Tuesday as I right this article, and again I do apologize. Both of these teams come in to today’s match fresh off a couple wins (barring their results today) with EG beating 100T back-to-back times, and Triumph stealing a win from Cloud9 as mentioned above. These two have played once this year so far, it was in the Road to Rio where EG took a pretty dominating 2-0 sweep with scores of 16-6 on Nuke and 16-14 on Mirage. Once again there is no line currently set on this match, so can’t really analyze the betting odds, but I will easily say that EG will be favored. I’d likely set this line at -160ish. I think it does depend on their results from today’s matches however. IF Triumph somehow finds a close match against 100T, that line could be a little smaller. The main players who helped route the win in the RtR match was Brehze with a 43-30 K-D and 1.35 rating, as well as CeRq with a 40-31 K-D and 1.36 rating. However, all five of EG’s player options secured a rating above a 1.0 for that match. So, with that said, let’s see if we can find a likely map choice for this match.
I believe the map bans for these two squads will include: For EG (Overpass, Vertigo, Dust2) and for TRI (Train, Nuke, Inferno) thus leaving us with Mirage. I could see us also swapping Nuke for Mirage on the TRI bans as Nuke is both teams first pick lately, while both are winning roughly 55% on it as well over their last attempts. So, for that reasoning and logic, I will say Nuke could likely be the left-over map. Let’s see who is playing well here for these squads. For EG (11 map sample) CeRq tops the list with a 1.18 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 78.7 ADR. Followed by Brehze with a 1.12 and Ethan with a 1.05 to round it out. For TRI (11 map sample) Junior lead the way with a 1.18 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 77.7 ADR. Followed by two others with Grim at 1.15 and Curry at 1.08. I like EG in this one, but don’t be shocked if Triumph takes them to the wire if this happens to be the map choice. Let’s talk options.
EVIL GENIUSES:
ANCHOR: CeRq – (Nuke is an AWPer’s paradise, so if it even has a chance of landing here, I want him here)
Top Stacking Options: CerQ, Brehze, Ethan
TRIUMPH:
ANCHOR: Junior – (same scenario as CeRq, he is the AWP for this squad and he tops the charts for individual stats here as well)
Top Stacking Options: Junior, Grim, Curry
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: KSCERATO, Brollan, jks, floppy, leaf, CeRq, Junior (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: FURIA, 100T, Fnatic, Cloud9, DIG, EG, TRI, Chaos
Top Value: jkaem, Ethan, Sonic, Curry, Junior, Liazz, leaf