Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 1
Sean Mitchell brings you all you need with his favorite plays, stacks, and values for Monday's CS:GO DFS slate!
For this Monday in the new month of June, we get a BLAST Premier Spring 2020 slate. It is important to note that these matches are a BEST OF ONE, not a best of three. We have two matches from Group A and two as well from Group B. We have some big names on this slate, so it should be a fun slate. Just know that the strategy changes a bit with the fact that they aren’t best of three, but best of one. Map analysis will not be as easy of course, so can’t exactly rely much on it, more so the individual statistics and looking for those top plays and also the values that will help bolster your lineups. Let’s get into it!
Vitality (Ranked 10th in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 23rd in World)
We get a rubber-match here between these two squads who just played a couple days ago in the DreamHack Masters series. This was the last match that Vitality has played recently, and it just so happened to turn out to be a 2-0 sweep in their favor. ENCE have dropped their last two, both be the 2-0 sweep to both Vitality and NiP. The current betting odds have Vitality listed as a -160 favorite on the money line to win this best of one. Vitality was fueled by big performances from ZywOo, RpK, and apEX in their recent 2-0 sweep over ENCE as all three had at least 38 or more kills and over a 76% K/A%, not to mention ratings over 1.28 for each as well. ENCE was led by their best player in allu, with the new addition Jamppi doing the second most damage, but as we know it wasn’t near enough. Vitality does hold the head-to-head lead on ENCE as well from their prior matches, as they have won three of their prior four matches. Let’s see if we can try to nail down a likely map choice and see who it may benefit the most.
As you know, we have seven maps that can be chosen for this best of one, and I think if we look at the typical ban map picks, compare to the strengths of each team’s best map choice, sometimes it’s a little easier to decipher what map will likely be left at the end of the ban rounds, which there are triple the amount of bans for best of one matches obviously. The first two bans are Train and Vertigo, so throw those out. The next two highest banned picks are Inferno and Mirage, so can likely throw those out. Leaving us with Nuke, Overpass, and Dust2. Believe ENCE will ban Dust2, as it is a typical first choice for Vitality, leaving us with Nuke or Overpass. Think we can kick out Overpass, as it’s one of the least played maps for both squads lately, and Nuke is one of the most played for both. So, I believe we have a decent-sized chance of seeing this one played on Nuke. Let’s see who is playing well for these squads here. For Vitality (eleven map sample) we have ZywOo at the top with 1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 82.4 ADR. Followed by apEX at 1.01 as the only other option above a 1.0 rating for Nuke. For ENCE (seven map sample) allu leads the way of course with a 1.15 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.22 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Two sits above or at the 1.0 threshold on ENCE after allu, Jamppi with 1.08 and SuNny with 1.00. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: allu – (no-brainer, top rated guy here for the team and he generally have nice upside. Lead the team in their prior matches as well)
Top Stacking Options: allu, Jamppi, suNny/SergeJ
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (Real crusher, likely one if not the highest owned played on the slate, but the upside and consistency are there 99% of the time)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, apEX
Mousesports (Ranked 4th in World) vs Dignitas (Ranked 38th in World)
First and foremost, just want to point out that Dignitas hasn’t played in any type of bigger or major event since the Road to Rio, and if you guys have been paying attention lately teams that have had two or more weeks off lately have not fared very well in their return to the serve. Mouse has played three matches so far since the Road to Rio, two in the DreamHack Masters and one in the Gamers without Borders. Mouse lost both the first and second matches in DreamHack but found a pretty big win yesterday against OG in the Gamers without Borders event with a 2-1 result. Mouse was looking very bad, I mean very bad in their first couple matches back after their own break after the RtR event, so hopefully this will be the boost they needed to get back on track. I do favor Mouse at first glance for the rust factor of DIG, and the fact that they have played a few matches lately and got the monkey off their back in their last match. Looks like the books are agreeing here, as they have Mouse listed as a -205 favorite at the current moment on the money line to win this one. DIG was fresh off two losses of their own at the end of Road to Rio with that ultimately led to their exit from the event as well. These two have no prior history, or recent head-to-heads to go off of either, so let’s see if we can look at a map for this match.
The first two banned maps have been Overpass for Mouse and Mirage for DIG. The next two most banned have been Inferno and Vertigo. That will likely leave us with Dust2, Nuke, and Train. Train has been banned the most out of the three, and it is the typical first map chosen by Mouse, so kick it out. Nuke just so happens to be the typical first choice for DIG also, so we can likely count on that one being banned also, leaving us with Dust2. Let’s see if anything pops up from the stats for these two on Dust2. For Mouse (10 map sample) frozen leads the way with a 1.13 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 78.3 ADR. Two others follow in ropz with 1.11 and woxic with 1.08. For DIG (10 map sample) f0rest leads the team with a pretty lowly 1.01 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.01 IMP, and 72.8 ADR. Obviously, we cannot count on this map to be chosen, but if it happens to be picked, we can see that Mouse obviously has the better stats here. I do like the favorite in Mouse here either way. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: frozen – ( I know most will go ropz here and ropz is usually their best guy, but frozen I believe is a nice value capt here and his numbers are the best if this happens to be the map chosen)
Top Stacking Options: frozen, ropz, woxic
ANCHOR: f0rest – (Another value here in the capt spot if you do like DIG. Rates the best on the map as well, not great, but there will be value if you are looking to go contrarian)
Top Stacking Options: f0rest, hallzerk, GeT_RiGhT
Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
Astralis has gotten their team chemistry a bit further after playing a few matches in the DreamHack Masters with newly added player for Gla1ve in JUGi. In their most recent contest, they were 0-2 swept by G2, but I wouldn’t look to far into that, as this was just a huge revenge spot for G2 against them. NiP is fresh off a sweep of their own as a pretty big dog against ENCE. The books are not exactly sure who they like to win this match, as Astralis is just a slight -135 favorite at the current moment. The head-to-head history is also splitting as well, as Astralis has won two of their last three, one was a 2-1 result and the earlier being a 2-0 sweep. They have played twice this year so far with them splitting wins, this was the 2-1 result for Astralis with NiP beating them earlier in the year by the 2-0 sweep, but of course this was all pre-JUGi as well. Astralis has won four of their last five matches however, while NiP was on a pretty bad skid dropping their first two matches in the DreamHack masters before sweeping ENCE in their most recent match. That’s also the big thing about best of ones, literally any team can have a good map in a best of one, so let’s see if we can pick a likely map choice for this match.
The first two ban maps for these two squads typically is Dust2 and Mirage. The next most banned is Nuke, which is also Astralis’s usual first map choice, so can kick it out. Overpass has been a usual map pick for NiP, so can throw it out. Leaving us with Inferno, Vertigo, or Train. Astralis has won nine-straight on Inferno, so likely see that one gone, and Vertigo has been a map both have been good on, but NiP winning over 80% of their last 11 there. I could easily see this match going to Train. Let’s see who is good on Train. For Astralis (six map sample) device is at the top as you could assume with a 1.19 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 81.8 ADR. Not a single other player has a rating above 0.98 (Magisk) here. For NiP (seven map sample) Plopski (who got back on track bigly last match) leads the way with 1.09 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.07 IMP, and 77.4 ADR. Two others follow with nawwk at 1.07 and REZ at 1.05. I honestly think there is a smidge of value on NiP here. They come in fresh off a nice win, hopefully have some confidence back, and we have seen that they can beat Astralis due to the prior head-to-head history. Both teams have new pieces and have had a few matches to get acquainted and acclimated, so I think we see a highly competitive match here. Leverage is likely NiP on this slate with everyone looking to play Astralis with them being the #1 ranked team in the World (public perception is a thing, folks). Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: device – (Easily the best player on the team, and might easily be a top 3 player on the server as a whole)
Top Stacking Options: device, magisk, JUGi/dupreeh
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Really looked great in their last match and leads the team on most maps. He has the upside to be one of the higher scoring players on the slate if he is clicking)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, nawwk, REZ
Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World) vs MAD Lions (Ranked 12th in World)
Another really good match-up here between two really good teams. Fnatic has really been playing poopy lately to put it lightly, as they have dropped four of their last five matches, while getting swept in all four losses as well. MAD comes in with two matches lately in the DreamHack also, where they dropped their first match to Complexity by the 0-2 sweep, and then got a sweep of their own against Mousesports in their most recent match. The books have fnatic listed as the favorite currently listed at -140 on the money line. These two squads played just one match and it was back in October of 2019, where fnatic beat them 2-0. Not really a whole lot of data to go off of here, fnatic is listed as the favorite, but ill be flat out honest with their recent form they shouldn’t be favored over a lower-tier team at the time. Let’s see if we can find a map.
The first two banned maps typically for these two squads is Vertigo and Inferno. The next two most banned is Dust2 and Nuke. Leaving us with Overpass, Train, and Mirage. MAD have won 75% of their last eight on Mirage, so can likely toss that one. Train is a pretty decent-sized ban for fnatic, but MAD has not played Overpass any at all over their last 3 months. I think we see something odd here, and I think we can see either Train or Overpass. I lean Train. Both have won roughly 60% here lately as well. Let’s see who is playing well on Train. For fnatic (six map sample) Brollan tops the list with a 1.28 rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.55 IMP, and 85.2 ADR. Followed by KRIMZ at 1.22, flusha at 1.08, and even Golden has a 1.07 here as well. For MAD (five map sample) sjuush leads the way with a 1.26 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 86.1 ADR. Followed closely by Bubzkji at 1.23, acoR at 1.17, and AcilioN at 1.07 as well. I think this will be a decently close match, and I don’t see just a huge edge for either team, and even though fnatic has not looked good lately, it is just one map they have to win. I believe MAD will have decent value, but not as much leverage here as say NiP. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Brollan – (Top fragger, only other option I would consider is KRIMZ)
Top Stacking Options: Brollan, Krimz, flusha
ANCHOR: Bubzkji – (He is their best player and he has nice upside. Second best rating by not a large gap on projected map, and leads the team on many of the maps as well)
Top Stacking Options: Bubzkji, sjuush, acoR
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, device, allu, Plopski, frozen, Brollan, Bubzkji, f0rest (Ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Mouse, Vitality, NiP, Astralis, fnatics, MAD, ENCE, Dignitas (Ranked in order)
Top Values: Woxic, JUGi, apEX, shox, acoR, suNny (Ranked in order)